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World Peace Summit in Wellington, NZ
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| Time position | Words |
|---|---|
| 00:00:01 | This section deals with the science of climate change. |
| 00:00:07 | Something I read a while ago suggests that there |
| 00:00:09 | are different attitudes that you can have towards the Earth. |
| 00:00:12 | One is that the Earth is sacred. Another is that the Earth is vulnerable. |
| 00:00:16 | And the third is that, in some sense, |
| 00:00:19 | the Earth could retaliate against our foolishness. |
| 00:00:21 | Many of the perceptions that come in those |
| 00:00:24 | last two categories, the vulnerability and the retaliation, |
| 00:00:27 | come from a scientific reading of what is currently going on. |
| 00:00:31 | Our first speaker in this section is Dr. |
| 00:00:34 | David Ratt, General Manager, Climate Change at NIWA, |
| 00:00:37 | the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, |
| 00:00:40 | and he will address us on the global |
| 00:00:43 | science of climate change and the challenges for global communities. |
| 00:00:47 | Dr. Ratt is also a member of the |
| 00:00:50 | United Nations International Panel on Climate Change, |
| 00:00:52 | which was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize last year for its work. |
| 00:00:55 | The title of his address is "Changing World and Changing People." |
| 00:01:00 | Welcome, Dr. David Ratt. |
| 00:01:05 | Thank you very much, Swamiji, distinguished delegates and speakers, |
| 00:01:14 | ladies and gentlemen. I'm very pleased to have been |
| 00:01:17 | invited to come and speak to you on this |
| 00:01:19 | very important topic of climate change. What I've been asked |
| 00:01:22 | to do is, I think, to kind of set |
| 00:01:25 | the scene a little bit for you in terms |
| 00:01:28 | of the science. What are the scientists saying has |
| 00:01:30 | happened and is likely to happen, and what can we |
| 00:01:33 | do about it? And what I'll really be basing a lot |
| 00:01:36 | of what I'll be talking about will be |
| 00:01:38 | on the work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, |
| 00:01:40 | which, as many of you will know, |
| 00:01:42 | did a major assessment of what we know about climate. |
| 00:01:44 | Change, which was completed last year. |
| 00:01:48 | So, what I'm planning to do—this is just an outline |
| 00:01:55 | of what I'll cover—I want to talk a bit |
| 00:01:58 | about what's happening to the globe, what are we observing, |
| 00:02:01 | and what are the causes of what we're seeing. |
| 00:02:04 | What does that mean in terms |
| 00:02:06 | of what may happen in the future, |
| 00:02:09 | and what impacts are those changes having already and |
| 00:02:12 | likely to have in the future? |
| 00:02:14 | Then, I want to talk a bit about |
| 00:02:16 | the kind of reductions in emissions of greenhouse gases |
| 00:02:19 | that the science is suggesting we really need |
| 00:02:21 | to be thinking about seriously, if we're going |
| 00:02:24 | to at least not get into some of the |
| 00:02:27 | Worst of the impacts, and then I'll finish up with |
| 00:02:29 | some conclusions. |
| 00:02:30 | And I guess part of what's behind this is really setting, I guess, |
| 00:02:34 | a little bit of what the challenges are to us as global citizens, |
| 00:02:39 | the challenges to the countries of the world |
| 00:02:41 | in terms of trying to deal with reducing emissions, |
| 00:02:44 | and also the challenges that we face. |
| 00:02:46 | Particularly in some of the developing countries, |
| 00:02:49 | and that we face as developed countries, |
| 00:02:51 | helping the developing countries in really |
| 00:02:53 | adapting and dealing with some of the |
| 00:02:54 | changes that are likely to happen. |
| 00:02:57 | So that's what I'm going to talk about. |
| 00:03:02 | The first point I wanted to make was that |
| 00:03:04 | there's no doubt that the climate is changing. |
| 00:03:07 | If you look at these pictures I've got up on the screen here, |
| 00:03:10 | this shows how the temperature has changed over the last 100 years. |
| 00:03:14 | It sort of fluctuated up and down a bit up until about 1900, |
| 00:03:18 | but since then it has been warming. |
| 00:03:20 | And there's been a warming of about, I think, |
| 00:03:22 | 0.7 of a degree for the globe over the last century. |
| 00:03:24 | At the same time, if we look at sea level, |
| 00:03:28 | sea levels were increasing a little bit through the 19th century, |
| 00:03:32 | but have been increasing more rapidly through the 20th century. |
| 00:03:35 | There were about 17 or 18 centimeters of |
| 00:03:37 | global sea level rise over the last century. |
| 00:03:40 | And it's a little bit unclear yet. |
| 00:03:43 | It may have started to rise a little |
| 00:03:45 | bit more rapidly towards the end of that period. |
| 00:03:48 | We know from observations we've got of snow cover |
| 00:03:51 | at the end of summer in the Northern Hemisphere that, |
| 00:03:53 | again, it fluctuates around, but over the last few decades, overall, |
| 00:03:57 | the amount of snow cover around the globe |
| 00:04:00 | has been decreasing, more in the Northern Hemisphere at the end of summer. |
| 00:04:04 | And to put it in a longer term perspective, |
| 00:04:06 | what I've shown here is various estimates of what the temperature |
| 00:04:09 | of the Northern Hemisphere has been like over the last 1,200 years or so. |
| 00:04:15 | And you can see that it probably has fluctuated up and down a bit. |
| 00:04:18 | This is estimated from things like tree rings and air trapped in ice. |
| 00:04:22 | And the Antarctic and so on. But the real thing that you can see here |
| 00:04:27 | is that the last 50 years in particular have really been unusually warm |
| 00:04:32 | compared to over the last 1,000 years. So as I say, there's no doubt |
| 00:04:38 | that the world's climate is warming, and there have been some other changes |
| 00:04:43 | over that period as well. We know that essentially the amount of... |
| 00:04:50 | I talked a little bit about the snow and ice |
| 00:04:51 | at the end of summer in the northern hemisphere, |
| 00:04:55 | but we've also read a lot about the way that the amount of floating ice |
| 00:04:59 | in the Arctic has been decreasing. |
| 00:05:02 | We've just been hearing about the break-up of some of the ice shelves |
| 00:05:05 | in the Antarctic, if you've been watching or looking at the media |
| 00:05:08 | just over the last day or two. |
| 00:05:10 | There has been warming of permafrost, and overall, around the world, |
| 00:05:15 | our mountain glaciers have declined quite a |
| 00:05:17 | lot over the last 100 or 200 years. |
| 00:05:21 | It's not just the surface of the world. |
| 00:05:22 | The oceans have warmed down to a depth of about 3,000 metres or so. |
| 00:05:27 | And in fact, of the extra heat |
| 00:05:29 | that's coming in because of the greenhouse gases, |
| 00:05:31 | which I'll explain a little bit later on, |
| 00:05:33 | something like 80% of that heat has gone into the oceans. |
| 00:05:37 | We also know, and this isn't so much about climate, |
| 00:05:40 | but as you get more carbon dioxide in the surface layers of the oceans, |
| 00:05:44 | that makes the oceans a little more acidic. |
| 00:05:46 | And the pH, which is the scientific measure of how acidic the oceans are, |
| 00:05:50 | has actually decreased over the last 100 years or so, |
| 00:05:53 | and we expect it to decrease further. |
| 00:05:55 | And that has potentially got some rather worrying implications |
| 00:05:58 | for many of the organisms in the ocean which have shells |
| 00:06:01 | that are built out of calcium carbonate. |
| 00:06:03 | If the oceans get more acidic, we don't really know |
| 00:06:06 | what the implications are for those. |
| 00:06:08 | As well as temperature, which is kind of the thing |
| 00:06:11 | that people think about most, you know, global warming, |
| 00:06:13 | those sorts of things, one of the more important issues |
| 00:06:16 | is probably rainfall. We just depend so much on water around the world |
| 00:06:20 | for so much of the way we live and develop, |
| 00:06:23 | and there have been some changes already. |
| 00:06:25 | Precipitation means rainfall and snowfall, |
| 00:06:28 | so there's been more drought in some continental locations. |
| 00:06:31 | And in many parts of the world, there's some evidence |
| 00:06:34 | that there's been more frequent, very heavy rainfall as well. |
| 00:06:38 | And the other thing, which is certainly a concern |
| 00:06:41 | in this part of the world or for the small islands to our north, |
| 00:06:44 | is that at least in the North Atlantic, |
| 00:06:46 | there's good evidence that there have |
| 00:06:47 | not necessarily been more tropical cyclones. |
| 00:06:49 | Cyclones, but the most intense tropical cyclones, |
| 00:06:52 | the strongest ones, there have been more of those. |
| 00:06:55 | And although the best evidence is for |
| 00:06:57 | the North Atlantic, there are some hints that |
| 00:06:58 | that's been happening in other parts of the world as well. |
| 00:07:01 | So many things are changing in our climate. |
| 00:07:04 | So, as our chair mentioned at the beginning, |
| 00:07:07 | I've been involved with the Intergovernmental |
| 00:07:10 | Panel on Climate Change, which is a major |
| 00:07:14 | process that involves many of the most able |
| 00:07:18 | climate scientists from around the world. |
| 00:07:20 | Assessing what we know about the climate, |
| 00:07:22 | and then a lot of review of that |
| 00:07:23 | by other scientists and governments and so on. |
| 00:07:26 | And at the end of that process, |
| 00:07:28 | Working Group One of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change |
| 00:07:30 | concluded that warming of the climate system is unequivocal. |
| 00:07:34 | There's really no doubt that the world is warming up. |
| 00:07:40 | Now, what else do we know? |
| 00:07:42 | We know that the concentrations of |
| 00:07:44 | various greenhouse gases have increased substantially |
| 00:07:46 | since the beginning of the industrial era, really. |
| 00:07:52 | For example, this is carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, |
| 00:07:55 | showing that from 10... |
| 00:07:57 | Well, actually, it looks a bit like this if you go even further back, |
| 00:07:59 | although there are a few more ups and downs. |
| 00:08:01 | But looking at the last 10,000 years, |
| 00:08:04 | there was a bit of up and down, a bit of increase. |
| 00:08:06 | But then, back around about 1800, |
| 00:08:10 | the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere started to increase. |
| 00:08:13 | And it's just gone off like a rocket here, really. |
| 00:08:15 | So we've now got more than 30% more carbon dioxide in |
| 00:08:18 | the atmosphere than what we had a couple of hundred years ago. |
| 00:08:22 | The amount of methane in the atmosphere has more than doubled. |
| 00:08:25 | You can see the similar increase here. |
| 00:08:28 | And the amount of nitrous oxide has also gone up. |
| 00:08:31 | And these are all greenhouse gases, which I'll talk about in a minute. |
| 00:08:34 | And I guess, as many of you are aware, |
| 00:08:37 | for New Zealand, methane and nitrous oxide are important greenhouse gases |
| 00:08:39 | because that's what many of our agricultural activities generate: |
| 00:08:43 | dairy farming, sheep farming, and so on. |
| 00:08:47 | So there's no doubt as well that |
| 00:08:49 | various greenhouse gas concentrations have gone up, |
| 00:08:51 | and from various other scientific evidence, |
| 00:08:54 | we know that most of this increase here |
| 00:08:56 | is due to things like burning fossil fuels. |
| 00:08:58 | And a bit of deforestation as well. |
| 00:09:00 | So these increases have been caused by human activities. |
| 00:09:08 | Now, I don't want to spend a whole |
| 00:09:10 | lot of time explaining the greenhouse effect to you, |
| 00:09:11 | but basically, because of these greenhouse |
| 00:09:14 | gases—and another important greenhouse gas is water vapor—so |
| 00:09:17 | there is quite a lot of moisture in the atmosphere. |
| 00:09:20 | Essentially, what they do is trap |
| 00:09:22 | heat from the sun in the atmosphere. |
| 00:09:24 | And if we didn't have those greenhouse gases there, |
| 00:09:27 | the world would be something like 30 |
| 00:09:28 | degrees cooler than what it is at present. |
| 00:09:30 | So we really rely on the natural level of greenhouse gases |
| 00:09:34 | to have a world that's a pleasant place to live. |
| 00:09:37 | But the problem is that when we put more of these greenhouse gases in, |
| 00:09:41 | what the science is telling us |
| 00:09:43 | is that that will further increase the temperature |
| 00:09:45 | and move us out of that kind of comfortable area of |
| 00:09:49 | temperature and rainfall, and so on, that we're in at present. |
| 00:09:53 | You may have heard very skeptical people say, "Well, |
| 00:09:55 | the science is just ignoring water vapor, |
| 00:09:58 | and water vapor is the most important greenhouse gas." |
| 00:10:00 | Well, water vapor is responsible for something |
| 00:10:03 | like 60% of this natural greenhouse effect, |
| 00:10:06 | the thing that makes the world a habitable place. |
| 00:10:08 | But normally, if you just put a bit more water vapour in the atmosphere, |
| 00:10:12 | there are huge sources of water vapour, all the oceans and so on, |
| 00:10:15 | and what happens is after a little while it just rains out again, |
| 00:10:18 | so it doesn't make much difference. |
| 00:10:19 | But if you put more carbon dioxide... |
| 00:10:21 | In the atmosphere from burning fossil fuels, |
| 00:10:23 | and that starts to warm the atmosphere up further. Then, |
| 00:10:26 | as the atmosphere gets warmer, it actually can hold more water vapor, |
| 00:10:30 | so that you tend to evaporate more water out |
| 00:10:32 | of the oceans and so on into the atmosphere. |
| 00:10:34 | And that reinforces the warming that comes from carbon dioxide. |
| 00:10:37 | So scientists certainly are taking careful account of water vapor, |
| 00:10:41 | and the net effect of all of these things is |
| 00:10:44 | already some warming. And we expect substantial future warming if |
| 00:10:47 | we continue down the track that we're on as human beings. |
| 00:10:53 | So why is it that scientists and the Intergovernmental Panel on |
| 00:10:57 | Climate Change are saying that a substantial part of the recent warming |
| 00:11:00 | we've been seeing has been caused by human activities, and not just |
| 00:11:04 | by changes in energy coming from the sun or something like that? |
| 00:11:08 | Well, this is one of the diagrams out of the latest IPCC assessment, |
| 00:11:14 | and what it's basically showing is, |
| 00:11:16 | going from 1900 through to 2000, |
| 00:11:19 | the black line is the way the average temperature has changed over |
| 00:11:23 | each of the continents. |
| 00:11:25 | And you can see that over all of the continents, |
| 00:11:28 | except for Antarctica, where things are a little bit different |
| 00:11:30 | because Antarctica is rather separated off by global |
| 00:11:33 | circulation from the way the rest of |
| 00:11:35 | the world behaves, the temperature has increased. |
| 00:11:37 | It's increased everywhere. It's gone up and down a bit, |
| 00:11:39 | but overall we've got the same pattern of warming, |
| 00:11:41 | particularly over the last 50 years, |
| 00:11:43 | that we've seen for the globe as a whole, and what the scientists |
| 00:11:48 | who are involved in studying these things... |
| 00:11:50 | Have tried doing is that they've actually developed |
| 00:11:52 | computer models, which they put all of this |
| 00:11:54 | physics of what's going on into them. And what they can do is, they can |
| 00:11:58 | first of all run those models just putting in the natural changes |
| 00:12:02 | and things that might affect the climate. |
| 00:12:04 | Like changes in energy coming from the sun, |
| 00:12:06 | volcanic eruptions, all those sorts of things, |
| 00:12:08 | just the natural things that happen. And if we do that, |
| 00:12:11 | it depends a bit on whichever model you use, |
| 00:12:14 | but basically what the climate models say... |
| 00:12:16 | Is that if you just put in natural things, |
| 00:12:18 | what would have happened over the last century |
| 00:12:20 | should have been what's shown by this blue bar here: a bit of up and |
| 00:12:24 | down in temperature, but no overall long-term trend. But if we |
| 00:12:28 | also put in the increase in greenhouse gases, |
| 00:12:30 | The carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels |
| 00:12:33 | and so on, as well as these natural things, what we get are these |
| 00:12:37 | pink-shaded areas. So once you put the greenhouse gases in, |
| 00:12:41 | you do manage to explain this recent warming. And to turn it around the |
| 00:12:45 | other way, there really seems to be no way to explain this warming. |
| 00:12:48 | Going on all over the globe, except by saying the causative, |
| 00:12:53 | the cause really is that increase in greenhouse gases. |
| 00:12:56 | So, looking at this and various other evidence, |
| 00:13:00 | what the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded was |
| 00:13:04 | that most of the—this is science talk. |
| 00:13:06 | But I think it's fairly straightforward. Most of |
| 00:13:08 | the observed increase in globally averaged |
| 00:13:10 | temperatures since the middle of the 20th century is very likely, |
| 00:13:14 | and by that, these are really cautious scientists, |
| 00:13:16 | all the people, they say there's at least |
| 00:13:18 | a 90% chance that this is the cause. |
| 00:13:20 | Very likely due to the increase |
| 00:13:22 | in greenhouse gas concentrations, and that increase |
| 00:13:24 | is because of largely fossil fuel burning. |
| 00:13:26 | The other thing, which there's |
| 00:13:28 | been quite a lot of stuff in the media again about, |
| 00:13:30 | is people arguing that, well, maybe it's due |
| 00:13:32 | to changes in energy coming from the sun |
| 00:13:34 | or energy from the sun reaching the earth. |
| 00:13:37 | But there's been a lot of very careful work on that, |
| 00:13:39 | and basically, if we go back since pre-industrial times, |
| 00:13:43 | the changes we would have expected to see |
| 00:13:45 | because of changes in energy getting to us from the sun |
| 00:13:48 | are 10% or less of the changes we expect to see. |
| 00:13:51 | From those increases in greenhouse gases. |
| 00:13:53 | So the world's warming up, and there's really no doubt |
| 00:13:56 | but that a substantial fraction of that is because of the greenhouse gases. |
| 00:14:02 | I guess the next question is, what does this mean for the future? |
| 00:14:05 | And basically, what I've shown here |
| 00:14:08 | is projections from global climate models. |
| 00:14:11 | We don't know exactly what's going to happen with greenhouse gases, |
| 00:14:13 | because that depends on how we develop in an economic way. |
| 00:14:16 | So what we've done is that we've looked at various different scenarios. |
| 00:14:19 | If we were able to hold the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere |
| 00:14:22 | at what they are today, we'd get this line here. |
| 00:14:24 | We'd still get on the order of 0.6 or 0.7 of a degree of warming |
| 00:14:27 | over the coming 100 years. If we go down a more likely track |
| 00:14:31 | without trying to substantially reduce our emissions, |
| 00:14:34 | we'll probably see somewhere between about 2 and 4 degrees of warming |
| 00:14:37 | over the coming century, as well as various other things: |
| 00:14:40 | more heat waves, more tropical cyclones, more acidification of the ocean. |
| 00:14:44 | More loss of Arctic ice |
| 00:14:46 | and global sea level rise of somewhere |
| 00:14:49 | on the order of 20 to 60 centimeters, |
| 00:14:51 | but maybe a bit more than that, because there's concern at present |
| 00:14:55 | that the science really doesn't fully understand |
| 00:14:57 | the rate at which the ice in Greenland is melting. So that could add |
| 00:15:01 | at least another 20 centimeters, maybe even more over the next century. |
| 00:15:05 | So that's sort of what we expect to see. I'll try again. |
| 00:15:10 | But it's not going to change the same everywhere. |
| 00:15:13 | What this shows is for December, January, February, |
| 00:15:18 | basically in June, July, August, projected |
| 00:15:20 | changes in rainfall around the world in |
| 00:15:21 | 100 years'time. And the point here, as you can see, |
| 00:15:24 | is that there are some areas where the models |
| 00:15:26 | are suggesting it's going to get drier, |
| 00:15:27 | and there are other areas where |
| 00:15:29 | they're suggesting it's going to get wetter. |
| 00:15:31 | And this is again where this whole global issue comes out, |
| 00:15:34 | that what we're doing in developed countries may have rather more impacts |
| 00:15:38 | on some of the people living in developing countries, |
| 00:15:41 | and trying to adapt to those changes is going to be very challenging. |
| 00:15:44 | The other point is that these are the various different climate models, |
| 00:15:47 | but most of them predict rather more warming up in the Arctic, |
| 00:15:50 | more rapid warming, than in other parts. |
| 00:15:52 | The deeper colors are faster warming, |
| 00:15:55 | and a bit less warming in the southern oceans down around New Zealand |
| 00:15:58 | because of the time it takes for the oceans to warm up. |
| 00:16:04 | Looking out further into the future, |
| 00:16:05 | I talked about what might happen in the coming 100 years, |
| 00:16:07 | but if we continue down this track of continuing |
| 00:16:10 | to burn lots of coal and oil and so on, |
| 00:16:12 | there's a worry that eventually much of Greenland might melt. |
| 00:16:16 | Maybe over a period of hundreds of |
| 00:16:18 | years to 1,000 years, something like that. |
| 00:16:20 | And if that happens, we'd be looking at rises |
| 00:16:23 | in sea level of maybe 7 meters or something, |
| 00:16:26 | and that would have just huge impacts around the globe. |
| 00:16:29 | So what we do as humans over the coming few decades |
| 00:16:32 | may actually be setting up substantial problems |
| 00:16:34 | for our children and their children way into the future. |
| 00:16:38 | And if we're going to be responsible, |
| 00:16:39 | we need to think carefully about that, I believe. |
| 00:16:43 | Now, I'm not going to take you through all of this in detail. |
| 00:16:47 | The Working Group 2 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change |
| 00:16:49 | produced a great, big, thick book |
| 00:16:51 | looking at impacts and adaptation to climate change. |
| 00:16:53 | And this is the diagram where they tried to summarize impacts |
| 00:16:56 | on different sectors: water, ecosystems, food, and so on. |
| 00:16:59 | Just a couple of things I wanted to |
| 00:17:01 | point out: what they're suggesting is that for |
| 00:17:03 | a warming of a couple of degrees in our global temperatures, |
| 00:17:06 | we'd see millions more people experiencing coastal flooding each year. |
| 00:17:11 | For three degrees of warming, something like 30% |
| 00:17:13 | of global coastal wetlands might be lost. |
| 00:17:16 | And already, we're starting to see increased coral bleaching. |
| 00:17:20 | Now, when you start to look at all of this and look at this question |
| 00:17:23 | about how much warming can the globe really stand |
| 00:17:26 | before we get substantial impacts. |
| 00:17:28 | This is why many countries are starting to talk about a warming |
| 00:17:31 | of no more than about two degrees, |
| 00:17:33 | trying to hold the warming compared to pre-industrial, |
| 00:17:37 | about one and a half degrees compared to 1990, |
| 00:17:40 | or two degrees compared to pre-industrial. |
| 00:17:42 | So that we don't get too far into many of these impacts here. |
| 00:17:49 | OK, and the IPCC also sort of teased out some of these reasons for concern |
| 00:17:54 | if we let things go too far down the track. |
| 00:17:56 | Risks to unique and threatened systems, |
| 00:17:58 | risks of extreme weather events, more drought and heat waves. |
| 00:18:02 | I think, again, this is a really important one, |
| 00:18:04 | that the risks are generally greater for low-latitude |
| 00:18:07 | and less developed areas of the world |
| 00:18:09 | than for the more developed countries. |
| 00:18:10 | And we've certainly got more capability |
| 00:18:12 | in the developed countries to cope with them. |
| 00:18:15 | And as time goes on, we expect to see more impacts. |
| 00:18:18 | And as I said, looking further out, there could be worries about things |
| 00:18:21 | like most of Greenland melting, for example. |
| 00:18:23 | So certainly, there is potential for some substantial impacts. |
| 00:18:28 | Now, I mentioned that basically many |
| 00:18:30 | countries are thinking about something like |
| 00:18:32 | two degrees as what we should try to hold our warming within. |
| 00:18:37 | And the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change |
| 00:18:40 | looked at essentially how much we could increase |
| 00:18:43 | the greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere long |
| 00:18:46 | term and keep within certain areas of warming. |
| 00:18:49 | So to keep within about two degrees, basically what we need to do is try |
| 00:18:54 | and stabilize greenhouse gases at a carbon |
| 00:18:57 | dioxide equivalence of about 450 parts per million. |
| 00:19:00 | And we're currently at 375 parts per million carbon dioxide equivalent now. |
| 00:19:04 | But one of the worries is we have |
| 00:19:06 | many small aerosol particles, which are actually offsetting warming. |
| 00:19:09 | If we clean up a lot of our emissions, |
| 00:19:11 | those aerosols will go, and things will tend to warm rather more. |
| 00:19:14 | But the basic bottom line I want to really |
| 00:19:17 | point out to you is that if we're going to |
| 00:19:21 | be serious about trying to hold warming to no more |
| 00:19:24 | than a couple of degrees or so, to try to |
| 00:19:28 | at least stop some of the more worrying potential future... |
| 00:19:31 | Impacts, then we're going to have to reduce, globally, |
| 00:19:35 | we're going to have to reduce our carbon dioxide emissions by |
| 00:19:39 | something like 50% to 85% below present levels by 2050. |
| 00:19:42 | And we already heard the High Commissioner from India |
| 00:19:45 | talk about the fact that people in India |
| 00:19:48 | are not putting out anything like the same amount of emissions |
| 00:19:50 | as we are in developing countries. |
| 00:19:52 | What this really means is that if we're serious about things, |
| 00:19:54 | we've got to reduce our emissions in developed countries |
| 00:19:56 | even further than this. What can we do? |
| 00:20:01 | Again, this is just a quick overview. |
| 00:20:03 | What the IPCC looked at was the potential |
| 00:20:05 | in various areas of what we do to reduce emissions |
| 00:20:09 | for various prices on carbon. Again, I won't go into the detail here, |
| 00:20:14 | but the main point I wanted to make is that buildings, |
| 00:20:18 | not just designing buildings which you have |
| 00:20:20 | to use huge amounts of energy to |
| 00:20:22 | heat in winter and huge amounts of energy to cool in summer, |
| 00:20:26 | there's a major capability or capacity to |
| 00:20:28 | Reduce emissions through better design of buildings. |
| 00:20:30 | I think we'll be hearing a bit more about that later on. |
| 00:20:32 | But also through getting more public |
| 00:20:35 | transport, energy supply, more renewable energy, |
| 00:20:37 | and agriculture, there are |
| 00:20:40 | many potential ways of reducing emissions. |
| 00:20:42 | But what seems to be coming through is |
| 00:20:45 | we can't rely on any one silver bullet. |
| 00:20:47 | We're going to have to do things across all of these areas. |
| 00:20:50 | But I do think that looking at buildings |
| 00:20:52 | is one of the important places to start. |
| 00:20:55 | And obviously for New Zealand, if we |
| 00:20:57 | can find ways of reducing agricultural emissions, |
| 00:20:58 | that would be really good as well. |
| 00:21:02 | So, in conclusion, basically, the climate is changing. |
| 00:21:06 | There's no doubt about that. |
| 00:21:08 | As a result of the greenhouse gases from |
| 00:21:10 | our human activities, burning fossil fuels and so on, |
| 00:21:13 | impacts are already occurring, but if we continue down |
| 00:21:15 | the track we're on, we're going to see much |
| 00:21:18 | more substantial changes and impacts in the future. |
| 00:21:21 | Deciding what is a dangerous change, |
| 00:21:23 | whether it is two degrees or whatever, |
| 00:21:25 | is really a political decision, and what the science can do |
| 00:21:27 | is provide some evidence to help people decide |
| 00:21:29 | where that might be. But basically, if we say |
| 00:21:32 | something like two degrees of warming would |
| 00:21:34 | be dangerous, then we're talking about needing to |
| 00:21:36 | reduce our emissions by something like 50 to |
| 00:21:40 | 80% over the next few decades. Even if |
| 00:21:44 | we do that, some change is inevitable because |
| 00:21:47 | of the delays built into the system. And again, |
| 00:21:50 | thinking about this from a global perspective, |
| 00:21:53 | that puts a real responsibility in us, I believe, |
| 00:21:55 | both in terms of thinking about designing things |
| 00:21:57 | in New Zealand so we don't do things |
| 00:22:00 | In floodplains and all those sorts of things, |
| 00:22:02 | but about how we can help people in the neighbouring |
| 00:22:05 | Pacific countries, for example, adapt to the problems that will come with |
| 00:22:09 | rising sea levels. |
| 00:22:12 | But all of that said, nevertheless, if as human beings we can really get |
| 00:22:17 | our act together, then through a |
| 00:22:19 | combination of mitigation, which is reducing emissions, |
| 00:22:22 | and adapting to the changes which are going to happen anyway, |
| 00:22:25 | We certainly can significantly reduce those risks. Thank you very much. |
| 00:22:30 | Thank you very much, David. That was the global picture. |
| 00:22:46 | A question more and more frequently asked is this. |
| 00:22:51 | With rising seas and storms, how will |
| 00:22:55 | climate change impact the Pacific, our backyard? |
| 00:22:59 | To address that, please welcome Pene Lefale. |
| 00:23:02 | He's the Manager of International |
| 00:23:04 | Cooperation and Development for MetService, |
| 00:23:06 | and he will talk to us on our region and our neighbours, Pene Lefale. |
| 00:23:17 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. |
| 00:23:24 | You will be disappointed that the actual title of |
| 00:23:29 | my talk is different from that in the program. |
| 00:23:35 | It's just that we had some sort of |
| 00:23:38 | miscommunication between myself and the organizers of the conference. |
| 00:23:41 | Nevertheless, a lot of these signs on the Pacific Islands |
| 00:23:47 | are in Chapter 16 of our Working Group 2 IPCC report, |
| 00:23:53 | which I was one of the lead authors for, |
| 00:23:56 | so please go to the IPCC website and |
| 00:23:59 | pick up on Chapter 16. I chose this |
| 00:24:03 | topic myself based on the paper that I'm preparing |
| 00:24:06 | to be published in one of the journals, |
| 00:24:08 | and I thought, when I look at the |
| 00:24:11 | title of this World Summit, it's really |
| 00:24:15 | relevant to talk more about what I now |
| 00:24:19 | call the climate change of the self. |
| 00:24:23 | A perfect political dilemma. These views are basically |
| 00:24:27 | my own as a former advisor to the |
| 00:24:30 | Alliance of Small Island States and my involvement |
| 00:24:32 | in the climate negotiations going back to 1988 |
| 00:24:36 | up until the adoption of the Kyoto Protocol |
| 00:24:40 | in 1997. So the outline of the talk is, |
| 00:24:47 | I'm going to briefly talk about the current climate, |
| 00:24:55 | escape from the political sense, the science. |
| 00:24:58 | Well, David has already covered that, so I'm |
| 00:25:01 | not going to repeat the findings of the IPCC report. |
| 00:25:05 | And then I'll focus more on the perfect |
| 00:25:07 | political dilemmas, because that's really relevant |
| 00:25:09 | to what we're discussing here today. |
| 00:25:12 | And then briefly provide an overview of the |
| 00:25:15 | issues for New Zealand and small Pacific states, |
| 00:25:18 | and then a summary of findings and conclusions. |
| 00:25:24 | So, what are the key issues facing us in the climate scape politically? |
| 00:25:28 | Well, David has already covered the science, |
| 00:25:31 | but basically I want to point out two key points. |
| 00:25:34 | The first is that global emissions have grown since |
| 00:25:39 | pre-industrial times, with an increase of 70% between 1970 and 2004. |
| 00:25:45 | So there's no doubt, even after more than 20 years |
| 00:25:49 | of negotiations, we can still see |
| 00:25:51 | global greenhouse gas emissions increasing. |
| 00:25:53 | So it's not going down at all. |
| 00:25:56 | And then the second key point that I want to point out is that, |
| 00:25:59 | even if taken into account, current climate change mitigation policies |
| 00:26:02 | and related sustainable development practices, |
| 00:26:05 | such as those articulated under the Kyoto Protocol, |
| 00:26:09 | the global emissions will continue to grow over the next few decades. |
| 00:26:14 | So, again, it's a very pessimistic view. And why is that? |
| 00:26:22 | This is basically the current situation within the political arena. |
| 00:26:29 | We saw the U.S. pulling out in 2001, and yet |
| 00:26:33 | they are the largest emitter of CO2 in the world. |
| 00:26:38 | They are not a party to the Kyoto Protocol. |
| 00:26:41 | That created a lot of problems within the international system. |
| 00:26:44 | The other key contentious issue that we're seeing is what I call the |
| 00:26:50 | non-Annex One parties to the UNFCCC, to the convention, or we refer to as |
| 00:26:57 | G77 and China, the group of G77 and China, are exempt from taking |
| 00:27:03 | on what we term quantified emission reduction |
| 00:27:06 | limitation commitment targets under the Kyoto Protocol. |
| 00:27:09 | And you hear that a lot coming from the current U.S. |
| 00:27:13 | Administration pointing out why India, China, Brazil, |
| 00:27:16 | and so forth are not taking on commitments. |
| 00:27:19 | So that's one of the reasons why they pulled out of the Kyoto Protocol. |
| 00:27:23 | The other contentious issue that always comes up in the |
| 00:27:28 | negotiations is the use of what I term more |
| 00:27:32 | flexibility mechanisms, like the emissions trading |
| 00:27:34 | schemes and the clean development mechanism, |
| 00:27:37 | to meet current commitments or goals, as I... |
| 00:27:41 | Call them by Annex I parties to the Convention. |
| 00:27:47 | And then, of course, a very, very difficult issue |
| 00:27:50 | right now for policymakers is that current negotiations |
| 00:27:53 | for a new international agreement, |
| 00:27:57 | post-Kyoto First Commitment period, post-2012, are now underway. |
| 00:28:05 | So, these sort of settings, the signs, |
| 00:28:07 | and some of these very contentious issues—what |
| 00:28:11 | are some of the key policy questions that we have to look at? |
| 00:28:15 | Well, I came up with a number of them. |
| 00:28:19 | The first one is, what are the implications |
| 00:28:21 | of the U.S. decision not to ratify Kyoto? |
| 00:28:24 | What are some of the pressing |
| 00:28:26 | issues preventing the current U.S. |
| 00:28:29 | Administration and non-annexed one parties to the convention, |
| 00:28:32 | in particular the big five, as some |
| 00:28:35 | of us in the negotiations call them: China, |
| 00:28:38 | Brazil, India, Mexico, and South Africa, |
| 00:28:41 | taking on legally binding and new. |
| 00:28:45 | Quantified emission reduction limitation commitment targets. |
| 00:28:48 | How can we resolve the current |
| 00:28:51 | stalemate between developed and developing countries |
| 00:28:54 | in relation to setting new goals post-2012? |
| 00:28:58 | What are the policy actions that can overcome |
| 00:29:02 | the barriers to all parties taking on commitment targets? |
| 00:29:11 | David has already covered the signs, so I'm |
| 00:29:14 | going to skip through a lot of the signs. |
| 00:29:18 | Other than wanting to show a few diagrams, this is what |
| 00:29:27 | we call the diagram from figure 11.4 of chapter 11 of |
| 00:29:37 | the New Zealand-Australia chapter of the IPCC Working Group 2. |
| 00:29:41 | I'm not going to go through explaining the whole thing, |
| 00:29:45 | but basically what it's saying is |
| 00:29:47 | that even if you take on various emission scenarios, |
| 00:29:52 | for example, trying to stabilise at 450 parts per million, |
| 00:29:56 | 550 parts per million, 650 parts per million, |
| 00:29:59 | You'll see the range of the vulnerability |
| 00:30:03 | of a lot of the systems in the sector |
| 00:30:06 | is going to be impacted. So take, for example, water. |
| 00:30:10 | You'll see that within, like, for example, |
| 00:30:13 | around two degrees increase, you're really going |
| 00:30:16 | to stress water resources in terms of |
| 00:30:19 | their coping mechanisms when it comes to |
| 00:30:23 | the water security in New Zealand and Australia. |
| 00:30:27 | But I've—this is what I picked out of |
| 00:30:30 | our chapter in particular, because it's related |
| 00:30:33 | to the issues that we discussed here. |
| 00:30:36 | This is the diagram of the risk to coral reefs |
| 00:30:40 | all around the world, based on 800 sites. And what is obvious for me, |
| 00:30:46 | because a lot of the talks about Pacific Islands |
| 00:30:48 | having problems with coral reefs attracting tourism, |
| 00:30:53 | for example, because of coral bleaching. But what we found in our chapter |
| 00:30:57 | is that there are many more pressing, non-climate factors, |
| 00:31:02 | such as human intervention, that cause a lot of these problems. |
| 00:31:06 | So if you take the current human influences on coral reefs |
| 00:31:11 | and then you impose any increase in sea surface temperature, |
| 00:31:16 | it will have a major impact. |
| 00:31:17 | So what you're seeing over here is, |
| 00:31:20 | like, around the Southeast Asia region and |
| 00:31:22 | part of the western South Pacific, |
| 00:31:25 | the coral reefs are really at very high risk. |
| 00:31:29 | So the red is very high risk in terms of the current situation. |
| 00:31:34 | The blue is sort of medium, and the yellow is low. |
| 00:31:37 | So again, what I'm saying here, and what we concluded, is that you |
| 00:31:41 | cannot just take only the climate per se |
| 00:31:45 | argument when you're dealing with systems and sectors. |
| 00:31:48 | You have to consider other non-climate factors |
| 00:31:51 | that drive the changes at the local community. |
| 00:31:56 | So I'll skip all the science David has said. |
| 00:32:07 | And now, going to what I term the perfect political dilemma. |
| 00:32:14 | And there are two that I found in my experience. |
| 00:32:18 | The first one is what I call the north-south paradigm shift. |
| 00:32:22 | And the second one is the commitment-equity dilemma. |
| 00:32:27 | And what is the north-south paradigm dilemma? |
| 00:32:35 | Simply defined, it is a perspective which |
| 00:32:39 | divides the world into developed and developing countries, |
| 00:32:44 | basically putting it in terms of the economic and power situation. |
| 00:32:52 | So, in terms of the UN jargon, you come |
| 00:32:55 | across a lot of what we term developing countries, |
| 00:32:58 | least developed countries, third world countries, and so forth. |
| 00:33:02 | And on the other hand, from the north, |
| 00:33:06 | you have the developed countries, more developed countries, for example. |
| 00:33:10 | And in recent times, you're seeing a |
| 00:33:13 | lot of terminology referring to an economy in transition. |
| 00:33:16 | So under this paradigm, for example, many of the world's |
| 00:33:19 | problems are reduced into conflict between the north and the south |
| 00:33:23 | about control of the use of global resources. |
| 00:33:25 | And the roots of this conflict are located |
| 00:33:29 | in the colonial history of many developing country parties. |
| 00:33:33 | So the essential demand from the South, from this perspective, |
| 00:33:37 | is the need to restructure the global economy |
| 00:33:41 | and the international political system to |
| 00:33:44 | correct the injustices of the past. |
| 00:33:47 | So this is where the position is very strong |
| 00:33:50 | in terms of the G77 and China's position. |
| 00:33:53 | And I can read you what the former Prime Minister of Malaysia said |
| 00:33:58 | back in his speech at the Earth Summit in Rio in 1992, and I quote, |
| 00:34:04 | "The poor are not asking for charity." |
| 00:34:07 | When the rich drop their own forests, build their poison power factories, |
| 00:34:12 | and scout the world for cheap resources, the poor say nothing. |
| 00:34:17 | Indeed, they pay for the development of the rich. |
| 00:34:20 | Now, the rich claim a right to |
| 00:34:22 | regulate the development of the poor countries, |
| 00:34:24 | and yet any suggestion that the rich |
| 00:34:27 | compensate the poor adequately is regarded as outrageous. |
| 00:34:31 | As colonies, we were exploited. |
| 00:34:34 | Now, as independent nations, we are to be equally exploited. |
| 00:34:39 | So Malaysia is not alone. |
| 00:34:41 | The Malaysian government's views are commonly shared and held |
| 00:34:44 | amongst the group of G77 in China, |
| 00:34:47 | and many of the small islands in the |
| 00:34:50 | Alliance of Small Island States support those views. |
| 00:34:54 | But these are sort of the contrasting views that continue to |
| 00:35:00 | form the basis of the negotiating position up to now. |
| 00:35:05 | And no wonder we're seeing the global |
| 00:35:07 | emissions of greenhouse gases still going up, |
| 00:35:10 | but the politics of the whole debate still haven't been resolved. |
| 00:35:14 | And, for example, as a way of understanding |
| 00:35:17 | the evolution of the economic and political order, |
| 00:35:21 | the North-South paradigm is useful. |
| 00:35:24 | But in my view, as a tool, however, |
| 00:35:26 | for breaking through the divide between North and South, |
| 00:35:29 | particularly in environmental issues, |
| 00:35:32 | for finding solutions to contemporary ecological problems, |
| 00:35:36 | the paradigm as formulated and articulated |
| 00:35:38 | Today could only lead to international community, |
| 00:35:42 | to unsolvable territories. |
| 00:35:44 | The second dimension of the climate change debate that I refer to, |
| 00:35:51 | And I'll use the slide here, is what I call the commitment-equity dilemma. |
| 00:35:57 | Which is basically very linked to the first one. |
| 00:35:59 | And this equity-commitment dilemma is based on |
| 00:36:04 | two diametrically opposed perceptions of climate change. |
| 00:36:10 | For example, on one hand, are the common views held |
| 00:36:13 | by the North or Annex I parties to the convention, |
| 00:36:16 | that climate change is an environmental, ecological issue. |
| 00:36:22 | It is based on the premise of a wrongful act against nature, |
| 00:36:26 | so nature is the victim. |
| 00:36:28 | In this view, humans'role is primarily that of a culprit. |
| 00:36:35 | Environmental equity, or to do justice to nature, |
| 00:36:38 | is the overriding moral purpose, what I term distributive justice. |
| 00:36:44 | The focus then, from this view, is the allocation |
| 00:36:48 | of the quantified emission limitation reduction targets and, |
| 00:36:51 | where possible, the use of the |
| 00:36:54 | flexibility mechanisms that I talked about earlier |
| 00:36:58 | to achieve these targets at the domestic level. |
| 00:37:02 | From the southern perspective, they see it very differently. |
| 00:37:07 | The climate change problem is a human welfare problem, not nature. |
| 00:37:12 | Putting people at the center of the debate. |
| 00:37:17 | And under this perception, the harm is against humans, |
| 00:37:21 | and therefore, more emphasis is put on addressing the |
| 00:37:26 | disparity between the responsibility for and |
| 00:37:29 | the sharing of climate change impacts |
| 00:37:32 | or the adaptation costs. |
| 00:37:35 | Among all concerns, thus bearing human impact burdens |
| 00:37:38 | disproportionate with casual responsibilities. |
| 00:37:42 | So, this is two very diametrically opposed views from the North and South. |
| 00:37:48 | One sees it as an ecological matter. |
| 00:37:49 | The other one sees it as a human welfare matter. |
| 00:37:52 | So we need to break through. |
| 00:37:53 | And in that context, I want to make |
| 00:37:58 | some observations about the position of the U.S. government, |
| 00:38:03 | because we can't live with the U.S. in this game. |
| 00:38:07 | It's a global issue, and we can't live without them, too. |
| 00:38:12 | So we really need to look at the U.S. position. |
| 00:38:16 | So what is the U.S. position, and why did they pull out? |
| 00:38:19 | Well, the U.S. government, regardless of whether |
| 00:38:22 | it's a Republican or Democratic administration, |
| 00:38:26 | has a longer, more consistent position |
| 00:38:28 | on climate change than most countries. |
| 00:38:31 | Since 1988, for example, their position is that they |
| 00:38:34 | would not be party to any legally binding international climate treaty |
| 00:38:38 | unless five fundamental principles are met. |
| 00:38:41 | The principles, finally defined by |
| 00:38:43 | former President Clinton in November 1997, |
| 00:38:47 | call for the United States'response to climate change to be, |
| 00:38:50 | one, guided by the science—that's where the work of the IPCC comes in—two, |
| 00:38:56 | the U.S. Approach be market-based and common sense, |
| 00:39:00 | and that's why they agreed to the |
| 00:39:02 | emissions trading scheme and the clean development mechanisms, |
| 00:39:04 | and three, should first look for a win-win positive solution that exists. |
| 00:39:09 | Four, that there must be global participation, |
| 00:39:13 | and that's why it is a global problem that |
| 00:39:17 | requires a global solution. |
| 00:39:19 | So that's why they argued that the big |
| 00:39:22 | five developing countries need to be on board right |
| 00:39:24 | from the offset when they negotiated the Kyoto Protocol. |
| 00:39:28 | And five, recognizing the uncertainty in engaging on |
| 00:39:31 | a long-term basis, the U.S. needs to have common sense, |
| 00:39:34 | economic, and scientific reviews periodically. |
| 00:39:39 | And some in the current US administration |
| 00:39:42 | argue that the Kyoto Protocol failed to meet |
| 00:39:44 | all five principles, specifically Principle 4, |
| 00:39:47 | and therefore the Kyoto Protocol should |
| 00:39:50 | be declared dead. And that's exactly what happened in March 2001. |
| 00:39:55 | But they were not alone. |
| 00:39:57 | In July 1997, the US Senate approved, by a |
| 00:40:01 | vote of 95 to 0, what we call Senate Resolution 98, |
| 00:40:05 | commonly known as the Perth-Hagel Resolution. |
| 00:40:09 | The resolution stipulates two conditions that must |
| 00:40:11 | be met before the U.S. can become a |
| 00:40:14 | signatory to any international agreement on climate change. |
| 00:40:18 | First, the agreement must include commitment |
| 00:40:21 | targets for developing countries, the big |
| 00:40:23 | five I refer to in particular. |
| 00:40:26 | And second, it cannot result in serious harm to the U.S. economy. |
| 00:40:31 | Basically, this is why they pulled out of the Kyoto. |
| 00:40:35 | So you'll see that they're using |
| 00:40:38 | the Malaysian position and the U.S. |
| 00:40:40 | position really to represent a big divide among the parties. |
| 00:40:47 | And that brings me to the issue for New Zealand and also small islands. |
| 00:40:56 | While New Zealand and small Pacific states do play important roles |
| 00:40:59 | in the international climate change debate, |
| 00:41:01 | New Zealand has an excellent record |
| 00:41:03 | of being a good international citizen and |
| 00:41:06 | is sometimes referred to in our own little |
| 00:41:08 | grouping as the Swiss of the South Pacific. |
| 00:41:11 | But for New Zealand to be an effective partner, |
| 00:41:15 | it needs to constantly review and assess the full |
| 00:41:17 | extent of the implications of international policies and measures. |
| 00:41:20 | For example, those that are listed above: carbon footprints, food mileage, |
| 00:41:25 | carbon energy taxes, and emissions trading on |
| 00:41:27 | the New Zealand economy and its people. |
| 00:41:30 | In the case of the South Pacific, |
| 00:41:33 | small islands have made their contribution to the climate change debate |
| 00:41:36 | to date through the Alliance of Small Island States, |
| 00:41:40 | and the group of G7 and China are enormous. |
| 00:41:44 | EOSIS, for example, has consistently been the |
| 00:41:48 | champion of both the two dilemmas that I |
| 00:41:52 | refer to, the North-South paradigm dilemma and the |
| 00:41:56 | commitment-equity dilemma, from a moral, |
| 00:41:58 | ethical, first-victims perspective. |
| 00:41:59 | But in my view, while the first |
| 00:42:03 | victim position is commendable, EOSIS needs to redefine |
| 00:42:06 | and rethink its strategies and position now |
| 00:42:10 | in light of the post-9/11 security-conscious world. |
| 00:42:14 | So I see that EOSIS needs to take into account the concerns of all parties. |
| 00:42:20 | Air users cannot expect the U.S., for example, to become a party to Kyoto |
| 00:42:25 | if they do not resolve to find common |
| 00:42:28 | ground on key issues of concern to the U.S., |
| 00:42:32 | like quantified emission reduction |
| 00:42:34 | limitation commitments for developing countries. |
| 00:42:39 | On the other hand, our users cannot |
| 00:42:41 | expect other developing countries like China or India to |
| 00:42:44 | become full parties in the climate effort |
| 00:42:47 | if the issue continues to be framed as |
| 00:42:49 | purely an environmental or ecological issue. |
| 00:42:54 | Which was the basis of their |
| 00:42:56 | original negotiating position in the early 1990s. |
| 00:42:58 | And this can be interpreted as a |
| 00:43:01 | threat to this country's economic growth, development, |
| 00:43:04 | and its efforts to eradicate extreme poverty, |
| 00:43:08 | which is the most pressing issue |
| 00:43:10 | of our times for these particular countries. |
| 00:43:14 | So, really, from a small island's perspective, |
| 00:43:17 | they need to look and find positions that speak both to climate change and |
| 00:43:24 | to the core human development, |
| 00:43:26 | poverty limitation, and eradication priorities. |
| 00:43:30 | So in conclusion, the science is clear, as David has outlined. |
| 00:43:35 | Greenhouse gases from human activities are affecting the global climate. |
| 00:43:39 | Biological and physical systems are already impacted. |
| 00:43:43 | Most substantial changes are likely over the coming decades. |
| 00:43:48 | There are risks of abrupt or major changes, perhaps in the future, |
| 00:43:53 | but influenced by what happens over the next few decades. |
| 00:43:59 | Significant changes are expected in New Zealand and the Pacific, |
| 00:44:02 | both positive and negative, and thus the need to adapt. |
| 00:44:05 | Adaptation is important, but without mitigation, |
| 00:44:09 | climate change is likely to exceed adaptation capabilities. |
| 00:44:12 | The good news is that countries, all of us, |
| 00:44:15 | can diminish the risks associated with climate |
| 00:44:18 | change through a portfolio of adaptation and mitigation measures. |
| 00:44:23 | From a political perspective, there is a need |
| 00:44:27 | for new political leaders to play a key role |
| 00:44:31 | in redefining climate change as a |
| 00:44:34 | perfect political dilemma to highlight the north-south |
| 00:44:38 | and equity issues, and to redress or |
| 00:44:42 | Rethink the imbalance of the present climate change |
| 00:44:46 | convention regime. |
| 00:44:47 | Lastly, there is an urgent need to |
| 00:44:50 | engage the U.S. and large developing countries in |
| 00:44:54 | the post-Kyoto first commitment period negotiations. |
| 00:44:58 | It is clear to my view that a new |
| 00:45:02 | international treaty without the U.S., China, India, Brazil, Mexico, |
| 00:45:06 | and South Africa, not only not taking |
| 00:45:10 | on new quantified emission reduction limitations post-Kyoto |
| 00:45:13 | First Commitment period, would be a meaningless treaty. |
| 00:45:19 | It is also clear that there is a need to |
| 00:45:22 | place impacts and adaptation on equal footing with mitigation. |
| 00:45:25 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Thank you, PN. |
| 00:45:38 | I had a request from the organisers to |
| 00:45:41 | ask people not to move around during presentations. |
| 00:45:44 | It sort of destabilises the speakers a wee bit. |
| 00:45:48 | And cell phones off, please. |
| 00:45:51 | Any cell phone that rings will be brought onto the stage and stamped on. |
| 00:45:57 | You know that expression, we're between a rock and a hard place? |
| 00:46:00 | Well, what the last two speeches did for me is |
| 00:46:02 | to suggest that we are between the science and the politics. |
| 00:46:07 | What effect will this have on New Zealand? |
| 00:46:09 | How should we treat other nations? |
| 00:46:11 | To answer that, we're going now to be addressed |
| 00:46:15 | by Gareth Rinaldon, who wrote this book, *Hot Topic*. |
| 00:46:18 | Gareth. Thank you, Noel Swamijī, distinguished guests. |
| 00:46:29 | I'd like to thank the Yoga and Daily Life Organization |
| 00:46:32 | and the World Peace Summit for inviting me to speak today. |
| 00:46:36 | I'd just like to say it's very unusual. |
| 00:46:38 | I've never done it before, but to come on |
| 00:46:41 | stage after two Nobel Prize winners is an amazing thing. |
| 00:46:44 | David and Penny both shared in the Nobel |
| 00:46:47 | Prize that was awarded to the IPCC last year. |
| 00:46:50 | So congratulations to them, I think, are very much in order. |
| 00:46:53 | I've called my talk, which should appear on the screen any second, |
| 00:46:59 | "Little Country, Big Issues,"and I called it that because |
| 00:47:03 | New Zealand is a small country. We're only 4 million people, |
| 00:47:06 | and the issues that we face are completely and truly global. |
| 00:47:10 | There is no doubt, as David has shown. |
| 00:47:14 | That climate change is going to shape our lives over the next century. |
| 00:47:19 | I've put this picture up there. It's a picture of the Greenland ice sheet, |
| 00:47:24 | it's melt water. |
| 00:47:25 | It's a very famous picture, |
| 00:47:27 | melt water disappearing down what's called a moulin. |
| 00:47:30 | Which is basically a big hole that goes to the bottom of the ice sheet. |
| 00:47:33 | And that water is melting in summer, northern hemisphere summer, |
| 00:47:36 | going to the bottom of the ice sheet, and it's |
| 00:47:39 | speeding up the rate at which the ice reaches the sea. |
| 00:47:42 | And that, to me, when I use this as my one-slide Al Gore presentation, |
| 00:47:48 | ladies and gentlemen, that is our world going down the gurgler. |
| 00:47:54 | I'd like to just go back to the science for a moment, |
| 00:47:56 | because there are some key scientific conclusions that are relevant |
| 00:48:01 | to the way that we look at the issue going forward. |
| 00:48:06 | The first of these is that there are 30 years of warming in the pipeline |
| 00:48:11 | as the Earth's energy budget catches up with the |
| 00:48:14 | greenhouse gas levels that are currently in the atmosphere. |
| 00:48:18 | That's because the Earth is out of balance. It has to warm up. |
| 00:48:22 | We have the amount of heat leaving the planet has |
| 00:48:24 | to be the same as the amount of heat coming in. It's, |
| 00:48:27 | we're a bit... we've built a dam, and the river |
| 00:48:30 | is still filling up behind the dam. When the water gets |
| 00:48:34 | to the top of the dam and starts falling off... |
| 00:48:37 | The top, then the world will be back in equilibrium. |
| 00:48:40 | That's going to take 30 years, as David said. |
| 00:48:44 | It means about 0.6 degrees of warming. The main |
| 00:48:47 | reason it takes 30 years is that we've |
| 00:48:50 | got the planetary oceans, which are about 70%. |
| 00:48:53 | Of the Earth's surface, and a lot of |
| 00:48:55 | that is in the Southern Hemisphere, which has some |
| 00:48:58 | very important implications for New Zealand. |
| 00:49:00 | If we could freeze total greenhouse gases |
| 00:49:03 | at today's levels, that's 385 parts per |
| 00:49:07 | million of carbon dioxide, warming will continue |
| 00:49:10 | into the 2030s. But we can't stabilize |
| 00:49:13 | at today's levels. It will take decades to |
| 00:49:17 | transform the world's economies, energy, infrastructure, |
| 00:49:21 | and agriculture to achieve |
| 00:49:25 | anything like that. And as Penny pointed out |
| 00:49:29 | in his talk, the political obstacles to achieving |
| 00:49:32 | that sort of action are huge. But there are |
| 00:49:36 | two nasty conclusions, really. The first is that we |
| 00:49:39 | can't do anything to stop climate change for 30 years. |
| 00:49:43 | Everything that happens over the next 30 |
| 00:49:45 | years is already in the pipeline. |
| 00:49:48 | And that has a very important implication for the way |
| 00:49:52 | that we approach the problem. Our political systems |
| 00:49:54 | are not designed to be able to cope |
| 00:49:57 | with problems that have a generational timescale. |
| 00:50:00 | We tend to look at them and say, "That's my |
| 00:50:04 | children's problem."We don't have that luxury. |
| 00:50:07 | The second key scientific thing that I would |
| 00:50:11 | like to draw out, now I'm not a scientist |
| 00:50:13 | and I defer to David and Penny in all things scientific. |
| 00:50:15 | But that does give me a freedom, |
| 00:50:18 | I think, to go perhaps a little bit further and be |
| 00:50:21 | a little bit less cautious than they are when |
| 00:50:23 | I talk about what's happening. And the first is that |
| 00:50:26 | the warming seems to be happening faster than expected. |
| 00:50:30 | The charts that David showed, most of |
| 00:50:32 | the lines, if you take them up to 2007, 2008, |
| 00:50:37 | seem to be ticking upwards a little bit. In 2007, |
| 00:50:41 | the Arctic sea ice minimum was a record. |
| 00:50:44 | It was 25% below the previous record, which was set |
| 00:50:49 | only two years earlier in 2005. We used to |
| 00:50:52 | think that the summer sea ice was not likely |
| 00:50:54 | to disappear before the end of the century. |
| 00:50:57 | Then we revised that to the middle of the century, |
| 00:51:00 | and I had an email exchange a |
| 00:51:03 | couple of weeks ago with a scientist who believes |
| 00:51:06 | that he's predicted it could be gone by 2013. |
| 00:51:09 | A couple of weeks ago, there was the National |
| 00:51:13 | Snow and Ice Data Center in the U.S. |
| 00:51:17 | Had a press conference about the state of |
| 00:51:21 | the Arctic sea ice, so this chart is only |
| 00:51:23 | a couple of weeks old. If you look at the |
| 00:51:26 | picture on the left, it shows you the age |
| 00:51:29 | of the ice, the average age of the ice in |
| 00:51:32 | February over the years 1985 to 2000. |
| 00:51:35 | And just concentrate on two colors. The purple |
| 00:51:38 | color is ice that is six years old or older. |
| 00:51:42 | In other words, multi-year ice. The red is |
| 00:51:46 | ice that's one year old. In other words, |
| 00:51:48 | that's the ice that had just frozen that year. |
| 00:51:51 | So that's the average up to the end of the last millennium. |
| 00:51:55 | Now look at the picture on the right. |
| 00:51:57 | That's the situation a month ago. |
| 00:52:01 | That purple area has just about disappeared. |
| 00:52:05 | I think it's down to 6% of its former level. |
| 00:52:09 | The red area, the single-year ice, |
| 00:52:12 | that's the ice that's only one year old, only frozen |
| 00:52:14 | up over the last winter, is now most of the |
| 00:52:17 | Arctic Ocean. So there's a real risk |
| 00:52:21 | that my contact, who's called Professor Wislowski |
| 00:52:26 | at the Naval Ice Research Center in California, |
| 00:52:30 | might be right about 2013. So if you want |
| 00:52:35 | to get an idea of what's happening in global warming, |
| 00:52:38 | just keep an eye on the Arctic sea |
| 00:52:41 | ice for the next coming Northern Hemisphere summer. |
| 00:52:44 | But it's not just happening up north. |
| 00:52:48 | Just in the last few days, we've had |
| 00:52:51 | news that the Wilkins Ice Shelf on the southwest coast |
| 00:52:55 | of the Antarctic Peninsula has begun to break up. |
| 00:52:58 | And it's difficult to see from this picture, |
| 00:53:00 | but those ice cliffs there are huge. |
| 00:53:04 | They're two- or three-story houses high. |
| 00:53:08 | The Wilkins Ice Shelf, the region of disintegration there, |
| 00:53:12 | I just saw described as as big as the state of Connecticut. |
| 00:53:15 | That probably means about half the North Island, something like that. |
| 00:53:19 | It's one of those things you can have a |
| 00:53:21 | measure that's relevant to any country in the world. |
| 00:53:23 | You just have to find something that's 13,000 square kilometers in size. |
| 00:53:28 | And it happened very, very quickly. |
| 00:53:32 | The Antarctic Peninsula is the fastest warming part of the world. |
| 00:53:36 | It's warming at half a degree Celsius per decade. |
| 00:53:41 | So to extrapolate from those two key scientific points, |
| 00:53:46 | the impact of a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean on the Northern Hemisphere |
| 00:53:51 | is really not very well understood, and that's not surprising. |
| 00:53:55 | If we thought it was going to happen 100 years in the future, |
| 00:53:57 | it hasn't exactly been high on anyone's list of things to look at. |
| 00:54:02 | But it's happening now, and it's happening |
| 00:54:04 | perhaps over the next five to ten years. |
| 00:54:06 | What does that mean for the Northern Hemisphere? |
| 00:54:09 | Well, it should and almost definitely will mean warmer winters. |
| 00:54:13 | As you have a great ocean up there getting warmer during summer, |
| 00:54:18 | it has to lose that heat in winter. That heat goes into the atmosphere, |
| 00:54:22 | and that will spread itself around the Northern Hemisphere. |
| 00:54:27 | And interestingly, another consequence of that is that, |
| 00:54:29 | because it's a great big ocean, |
| 00:54:31 | it will also put a lot of water vapor into the air. |
| 00:54:34 | And so you could see winters that are |
| 00:54:37 | considerably snowier than usual, even if they are warmer. |
| 00:54:41 | If we look at the last Northern Hemisphere winter, it was relatively cool. |
| 00:54:45 | It was still the 16th warmest in the |
| 00:54:48 | climate record, according to the NOAA in the USA. |
| 00:54:52 | But Finland and Sweden had their warmest winters since records began. |
| 00:54:57 | In Norway, they had their snowiest winter in many, |
| 00:55:01 | many decades, but it was also, I think, the second warmest in Norway. |
| 00:55:07 | And what this suggests to me is that rapid climate change is happening now, |
| 00:55:14 | and the consequences of that for us and our |
| 00:55:18 | societies are almost impossible to understand or to predict. |
| 00:55:22 | But we need to be very careful. |
| 00:55:24 | I'll just show you one more picture from the recent past. |
| 00:55:28 | This is the northern hemisphere temperature anomalies over |
| 00:55:31 | the northern hemisphere winter, December to February 2008. |
| 00:55:35 | And as I said, it was a relatively cool winter, |
| 00:55:38 | and we all saw shocking pictures of snow in China and so on. |
| 00:55:41 | And if you look at Central Asia there, |
| 00:55:44 | you'll find big blue dots that indicate it was very cold, |
| 00:55:47 | sort of as much as 4 degrees Celsius, 5 degrees Celsius below average. |
| 00:55:52 | But look to the north of that blue dot. |
| 00:55:54 | That area from Western Europe right the way through to |
| 00:55:58 | Siberia was 4 to 5 degrees Celsius warmer than usual. |
| 00:56:03 | And that, I think, was a direct consequence of |
| 00:56:06 | the large amount of sea ice that melted last year. |
| 00:56:10 | And interestingly, you can see in the Central Pacific |
| 00:56:12 | there the blue dots that indicate a large La Niña, |
| 00:56:15 | which is one of the things that possibly helped |
| 00:56:19 | to make it cooler than recent Northern Hemisphere winters. |
| 00:56:24 | So I'd like to move on now to talk about New |
| 00:56:27 | Zealand and what some of the impacts on New Zealand might be. |
| 00:56:30 | New Zealand is fortunate to be an island in |
| 00:56:32 | a very big and a very cool ocean. |
| 00:56:34 | The Southern Ocean is the world's largest, and as we saw when |
| 00:56:38 | we talked about the time it takes the world to catch up, |
| 00:56:41 | it's going to take a very long time to heat up the Southern Ocean. |
| 00:56:46 | So the Southern Ocean is going to be our air conditioner, if you like. |
| 00:56:51 | So this should mean that we will warm more slowly than most. |
| 00:56:54 | Certainly, we'll warm more slowly than the |
| 00:56:56 | Northern Hemisphere and the large continental interiors. |
| 00:56:59 | And hopefully it means that we'll be cushioned from the |
| 00:57:03 | worst effects of climate change, at least in the medium term. |
| 00:57:07 | The general effect would be as if |
| 00:57:10 | the country were drifting slowly towards the equator. |
| 00:57:13 | So warmth will, I'm looking at David here just to check that he's nodding, |
| 00:57:17 | that warmth will spread down from the north. |
| 00:57:23 | You could think of it as the Bay of Plenty becoming more like Northland, |
| 00:57:28 | and Canterbury more like Hawke's Bay. |
| 00:57:30 | I'm not entirely sure, being a Cantabrian, |
| 00:57:32 | whether that's a good thing or not. |
| 00:57:36 | I'd like to now put up a map that |
| 00:57:38 | NIWA produced for the government a few years ago |
| 00:57:40 | to describe the impacts of climate change on New Zealand. |
| 00:57:45 | And it illustrates one of the important points. |
| 00:57:48 | Now, the models that David referred to predict |
| 00:57:51 | that the westerly winds in the southern hemisphere |
| 00:57:54 | are going to become stronger. |
| 00:57:56 | And we can see the winds blowing towards the west coast of New Zealand. |
| 00:58:00 | If they become stronger, they will give us more rain. |
| 00:58:05 | And as I said, as a Cantabrian, I know |
| 00:58:07 | what happens when it's raining on the west coast. |
| 00:58:09 | It becomes warm and dry on the east coast. |
| 00:58:11 | And so you could characterize our future weather |
| 00:58:15 | in terms of being like today, only more so. |
| 00:58:19 | So, more rain on the west coast, drier and warmer |
| 00:58:22 | on the east coast, with general warmth heading down from the north. |
| 00:58:26 | One day you might be able to grow olives |
| 00:58:29 | in Dunedin or possibly Sauvignon Blanc in the Gore district. |
| 00:58:34 | Winters will be warmer, so fewer frosts. They'll be shorter. |
| 00:58:40 | It's not that the seasons will change length, |
| 00:58:44 | and that will have important consequences for ecology. |
| 00:58:47 | If we look at the snowfall, it might increase at high levels, |
| 00:58:51 | but the snow line might move up. |
| 00:58:53 | And that has an important consequence for alpine species. |
| 00:58:57 | If they're adapted to a cooler climate, |
| 00:58:59 | and if the cooler climate moves off the top of the mountains, |
| 00:59:01 | those species have got nowhere to go. |
| 00:59:04 | The same applies to pest distributions. |
| 00:59:07 | Pests that like warm conditions could be spreading |
| 00:59:10 | down from Northland into the Bay |
| 00:59:12 | of Plenty, down the North Island. |
| 00:59:14 | We can already see that with the spread |
| 00:59:16 | of tropical grasses, such as Kikuyu, coming down |
| 00:59:18 | from Northland and spreading down through the North Island. |
| 00:59:22 | So New Zealand's direct challenges from |
| 00:59:25 | the actual fact of climate change are |
| 00:59:27 | the increasing risk of drought. |
| 00:59:31 | The frequencies of droughts, depending on |
| 00:59:33 | which region of New Zealand you consider, |
| 00:59:35 | are going to increase markedly. |
| 00:59:37 | And in my part of Canterbury, |
| 00:59:40 | what could be a one-in-20-year drought at the moment |
| 00:59:43 | might be a one-in-five-year event towards the end of the century. |
| 00:59:47 | And that has a very significant implication |
| 00:59:49 | for the way that farmers plan their activities. |
| 00:59:53 | Heavier rainfall, as a consequence of more water vapor in the atmosphere, |
| 00:59:59 | could lead to this strange paradox where you have |
| 01:00:02 | heavy rainfall at the same time as a drought. |
| 01:00:04 | And in fact, I could see a sort |
| 01:00:06 | of eerie pre-echo of that in February this year, |
| 01:00:08 | because in my part of the world we had a |
| 01:00:11 | very hot December and January and early part of February, |
| 01:00:13 | and then we had five inches of rain in about |
| 01:00:16 | Four hours, and then it went back to being dry again. |
| 01:00:19 | If you wanted to ask me what climate change would bring |
| 01:00:22 | to the Waipara Valley, I'd say, just look at this summer. |
| 01:00:27 | So you've then also got to look at what the |
| 01:00:30 | impact that rising sea levels could have on low-lying shores, |
| 01:00:34 | and the city of Wellington is particularly exposed to that. |
| 01:00:37 | But there are several parts of New Zealand |
| 01:00:39 | where cities are built close to the sea, |
| 01:00:40 | and the cost of protecting them from |
| 01:00:43 | sea level rise could be very significant. |
| 01:00:46 | So I'd now like to look at what our vulnerabilities are. |
| 01:00:49 | So we're vulnerable to what I've |
| 01:00:50 | called the direct impacts of climate change |
| 01:00:52 | from the increased drought and flooding. |
| 01:00:54 | We're also vulnerable to the direct impacts of climate change overseas. |
| 01:00:58 | That's the effect on our trading partners. |
| 01:01:00 | And that's why I wanted to draw your attention to the fact that |
| 01:01:03 | I think climate change is happening rapidly in the Northern Hemisphere. |
| 01:01:06 | That's where our biggest markets are. |
| 01:01:08 | And if they have an economic problem |
| 01:01:11 | because of the impacts of climate change, |
| 01:01:13 | we will feel it in our pockets here. |
| 01:01:16 | There's also the question that if New Zealand |
| 01:01:19 | is seen to be handling climate change really well |
| 01:01:22 | and is a beautiful place to be, we could get climate refugees arriving. |
| 01:01:26 | There are some sobering figures with that. |
| 01:01:28 | I think at least half a million New Zealanders live overseas |
| 01:01:30 | and have an absolute right to come back at any time. |
| 01:01:33 | And there are 17 million Australians who have a right to move here. |
| 01:01:37 | At the moment, we seem to be |
| 01:01:39 | terribly worried about New Zealanders going to Australia. |
| 01:01:42 | I know at least one Australian who's moved |
| 01:01:44 | to New Zealand because of climate change already. |
| 01:01:47 | So we're vulnerable also to what others do to address climate change, |
| 01:01:52 | which is where issues like food miles and so on come into it. |
| 01:01:56 | If other countries take climate change more seriously than us, |
| 01:01:59 | then we have to play the game by their rules. So what can we do? |
| 01:02:03 | We can adapt, and we can mitigate. |
| 01:02:08 | Adaptation is adapting to the changes that are inevitable. |
| 01:02:11 | We know there are 30 years of change in the pipeline. |
| 01:02:14 | Mitigation, which means reducing emissions, is to |
| 01:02:17 | try to prevent that future change from being disastrous. |
| 01:02:21 | Mitigation is where all the high-profile action is. |
| 01:02:24 | That's the wind farms, the emissions trading |
| 01:02:28 | schemes that Rod will be talking about shortly. |
| 01:02:31 | That's where all the high-profile stuff is going on, |
| 01:02:34 | but adaptation is critically important, not just |
| 01:02:37 | in New Zealand but around the world, |
| 01:02:40 | and as Penny suggested, also particularly important |
| 01:02:42 | in the less developed parts of the world. |
| 01:02:46 | So, what are the global goals? |
| 01:02:48 | The global goal is to stabilize atmospheric greenhouse gases |
| 01:02:51 | at a level that will prevent the worst impacts of climate change. |
| 01:02:56 | That's a goal, but we still |
| 01:02:57 | have countries that don't necessarily accept that. |
| 01:02:59 | And as Penny suggested, we're going to have to look very |
| 01:03:02 | closely at how we can bring everybody on board with that. |
| 01:03:06 | But it depends on defining what the level |
| 01:03:10 | of greenhouse gases that will prevent that is. |
| 01:03:15 | It's difficult to know. |
| 01:03:17 | It's an urgent debate that needs to be had, |
| 01:03:20 | both in the scientific community and in the political community. |
| 01:03:22 | It is where science meets politics, |
| 01:03:24 | and it is where controversy is going to develop |
| 01:03:26 | as we move through the negotiations |
| 01:03:29 | for the treaties that will follow Kyoto. |
| 01:03:33 | And it's a basic, simple sum. |
| 01:03:36 | The easy targets, that is, targets that allow for |
| 01:03:39 | a lot of carbon emissions over the next decades, |
| 01:03:42 | are going to be cheaper. They're going to be easier to do. |
| 01:03:45 | But they could bring much bigger risks in terms |
| 01:03:49 | of damage to the climate system in the future. |
| 01:03:52 | The tough targets, the ones that are safest in terms of protecting |
| 01:03:57 | what we already have, are harder to achieve and will be more expensive. |
| 01:04:02 | And we have a situation where today, if we think the |
| 01:04:07 | world is warming faster than perhaps we thought in the past, |
| 01:04:11 | one expert now, who's actually a guy called James Hansen, |
| 01:04:13 | who's one of the world's most senior climate scientists, |
| 01:04:16 | has called for a target to reduce greenhouse |
| 01:04:20 | Gases to 350 parts per million of the atmosphere, |
| 01:04:25 | and we're already at 385. |
| 01:04:27 | So the implication of what Hansen is suggesting there |
| 01:04:30 | is that we have to go beyond cutting our emissions |
| 01:04:33 | to the point where they're matched by |
| 01:04:35 | what can be absorbed by the climate system, |
| 01:04:38 | but we've actually got to take carbon dioxide out of the air. |
| 01:04:41 | And that is not being discussed politically at the moment, |
| 01:04:45 | but the science is beginning to suggest we need to think about it. |
| 01:04:49 | So it's an urgent challenge that we face in that respect. |
| 01:04:52 | So how do we go about doing this? |
| 01:04:54 | We stop burning coal and other fossil fuels. |
| 01:04:57 | We stop chopping down rainforests, |
| 01:04:59 | which is probably the cheapest way to |
| 01:05:02 | get an immediate 20% cut in emissions. |
| 01:05:05 | We start replanting forests. |
| 01:05:07 | I personally will be planting several trees this winter. |
| 01:05:10 | Whether it will do for my carbon footprint or not, I don't know. |
| 01:05:12 | We're going to develop and implement |
| 01:05:15 | low-carbon technologies for energy and transport, |
| 01:05:17 | and we have to develop and implement carbon sequestration that |
| 01:05:21 | will allow us to burn fossil fuels |
| 01:05:24 | without adding carbon to the environment. But we also have to be able, |
| 01:05:27 | perhaps as Hanson has suggested, to take some. |
| 01:05:29 | Of that carbon out of the atmosphere, |
| 01:05:31 | the next question, of course, is, can we afford it? |
| 01:05:34 | This is the big question that is asked, |
| 01:05:36 | particularly by those who are not keen on action, |
| 01:05:38 | and to which my reply is always, can we afford not to do it? |
| 01:05:43 | And I think the answer, if you can |
| 01:05:45 | read the second and third reports of the IPCC, |
| 01:05:49 | is that the impacts are enormous and the costs are relatively low. |
| 01:05:55 | The cost of the damages is extremely high. |
| 01:05:59 | That doesn't mean that there won't be winners and losers. |
| 01:06:00 | There's obviously going to be some sectors where, |
| 01:06:04 | if you move away from burning coal to having wind farms, |
| 01:06:07 | then clearly the coal producers are going to suffer. |
| 01:06:09 | And so it's not surprising, perhaps, that the likely |
| 01:06:12 | losers are the ones who are lobbying against action. |
| 01:06:17 | So, what are the local goals in New Zealand? |
| 01:06:19 | An important point to note is that there's nothing |
| 01:06:21 | we can do that will mitigate our emissions to |
| 01:06:24 | have any impact on our own climate or on the global climate. |
| 01:06:29 | Our emissions are such a small part of the global emissions picture |
| 01:06:33 | that even a 90% reduction will have no real impact. |
| 01:06:38 | I sanitized the slide, but what I wanted to |
| 01:06:40 | say was, 10% of bugger all is still bugger all. |
| 01:06:44 | However, we have to be good global citizens. |
| 01:06:47 | We might be only 4 million people, but the world |
| 01:06:50 | is made up of many groups of 4 million people, |
| 01:06:52 | and we all need to act. |
| 01:06:55 | So there's been some question in the media and in policy discussion |
| 01:06:59 | whether New Zealand should be leading or following, |
| 01:07:02 | and I would like to make a couple of points in respect of that. |
| 01:07:05 | The world does not owe New Zealand a living. |
| 01:07:08 | We're a small country. We're an easy target. |
| 01:07:11 | Nobody is going to lose out if they stop buying New Zealand apples. |
| 01:07:16 | New Zealand Incorporated, therefore, has to be very proactive. |
| 01:07:19 | It has to be seen to be, at the very least, |
| 01:07:22 | up with the actions that our major trading partners are taking. |
| 01:07:25 | So, following, reacting to what they do, |
| 01:07:28 | to my mind, is a big strategic mistake. |
| 01:07:32 | We should be up there working with them. |
| 01:07:34 | And I have to say, it looks |
| 01:07:36 | as though current policy suggests we're doing that. |
| 01:07:38 | In the longer term, carbon neutrality is certainly |
| 01:07:41 | a good and, in my view, achievable goal, |
| 01:07:44 | but we have to be doing more than just saying it. |
| 01:07:47 | We have to be doing it, and that's a lot harder. |
| 01:07:50 | And our brand has to be clean, green, and low carbon. |
| 01:07:54 | So there are some very big challenges for New Zealand ahead. |
| 01:07:56 | I'm aware I'm running over time, but I hope that's okay. |
| 01:07:59 | I'll whiz through the next lot. We have some very big challenges. |
| 01:08:03 | The first is to our agricultural sector, |
| 01:08:06 | because fully half of our emissions come from agriculture |
| 01:08:09 | in the form of methane and |
| 01:08:11 | nitrous oxide, particularly from pastoral farming. |
| 01:08:15 | It's a scientific opportunity as well as a challenge, |
| 01:08:17 | is the way that I would like to put it. |
| 01:08:20 | There are very few countries in the world |
| 01:08:22 | that have the same emissions profile as us, |
| 01:08:24 | and if our scientists can work on those emissions |
| 01:08:28 | and come up with approaches that can reduce them, |
| 01:08:31 | we will have something that is saleable around the rest of the world. |
| 01:08:35 | And I think we're going to be looking at |
| 01:08:37 | some of that over the course of the day. |
| 01:08:39 | I think we also probably need to think about land use changes, |
| 01:08:43 | moving to crops that are intrinsically low carbon and high value. |
| 01:08:48 | I'm a truffle grower, and I hope you'll forgive me |
| 01:08:50 | if I say that I think truffles are carbon negative. |
| 01:08:54 | We also need to think very hard about developing forestry as a carbon sink |
| 01:08:59 | and making sure that we have enough also to use as a biofuel source. |
| 01:09:03 | A very interesting report in the last week suggested New Zealand |
| 01:09:06 | could get all of its biofuel requirements from forests, |
| 01:09:10 | which is another opportunity in a global sense. |
| 01:09:14 | The second lot of challenges: tourism is huge for us. |
| 01:09:18 | We have to adapt the tourist industry to meet the problems of distance. |
| 01:09:22 | Long-haul flying, there's an environmentalist |
| 01:09:24 | in Britain called George Monbiot. |
| 01:09:26 | George has already said that he doesn't want to fly. |
| 01:09:29 | In fact, he appeared in a talk at the Writers'Week in Auckland by computer |
| 01:09:35 | because he didn't want to fly to New Zealand. |
| 01:09:38 | Long-haul flying, if it becomes unfashionable, |
| 01:09:40 | is a very big hole in New Zealand's pocket, |
| 01:09:42 | and it's been very encouraging to see the steps that |
| 01:09:44 | Air New Zealand has taken just in the last week |
| 01:09:46 | to be seen as a low-carbon airline, so far as it's possible. |
| 01:09:51 | We need to develop a low-carbon energy infrastructure, |
| 01:09:54 | and if that means windmills on a few skylines, like my own, |
| 01:09:58 | then I'm afraid we probably have to learn to live with it. |
| 01:10:01 | We need a low-carbon transport infrastructure, |
| 01:10:06 | which might mean some challenges for all of |
| 01:10:08 | us who enjoy getting cheap cars from Japan. |
| 01:10:12 | And all of these actions will bring |
| 01:10:14 | changes to our economy and our lifestyles. |
| 01:10:17 | I'm going to whiz through the next few |
| 01:10:19 | slides because we are running out of time. |
| 01:10:23 | Adapting to change is something we all have to do. |
| 01:10:26 | The smaller the adaptation required, the easier it is. |
| 01:10:30 | So that implies if we can mitigate now, we have to do less in the future. |
| 01:10:35 | It will be cheaper, it will be easier, |
| 01:10:37 | and as I said, if we have a risk of drought, |
| 01:10:40 | then as a farmer, I can do something to mitigate that. |
| 01:10:43 | By looking at the way that I store water on the farm, |
| 01:10:45 | I look at my farming systems. |
| 01:10:46 | I move to drippers instead of sprays or whatever, |
| 01:10:49 | and it's about developing resilience, |
| 01:10:52 | which is about being able to cope with change as it happens. |
| 01:10:55 | To be able to resist shocks and to recover from damage. |
| 01:10:59 | You know, being prepared for an earthquake is about being resilient, |
| 01:11:02 | being able to cope with the damage as it happens. |
| 01:11:04 | That also applies at a national and international level. |
| 01:11:08 | As climate impacts stress international relationships, |
| 01:11:12 | it will create problems of climate or environmental refugees. |
| 01:11:16 | And in New Zealand's own terms, it means being |
| 01:11:18 | able to fend for ourselves when the going gets tough. |
| 01:11:22 | Now, I describe myself as a climate pessimist but a technological optimist, |
| 01:11:25 | so I want to quickly whiz through some of the |
| 01:11:28 | reasons why I remain optimistic about our ability to do something. |
| 01:11:32 | Technologies to reduce carbon emissions already exist, |
| 01:11:35 | and in many cases they're already cheap enough to use. |
| 01:11:39 | Wind power is going to be built on the Teviotdale Hills opposite my farm. |
| 01:11:43 | Wave and tidal, geothermal and solar renewables are all available and |
| 01:11:46 | being built, not only in New Zealand but around the world. |
| 01:11:50 | Interestingly, new solar photovoltaic technologies, |
| 01:11:53 | those are the solar cells that you can put |
| 01:11:55 | on a roof or in your garden or whatever |
| 01:11:57 | to deliver essentially free power, |
| 01:12:01 | are coming along incredibly quickly in labs around the world. |
| 01:12:04 | And if they can be brought out into the general economy, |
| 01:12:08 | they will have a dramatically positive impact. |
| 01:12:11 | Hybrid vehicles, I'm very impressed to see the |
| 01:12:14 | green cabs, which are a sponsor of the conference. |
| 01:12:17 | I want a price. Electric vehicles are beginning to arrive. |
| 01:12:23 | This thing is the Tesla Roadster. |
| 01:12:27 | It's actually 98,000 US dollars, as I discovered last night. |
| 01:12:31 | And the first one rolled off the production lines this last week. |
| 01:12:34 | And it's very fast, very sexy, entirely electric. |
| 01:12:39 | And, well, basically, I want one. |
| 01:12:42 | This is, it's called, it's a car built in Germany. It's the Loramo GT. |
| 01:12:47 | It's only on the page at the moment. |
| 01:12:49 | But it will do 100 kilometers on three liters of diesel. |
| 01:12:53 | It has a three-cylinder turbocharged diesel. |
| 01:12:57 | It does that by being very lightweight and having very low air resistance. |
| 01:13:01 | And it's been entered in the, just announced |
| 01:13:03 | in the last week, the Automotive X Prize, |
| 01:13:06 | which is a $12.5 million New Zealand dollar prize for |
| 01:13:10 | the first car to achieve about 100 miles per gallon, |
| 01:13:13 | which is about 2.35 liters per 100 kilometers. Just as a comparison, |
| 01:13:19 | the price I was in last night was averaging about 5.2 liters |
| 01:13:23 | per 100 kilometers, so it's 50% better than the best hybrids at the moment. |
| 01:13:27 | So how do we get there? Well, we have to empower change. |
| 01:13:30 | The real risk, in my view, is that urgent action on the global scale... |
| 01:13:34 | Won't start until there's a major climate disaster. By that time, |
| 01:13:39 | because of the 30-year time lag, it will be too late. |
| 01:13:41 | So we have to empower our leaders to act now and to act prudently |
| 01:13:46 | to avoid the prospect of major climate damage in the future. |
| 01:13:50 | Action on climate change has to be at |
| 01:13:53 | the center of our national and international action. |
| 01:13:55 | It should not be an afterthought to government policies, |
| 01:13:59 | nor is it a bolt-on optional accessory. |
| 01:14:02 | And we have to learn to live within our means, |
| 01:14:04 | which is ultimately what sustainability is all about. |
| 01:14:07 | Our challenge is to maximize the number of people |
| 01:14:11 | that can live fulfilling lives on a healthy Earth. |
| 01:14:14 | And if we can't work out a way to do it, |
| 01:14:16 | the planet will do it for us, and it won't |
| 01:14:19 | care how many of us are left or how fulfilling |
| 01:14:22 | our lives are. New Zealand's small population and |
| 01:14:25 | large land area mean we are well equipped |
| 01:14:28 | to be carbon neutral and truly sustainable. |
| 01:14:32 | So the bottom line, and I've overrun by 7 |
| 01:14:36 | minutes and 24 seconds so far, is it bad? |
| 01:14:39 | I think the answer to that is undoubtedly yes. |
| 01:14:44 | How bad? Well, as I hope I've shown, it's worse than we thought. |
| 01:14:50 | Can we cope? Yes, with a bit of luck, plenty of work, and lots of goodwill. |
| 01:14:57 | And when do we start? Well, now, because tomorrow might be too late. |
| 01:15:01 | Thank you very much. |
| 01:15:16 | Thank you, Gareth. |
| 01:15:16 | Well, so far this morning, we've heard |
| 01:15:19 | the science, the politics, and the lifestyle. |
| 01:15:21 | I think the scariest thing in that |
| 01:15:23 | one was the thought of 17 million Australians. |
| 01:15:26 | Terrifying. Now we're going to hear the economics. |
| 01:15:30 | Rod Oram, as an economics commentator and a journalist, |
| 01:15:33 | is going to address us on the business response to climate change and |
| 01:15:37 | the business of carbon trading, |
| 01:15:39 | under the title "Emission Critical."Rod Oram. |
| 01:16:05 | Swamiji, ladies and gentlemen, good morning, or good afternoon rather. |
| 01:16:09 | Thank you very much for organizing this peace summit, |
| 01:16:13 | and it's a great pleasure to be here. |
| 01:16:18 | I'm just getting myself going here, and I'll be with you in just a second. |
| 01:16:25 | That's great. Thanks very much. |
| 01:17:10 | The previous presentations have dealt very well |
| 01:17:14 | with the science and the political issues, |
| 01:17:19 | and in Gareth's presentation, that was brought further together |
| 01:17:24 | and started to focus in particular on |
| 01:17:28 | technology and, indeed, changing behavior as well. |
| 01:17:33 | And I was very keen to bring my particular perspective to this, |
| 01:17:37 | although I take a great deal of interest in all of those issues. |
| 01:17:41 | It's the economic and business response to |
| 01:17:44 | climate change, which I find particularly fascinating. |
| 01:17:47 | One aspect of that is emissions trading, and this being |
| 01:17:50 | a Saturday morning, I call it a whiff of hope |
| 01:17:54 | that emissions trading might do something for us. |
| 01:17:57 | I want to tackle this in a number of ways. |
| 01:18:00 | First of all, it is just to |
| 01:18:02 | set the scene about the world and emissions trading. |
| 01:18:05 | Now, I could have done a presentation that sort |
| 01:18:08 | of analyzed trends in emissions trading around the world, |
| 01:18:11 | which is an important thing to do, particularly issues as |
| 01:18:14 | to how we might bring developing countries into such mechanisms. |
| 01:18:18 | But I thought it actually might be more helpful if I focused |
| 01:18:22 | particularly on how emissions trading, we hope, will work in New Zealand, |
| 01:18:26 | because it's important for us all to be |
| 01:18:28 | well up to play with what's going on. |
| 01:18:30 | But many of the issues about how we |
| 01:18:32 | design and run such an emissions trading scheme |
| 01:18:35 | are common to elsewhere in the world. |
| 01:18:38 | So in discussing the New Zealand system, |
| 01:18:41 | it turns out to be quite a useful |
| 01:18:43 | way of looking at those issues more globally. |
| 01:18:46 | And so I'll step through the system and some of the issues, |
| 01:18:49 | and then the hope that arises from that. |
| 01:18:53 | The starting points are obviously that the climate |
| 01:18:56 | is changing, and humans have a great role |
| 01:18:58 | in that, particularly through the carbon |
| 01:19:01 | dioxide and methane that we're releasing. |
| 01:19:03 | And we quite clearly need to drastically reduce our carbon emissions. |
| 01:19:08 | Now, when you start putting a price on something, behavior changes. |
| 01:19:13 | It makes us think about that thing and how we might manage it. |
| 01:19:18 | But crucially, from an economic and business point of view, |
| 01:19:21 | when you start measuring and managing something like carbon, |
| 01:19:26 | it starts to make you look for new and better technologies |
| 01:19:29 | and make them more economical along the way. |
| 01:19:33 | Now, if you want to put a price |
| 01:19:35 | on carbon, because essentially at the moment we don't, |
| 01:19:38 | if you want to spew carbon dioxide into |
| 01:19:40 | the air, it's a completely free thing to do. |
| 01:19:43 | If you want to put a price on it, there are essentially two ways to do it. |
| 01:19:47 | You can put a tax on it, and that's very simple. |
| 01:19:50 | You could sort of put a 10-cent-a-litre tax on petrol, for example. |
| 01:19:54 | That's simple, but it's very blunt, |
| 01:19:56 | because you then have to start trying to |
| 01:20:00 | decide how you might set that tax rate |
| 01:20:04 | and how you might vary it for different circumstances. |
| 01:20:07 | It also presents another problem: it's the government that taxes |
| 01:20:11 | and therefore collects all that revenue, |
| 01:20:13 | so you then have an additional problem, |
| 01:20:16 | as the government has to redistribute that money somehow, |
| 01:20:18 | which is always rather difficult. |
| 01:20:20 | And governments tend to lose some money along the way in the process. |
| 01:20:25 | So if you instead find a way to trade emissions, |
| 01:20:31 | hopefully you put a cap on people's activity |
| 01:20:33 | and then allow them to trade to meet those targets. |
| 01:20:39 | That's very complicated, but if you design it right and run it well, |
| 01:20:44 | it's far more effective. And so what we're seeing around |
| 01:20:47 | the world is that emissions trading, rather than taxation, |
| 01:20:50 | is very rapidly becoming the preferred option. |
| 01:20:55 | Lots of problems arise, but this is what we're trying to do. |
| 01:20:59 | What this chart tells us across the bottom is those numbers 0 to 30. |
| 01:21:03 | These are very large quantities of carbon dioxide or its equivalents we |
| 01:21:07 | want to take out of the atmosphere or take out of our emissions. |
| 01:21:13 | There's a zero line running across the middle there. |
| 01:21:15 | If we don't put a cost on carbon, |
| 01:21:17 | if it's zero, there's a whole bunch of things. |
| 01:21:20 | Those are the yellow and slightly browner things that we can do, |
| 01:21:24 | like insulate our homes or improve the efficiency of vehicles |
| 01:21:28 | or change our lighting, which are free gifts. |
| 01:21:32 | You very rapidly get a payback on that, |
| 01:21:34 | even if you don't put a price on carbon. |
| 01:21:37 | So if your house isn't properly insulated now, |
| 01:21:39 | you're leaving $100 bills lying in the street, so to speak. |
| 01:21:44 | Above that zero line, there's a whole bunch of things |
| 01:21:47 | that start to become economic, as if you start to put a price on carbon. |
| 01:21:53 | Now, the dotted line across the top is a price of carbon of 40 euros a ton, |
| 01:21:59 | which is a pretty steep price. |
| 01:22:00 | That's the best part of 80 New Zealand dollars. |
| 01:22:03 | But we'll eventually get there in terms of the world price of carbon. |
| 01:22:09 | But all the green things in there are technologies that exist now |
| 01:22:13 | or will do in the near future, which would be economically |
| 01:22:17 | viable at a carbon price of $80 New Zealand dollars a ton. |
| 01:22:22 | And you can see there's a whole bunch of stuff in there that we can do. |
| 01:22:26 | And if we put together the brown and green, |
| 01:22:29 | we've already reduced our carbon emissions around the world |
| 01:22:32 | by about 25 gigatons a year, which is a very large chunk. |
| 01:22:38 | The blue bit out the back is technology that could come later, |
| 01:22:43 | but it is still very high-priced and will eventually get there. |
| 01:22:48 | So the whole point about a pricing system |
| 01:22:52 | is that you start to measure and value things. |
| 01:22:56 | I've been a business journalist for a |
| 01:22:58 | long time, and obviously, all that time, |
| 01:23:01 | all those decades, business has largely been |
| 01:23:03 | about measuring financial flows through the business. |
| 01:23:06 | But when you start measuring environmental flows through the business, |
| 01:23:09 | particularly the flow of carbon through the business, |
| 01:23:12 | a whole different management of the business comes to light. |
| 01:23:17 | And so that's why, for example, people are measuring carbon footprints. |
| 01:23:21 | And this is one example from the UK, Walker's Crisps. |
| 01:23:25 | A humble bag of crisps, 75 grams of crisps. |
| 01:23:28 | Down on the bottom, on the left, |
| 01:23:31 | you've got all the normal nutritional data. |
| 01:23:33 | But on the right is the carbon footprint. |
| 01:23:37 | That 75-gram bag of crisps generated 106 grams of carbon in |
| 01:23:42 | the growing of the potatoes, the processing of them, |
| 01:23:45 | the packaging, and the shipping to the consumer. |
| 01:23:48 | Walker's Crisps have, it's a wonderful story, |
| 01:23:50 | I won't dwell on the detail now, |
| 01:23:53 | but by measuring that carbon flow |
| 01:23:55 | through the humble business of making crisps, |
| 01:23:58 | it has actually made a huge impact for the better on its business. |
| 01:24:03 | I've been a business journalist a very long time, as I said, |
| 01:24:06 | and I've covered all the great stories in the world, the great trends. |
| 01:24:10 | I have never seen anything, though, |
| 01:24:13 | like this response to issues of sustainability in general, |
| 01:24:16 | but climate change in particular. |
| 01:24:18 | And in terms of some very important new business disciplines emerging, |
| 01:24:24 | one interesting group of articles on these new management trends |
| 01:24:30 | was in the Harvard Business Review last October. |
| 01:24:33 | And for a mere six US dollars, you can download it from their website. |
| 01:24:37 | Michael Porter, the gentleman on the left, |
| 01:24:38 | one of the great business academics, |
| 01:24:40 | wrote in there, I won't read all the words, |
| 01:24:43 | but basically he was saying that once every |
| 01:24:45 | 20 or 30 years, once in a generation, |
| 01:24:48 | A whole big new thing comes |
| 01:24:50 | down the road: information technology, globalization. |
| 01:24:53 | And how business responds to that is really important. |
| 01:24:55 | And he's saying that what's happening with climate change now |
| 01:24:58 | has gone far beyond being a corporate social responsibility issue. |
| 01:25:01 | Issue. This is about how you actually run |
| 01:25:04 | your business better, and therefore you have to approach |
| 01:25:07 | this in a hard-headed manner and see it as |
| 01:25:11 | a strategic opportunity as much as a threat. And so |
| 01:25:15 | this is the very demanding, transformative management |
| 01:25:18 | discipline that's underway. Well, what does that |
| 01:25:20 | mean to us in New Zealand? Of all the |
| 01:25:23 | ways you can measure greenhouse gas emissions from a country, |
| 01:25:26 | it's very unfair and unwise to measure it just |
| 01:25:28 | in terms of volume, especially if you're a small country, |
| 01:25:31 | or indeed per capita. |
| 01:25:33 | Because, obviously, developing countries have a |
| 01:25:36 | much lower per capita intensity of emissions. |
| 01:25:39 | By far the fairest way is to |
| 01:25:41 | measure how much greenhouse gases you emit for every thousand dollars |
| 01:25:46 | of economic activity you generate. On that score, |
| 01:25:49 | we are the second largest |
| 01:25:52 | emitters in the world, after Australia. Now, I often speak in Australian, |
| 01:25:57 | I'd love to point that out to them. |
| 01:26:01 | The difference between us is crucial. In Australia's case, |
| 01:26:03 | half their emissions are from burning coal to |
| 01:26:07 | generate electricity, and half of ours are from |
| 01:26:11 | our agricultural practices. The science of solving our |
| 01:26:14 | half of the problem is probably going to arrive |
| 01:26:18 | sooner than the science of solving |
| 01:26:20 | carbon capture and sequestration for electricity generation. |
| 01:26:23 | So I'd rather have our problem than the Australians do. |
| 01:26:27 | I won't dwell on this other than to say it's crunch time for us. |
| 01:26:31 | We are probably, not probably, we are, of all the developed countries, |
| 01:26:35 | the most dependent on our natural environment for earning a living. |
| 01:26:39 | We know the weather's changing, we know we've run out of cheap power, |
| 01:26:41 | we know we have an emissions problem, |
| 01:26:43 | and we know we're getting some trade problems. |
| 01:26:46 | So, how are we going to respond? |
| 01:26:50 | The government tried a tax; it never got |
| 01:26:51 | off the ground for all sorts of reasons, |
| 01:26:53 | with a lot of resistance from business. |
| 01:26:55 | But so, mark two of its framework released last year was emissions trading, |
| 01:27:00 | and the basic architecture is that it involves all greenhouse gases |
| 01:27:04 | across all sectors of the economy, |
| 01:27:07 | and we phase those sectors in from this year out to 2013, |
| 01:27:11 | and we try to expose all our |
| 01:27:14 | businesses to the international cost of carbon. |
| 01:27:17 | And we do that by initially giving all those businesses an allocation, |
| 01:27:22 | a free allocation of credits, up to 90% of their 2005 emission levels. |
| 01:27:28 | So they can emit freely up to that 90% of 2005 emissions. |
| 01:27:34 | But those credits gradually phase out by 2025. |
| 01:27:40 | And over that period, the companies are going to have to work out |
| 01:27:43 | how to reduce their emissions, |
| 01:27:46 | new technology, better management and the rest, |
| 01:27:48 | or find a way to pay for |
| 01:27:50 | those emissions based on the international carbon price. |
| 01:27:53 | And there'll be all sorts of ifs, buts, |
| 01:27:56 | and ands to help people exposed to competition they can't meet |
| 01:27:59 | and deal with, or other technology issues. |
| 01:28:03 | Also, a really important part of this system |
| 01:28:05 | is to keep it as simple as possible, |
| 01:28:07 | so you or I don't get directly involved. |
| 01:28:10 | So, for example, the points of obligation, |
| 01:28:13 | those companies that have to be in the system, |
| 01:28:15 | will probably only be a couple of hundred. |
| 01:28:18 | So it will be the handful of |
| 01:28:20 | petrol companies, for example, that will be involved in |
| 01:28:22 | the system and pay the carbon price, |
| 01:28:25 | and then pass it on to us through petrol. |
| 01:28:28 | That's what the timetable looks like. |
| 01:28:31 | Once the legislation is hopefully passed later |
| 01:28:34 | this year, forestry will be first in. |
| 01:28:38 | And then, next year, liquid fuels—petrol, diesel—mostly for transport. |
| 01:28:41 | In 2010, its electricity generation |
| 01:28:45 | and energy were used in industrial processes. |
| 01:28:50 | A bit of a breather for the next two years. |
| 01:28:51 | And then, finally, in 2013, agriculture comes in. |
| 01:28:55 | And I'll deal with each of these sections very briefly. |
| 01:28:58 | What I want to say is that this |
| 01:29:00 | is the very optimistic view of the government, |
| 01:29:01 | that somehow by 2040 we'll get to |
| 01:29:05 | carbon neutrality in respect to transport and energy. |
| 01:29:10 | And I won't dwell on the detail here, other than |
| 01:29:12 | to say my gut instinct is that we won't get there. |
| 01:29:16 | Now, that's not to say the journey we've started is not worth starting. |
| 01:29:21 | I think it's really important to get an emissions |
| 01:29:24 | system up and running and learn how to use it, |
| 01:29:26 | and then we can tighten it up. |
| 01:29:29 | And so I believe the architecture is right, |
| 01:29:31 | and I believe we're right to do this. |
| 01:29:34 | And once we get better at working these new disciplines, |
| 01:29:37 | that's when we can start tightening it up. |
| 01:29:40 | And hopefully, get some bigger outcomes. |
| 01:29:43 | Let me just work through a whole bunch of issues, though. |
| 01:29:47 | There's a very big to-do list. First of all, all this is only a framework. |
| 01:29:52 | It's draft legislation which has been tabled. |
| 01:29:55 | The relevant select committee starts hearings very soon. |
| 01:29:59 | Hopefully, there will be some form of political consensus, |
| 01:30:01 | and we'll get some legislation later on this year. |
| 01:30:04 | But then there's a lot of work to do to build social consensus around this, |
| 01:30:08 | not just get business a bit happier about it, and then finding ways to |
| 01:30:15 | move to bring people into the voluntary markets. |
| 01:30:18 | What I'm talking about here is the mandatory markets; |
| 01:30:22 | this is governments requiring businesses to do this. |
| 01:30:25 | But parallel to this, we also need voluntary markets, |
| 01:30:28 | so if you or I choose to be carbon neutral |
| 01:30:33 | in our own activities and buy credits, |
| 01:30:35 | we can find voluntary markets to trade in as well. |
| 01:30:39 | So it's really important to aggregate all that |
| 01:30:42 | sort of effort at the grassroots level. |
| 01:30:45 | And, of course, we need to contribute to |
| 01:30:47 | international solutions in our suggested way in a moment, |
| 01:30:50 | and therefore help to achieve a truly global response. |
| 01:30:54 | I'll just deal with each of the sectors now, |
| 01:30:57 | but only in a very perfunctory way, |
| 01:30:59 | because the issues take a long time to step through. |
| 01:31:03 | We've had a big surprise from the government, in that |
| 01:31:08 | they have agreed to give to foresters all their Kyoto credits |
| 01:31:12 | and also the liabilities that go with those. |
| 01:31:15 | But there's still an awful lot of issues |
| 01:31:18 | to sort out about how forestry works through this. |
| 01:31:21 | But then, crucially, how foresters actually manage the forests. |
| 01:31:25 | And very particularly, how they create carbon credits there |
| 01:31:30 | and verify those, which they can then |
| 01:31:33 | trade in New Zealand and hopefully abroad. |
| 01:31:37 | This is all really new areas that the whole world is wrestling with. |
| 01:31:41 | We'll get there, but it's a pretty fraught process along the way. |
| 01:31:46 | On transport efficiency, the government |
| 01:31:48 | has been, I think, very unambitious. |
| 01:31:51 | By 2015, we'll have fuel economy standards here, |
| 01:31:56 | which will be worse than the EU's and Japan's are today. |
| 01:32:00 | It also sets some other goals which look interesting, |
| 01:32:05 | like more public transport, therefore less |
| 01:32:07 | urban use of single-occupancy vehicles, |
| 01:32:10 | and finding a way to halve transport emissions by 2040. |
| 01:32:14 | And perhaps 60% of our new cars will be electric, |
| 01:32:17 | or 60% of the cars entering the fleet in 2040 will be electric. |
| 01:32:22 | Well, this is really difficult. |
| 01:32:24 | This is the top blue line, where emissions from transport are going. |
| 01:32:29 | The green is where we can reduce |
| 01:32:31 | demand a bit, public transport and the like. |
| 01:32:33 | And we can improve vehicle efficiency a bit. That's the red. |
| 01:32:36 | And the big thing the government is pinning its |
| 01:32:39 | hope on is that beige bit, which is new fuels. |
| 01:32:43 | Well, there aren't many around at the moment. |
| 01:32:45 | So we really need them by about 2020, new fuels. |
| 01:32:50 | Well, you see petrol declining. That's the yellow and diesel. |
| 01:32:54 | And this big emphasis on a little bit of electricity |
| 01:32:58 | up there, and biodiesel, biojet fuel, and ethanol and the rest. |
| 01:33:02 | This is astonishingly challenging, not just for us, |
| 01:33:04 | but for the rest of the world. |
| 01:33:07 | I'm not saying it can't happen, |
| 01:33:09 | but it won't happen on current trajectories. |
| 01:33:13 | The next one is electricity. |
| 01:33:15 | And the goal is to bring us back to |
| 01:33:18 | having 90% of our electricity from renewables by 2025, |
| 01:33:21 | a position we were last in in 1981, |
| 01:33:26 | and there's, I think, some good policy around that, |
| 01:33:30 | and I'll explain a bit of that policy, but crucially. |
| 01:33:35 | In this, it is not just about how we generate electricity, |
| 01:33:39 | but it's how we save electricity. |
| 01:33:41 | It's not as much about building new power plants, |
| 01:33:44 | megawatts of new electricity; it's about megawatts of electricity saving. |
| 01:33:50 | And Jeanette Fitzsimons has been doing a great job. |
| 01:33:53 | On this, in terms of trying to drive government policy. |
| 01:33:57 | But whereas the OECD says that perhaps 30% |
| 01:34:00 | of our emissions trading will come from energy efficiency, |
| 01:34:04 | that's not the goal that the government is setting for itself. |
| 01:34:08 | There is a forecast from the government, |
| 01:34:11 | that's the purple bars of what could be achieved, |
| 01:34:14 | and the blue bars are what we're aiming for by 2016. |
| 01:34:17 | It's just not good enough. |
| 01:34:19 | Here's where we would hope to reduce our emissions from electricity. |
| 01:34:22 | That's the top line. |
| 01:34:24 | Only a tiny bit, that's the light blue, from electricity demand reduction. |
| 01:34:29 | Then the beige is the renewables, but look at 2020. |
| 01:34:33 | The green stuff coming in there, slightly unfortunately green, |
| 01:34:36 | is capturing carbon from burning coal and finding ways to sequester it. |
| 01:34:42 | The technology is not here yet, |
| 01:34:44 | and it remains to be seen whether it will be here by about 2020. |
| 01:34:48 | I've got all sorts of reservations about |
| 01:34:51 | carbon capture and sequestration as a technology, |
| 01:34:53 | but I won't dwell on that now. |
| 01:34:56 | But although we've got a good trajectory out for, say, |
| 01:34:59 | the next 20 years, 15 to 20 years on renewables, |
| 01:35:03 | on the current technology pathway, we're going to |
| 01:35:06 | be in trouble in about 15 years'time. |
| 01:35:10 | But there is lots of hydro, geothermal, and wind out there. |
| 01:35:14 | This is a forecast from the government, |
| 01:35:16 | but I think they're reliable, as they can be. |
| 01:35:19 | In terms of trying to make these long-term views. |
| 01:35:22 | I won't dwell on the numbers, but there's a little bit more hydro to come, |
| 01:35:27 | there's a lot of geothermal to come, and there's a lot of wind to come. |
| 01:35:30 | And the good news is that with current technologies, |
| 01:35:34 | it economically makes sense. Electricity prices will go up a bit, |
| 01:35:38 | perhaps about 15% to 20%. I'm very skeptical of the 50% forecast |
| 01:35:45 | that came out this past week. |
| 01:35:47 | But this is where we've got, in a sense, a problem. |
| 01:35:51 | We are already low emissions on electricity |
| 01:35:53 | because of our high proportion of renewables. |
| 01:35:58 | New Zealand's right down at the bottom. |
| 01:35:59 | Only France is better than us, and that's because they're mostly nuclear. |
| 01:36:03 | And you see where Australia is at the top of the list. |
| 01:36:06 | So this is a good place to be, |
| 01:36:08 | but because we're so far down this track to carbon-neutral electricity, |
| 01:36:12 | it's going to be hard to get the rest of the way. |
| 01:36:14 | I won't dwell on industrial processes. |
| 01:36:16 | There's a whole load of words on the slide here, |
| 01:36:20 | but this is where industry is really kicking up its heels |
| 01:36:24 | because it's got lots of problems about how |
| 01:36:27 | credits will be allocated, when they'll be phased out, |
| 01:36:30 | how you deal with a splendid new cement plant like... |
| 01:36:33 | The one that Holcim wants to build down in Otago. |
| 01:36:36 | I think it's right to build the plant, |
| 01:36:38 | but it'll be much bigger than the old plant. |
| 01:36:40 | It'll be much more efficient, but even with the |
| 01:36:42 | high efficiency, it'll emit more than the old plant. |
| 01:36:45 | So, how do you deal with that? |
| 01:36:47 | Well, all of these things are |
| 01:36:50 | being discussed now through a leadership forum, |
| 01:36:53 | through technology advisory groups and the rest, |
| 01:36:56 | and that is progressing reasonably well. |
| 01:36:59 | And I think we'll work through these issues over the coming months. |
| 01:37:04 | There's been a lot of criticism from some quarters |
| 01:37:06 | that agriculture doesn't come in until 2013, |
| 01:37:09 | and criticism on the grounds that agriculture has half our emissions. |
| 01:37:14 | Well, that, I think, is an unreasonable position. |
| 01:37:21 | I think it's much more reasonable, |
| 01:37:23 | given that we're still trying to develop the technology |
| 01:37:25 | which will help us reduce those emissions, |
| 01:37:27 | to give agriculture the time to get there. |
| 01:37:30 | I find little complacency about that around the agricultural sector. |
| 01:37:37 | There are plenty of scientists who are working on these issues, |
| 01:37:40 | and there are certainly many farmers that |
| 01:37:43 | I know who take this very seriously. |
| 01:37:45 | And their liability is building up, |
| 01:37:48 | because they will be held to those 2005 levels |
| 01:37:52 | and have to pay above it, and they understand that. |
| 01:37:55 | Now, of that half, a third is nitrous oxide. |
| 01:37:59 | Nitrification inhibitors are here, particularly in drier |
| 01:38:02 | parts of the country, like South Canterbury. |
| 01:38:04 | They're working well. |
| 01:38:06 | Farmers are beginning to understand how to |
| 01:38:09 | take that technology into different climates and different soils. |
| 01:38:12 | So it looks as though we can make some progress on the nitrous oxide side. |
| 01:38:16 | Methane is a byproduct of animals not digesting their feed properly. |
| 01:38:22 | If we could get them to |
| 01:38:24 | digest perhaps different feed, perhaps somewhat differently, |
| 01:38:27 | and so they turned more of that feed into energy, |
| 01:38:30 | which then becomes meat or milk or wool, |
| 01:38:33 | rather than methane, we make progress. |
| 01:38:35 | Now, we know the basic science pathways to deliver that, |
| 01:38:39 | and there is some hope that some supplemental feeds, |
| 01:38:43 | for example, adding molasses to their diet, bringing sugars |
| 01:38:48 | into their diet and things like that, will be |
| 01:38:52 | solutions far sooner, I'm optimistic about this, than later. |
| 01:38:57 | And it would be great to hear Andy West's |
| 01:38:59 | view on that from AgResearch later on after lunch. |
| 01:39:01 | But what's missing in the New Zealand debate |
| 01:39:04 | is that the critics, especially in business, and there |
| 01:39:07 | are many, are counting only the cost of reducing emissions, |
| 01:39:10 | and for my money, they are seriously exaggerating. |
| 01:39:14 | They are completely denying that there is a technological pathway and |
| 01:39:18 | an economic pathway to energy-saving, |
| 01:39:20 | clean technology, and indeed innovation. |
| 01:39:23 | And they're ignoring the costs of not acting on this, and they're |
| 01:39:27 | ignoring that we have a leadership |
| 01:39:29 | role to play, particularly in agriculture. |
| 01:39:30 | And of course, what's missing in the New Zealand debate |
| 01:39:34 | is any sense of excitement that we could actually do something about this, |
| 01:39:38 | or indeed hope that it will happen. So I want to just talk about the hope. |
| 01:39:43 | This is the darkest hour just before the dawn, |
| 01:39:45 | and this is actually inside a cow's stomach, |
| 01:39:47 | and this is actually a photograph from ag research. |
| 01:39:50 | I'm not sure whether it's the first, second, or third stomach, |
| 01:39:52 | but this is our problem. |
| 01:39:56 | These poor cows aren't digesting their feed properly. |
| 01:39:59 | Sorry, a more familiar picture of a Holstein Friesian cow, and as I said, |
| 01:40:06 | it is within our grasp, and we're |
| 01:40:09 | already starting to understand and put together |
| 01:40:12 | a global consortium that's going to deliver |
| 01:40:14 | this, I believe, and we have most |
| 01:40:16 | of the key scientists in the world. |
| 01:40:18 | In this area, we're starting to get serious |
| 01:40:20 | about this when we get this technology right, |
| 01:40:23 | and in, you know, wholesome ways, |
| 01:40:26 | not genetic modification. When we get it |
| 01:40:28 | right, this will be a very significant |
| 01:40:30 | contribution to all farmers of ruminant |
| 01:40:33 | animals in the world, and therefore our |
| 01:40:36 | impact on the world is far greater than |
| 01:40:38 | our 4 million people and our 8 million. |
| 01:40:40 | Cows and our 43 million sheep. This is our distinctive contribution, and it |
| 01:40:48 | will finally have a big impact |
| 01:40:50 | because it will help encourage developing countries |
| 01:40:52 | to come into emissions trading schemes when they can see there is |
| 01:40:56 | technology around like this that is going |
| 01:40:58 | to make an impact, and that's why I |
| 01:41:00 | I have got sort of really frustrated with business, and being so |
| 01:41:05 | miserable through this debate, and not |
| 01:41:08 | understanding that this is, amongst many others, |
| 01:41:11 | our great potential. Finally, I think |
| 01:41:14 | the tide is starting to turn. |
| 01:41:17 | Just leave you with these words, |
| 01:41:19 | because I've been even more indulgent of your |
| 01:41:21 | time than the other speakers have. |
| 01:41:24 | Paul Hawkin, I think, is a very good environmentalist |
| 01:41:28 | who understands the nexus of environment, economics, |
| 01:41:30 | business, and politics very well, |
| 01:41:32 | an American. And he said last year a wonderful thing, |
| 01:41:38 | that what a great time to be born, |
| 01:41:44 | what a great time to be alive, because this |
| 01:41:47 | generation gets to completely change the world. And I |
| 01:41:50 | take that positively, not negatively. Thanks very much indeed. |
| 01:42:05 | Well, there's more to come, and it's after lunch. It'll be sustainability, |
| 01:42:09 | there'll be carbon neutrality, the dilemma of farming, and the carbon |
| 01:42:13 | footprint of your house. To bring to a close this morning's session, |
| 01:42:18 | I want to invite to the podium |
| 01:42:19 | the Vice President of Yoga and Daily Life, Nagenbai Patel. Good afternoon. |
| 01:42:43 | Greetings. Kia ora. Kemcho. Keisei ho. |
| 01:42:50 | We get. Thank you, Noel, for a good introduction. |
| 01:43:00 | His Holy Name is Swāmī Maheśvarānandajī. Though the |
| 01:43:03 | Mayor is not here, my job is to |
| 01:43:06 | acknowledge the speakers at the end of this morning session. |
| 01:43:13 | His Excellency the High Commissioner Finia, |
| 01:43:16 | Sri Ramo Damodaran, a friend of mine and also |
| 01:43:19 | the representative of the U.N., |
| 01:43:23 | Nyananan John Joyce, the president of Yoga and Daily Life, |
| 01:43:30 | Rathilal Chapaneri, the president of |
| 01:43:31 | the New Zealand Centre for Indian Association, |
| 01:43:33 | and many international guests, ladies and gentlemen. |
| 01:43:37 | It is a pleasure, and I give thanks for the very high quality of speakers |
| 01:43:42 | that we have already heard in this morning's session. |
| 01:43:45 | The Sri Swami Mahatma Gandhi World Peace |
| 01:43:48 | Council and Yoga and Daily Life wish |
| 01:43:50 | to express their gratitude to all the speakers who have |
| 01:43:55 | come to this summit, donating their time and |
| 01:43:59 | their money, and making this day so informative and |
| 01:44:03 | inspiring to every one of us here. |
| 01:44:07 | Let's give the first big clap of hands, |
| 01:44:15 | starting with Maori Welcome Seaman June Jackson. |
| 01:44:23 | What a wonderful tradition they showed us, |
| 01:44:28 | which was endorsed by Śrī Svāmī Maheśvarānandajī, |
| 01:44:32 | the President of the World Peace Council. |
| 01:44:34 | Give a big capital hand to them as well. |
| 01:44:42 | Swamiji, the founder of Yoga and Daily Life and also the |
| 01:44:49 | initiative of the World Peace Council, brought us |
| 01:44:54 | peace in our minds and in our hearts. |
| 01:44:59 | This morning, he showed us by starting a śloka, |
| 01:45:03 | "Oṃ Śāntiḥ Śāntiḥ Śāntiḥ."Without Swamiji, |
| 01:45:07 | I'm sure I would not be here, and I'm sure |
| 01:45:10 | you may not be here as well. Particularly the |
| 01:45:13 | summit that he had, the vision, which is |
| 01:45:16 | where world governments are already seriously thinking about. |
| 01:45:20 | And let us show our appreciation to Swamiji |
| 01:45:23 | for bringing this summit to Wellington, New Zealand, for the |
| 01:45:26 | first time in history. |
| 01:45:36 | As ever, Carrie Pendergast, the mayor of Wellington, |
| 01:45:39 | who is also a business manager, |
| 01:45:42 | she has done an MBA, which I took |
| 01:45:45 | part in, and she has already taken action. |
| 01:45:47 | And this morning she told us that her |
| 01:45:51 | council has declared that Wellington is a green city, |
| 01:45:54 | and she's making a rule by laws to make sure that that happens. |
| 01:45:59 | And let's give her a big round |
| 01:46:02 | of applause, because without that, nothing will happen. |
| 01:46:05 | One of the biggest democracies in the world, |
| 01:46:11 | and the High Commissioner, Mr. K.P. Ernest, |
| 01:46:18 | gives us the assurance that his government is part and parcel, |
| 01:46:22 | leaving aside what the U.S. Says, of being |
| 01:46:26 | a part of Kyoto in terms of doing an action, |
| 01:46:30 | and they have reduced the emissions in India. Let's give them a big |
| 01:46:34 | hand to the government of India, as well as to His Excellency. Of course, |
| 01:46:43 | our friend Rāmujī is always very inspiring, |
| 01:46:47 | coming all the way yesterday from New York. |
| 01:46:51 | Then he gave us a very wide knowledge |
| 01:46:57 | about what this peace conference is all about. |
| 01:47:03 | And he has shown us that the UN is not just there, |
| 01:47:08 | but he has also told us that we, as individuals, |
| 01:47:13 | have to take part in it and take action towards it. |
| 01:47:16 | So let's give a big round of applause to Rāmujī. |
| 01:47:19 | And I'm sure all these delegates are taking part in it. |
| 01:47:28 | This morning, Maria Savelle gave us |
| 01:47:32 | a message from the President of Croatia. |
| 01:47:38 | And I heard this president's message |
| 01:47:41 | also in Bratislava, and he's so committed. |
| 01:47:44 | And his government has also taken a positive step to be part |
| 01:47:48 | of the climate change solution and make rules for his country. |
| 01:47:51 | And let's give him a hand as well. |
| 01:47:53 | Peter also gave us a very good insight |
| 01:48:01 | about climate change and also about how genealogy works. |
| 01:48:11 | And let us give him a good pose |
| 01:48:14 | of hands for his contribution to this summit. |
| 01:48:18 | Moving from the spiritual, moral, and economic, |
| 01:48:33 | the scientists David Rett, Peter Lefebvre, and Peter |
| 01:48:41 | Schuster have given us such a wide and |
| 01:48:45 | detailed knowledge about what climate changes are doing. |
| 01:48:49 | Because I have been given a time limit by |
| 01:48:52 | the president, I do not want to break it. |
| 01:48:54 | But what I have learned from those scientists is three things. |
| 01:49:00 | One, is climate change happening? And we all say yes. |
| 01:49:05 | Is the climate change? Can we stop it? Yes. |
| 01:49:09 | And can we do it later than sooner? And yes. |
| 01:49:14 | And let's give them a hand for their great contribution towards this. |
| 01:49:19 | And moving on to the economic side, Rod Orem. |
| 01:49:26 | I do read you, Rod, quite often, and particularly |
| 01:49:33 | in the business columns. And today you have told |
| 01:49:36 | us and you have shown us what business managers |
| 01:49:39 | can do to address climate change, |
| 01:49:42 | use that to make money out of it, and yet help the globe |
| 01:49:46 | and the planet. Thank you all for showing us that way. |
| 01:49:51 | And let's give a good pose of hands. I would also |
| 01:49:58 | ask delegates to begin thinking of questions for |
| 01:50:02 | the plenary session later this afternoon. If you can |
| 01:50:06 | write your questions and leave them in the box at the reception, |
| 01:50:11 | which is going to be at the front. |
| 01:50:13 | We will take it to the next panel for response. |
| 01:50:15 | We look forward to seeing you, everyone, |
| 01:50:18 | this afternoon again. There will be a bell; |
| 01:50:25 | we'll be called back, and kindly be in and be seated. |
| 01:50:29 | And our lovely speaker this afternoon, you're going to enjoy, |
| 01:50:33 | is Rachel Brown, who will be here this afternoon. Thank you. |
| 01:50:38 | It's great to be here, everyone, and welcome to you, |
| 01:50:42 | extended people from across the globe, to New Zealand. I know when |
| 01:50:47 | I get the occasional travel, I don't get a lot of time |
| 01:50:50 | to check out the country I'm in, so |
| 01:50:52 | I really hope that the visitors who come to |
| 01:50:54 | New Zealand do get some time to enjoy this beautiful country we're in. |
| 01:50:59 | Thank you for the invitation, and also thank |
| 01:51:01 | you very much to the people who have |
| 01:51:02 | organized this event. I've been on the end of organizing events before, |
| 01:51:06 | and I know how much pressure and how much work there is |
| 01:51:11 | to be done. And I also want to |
| 01:51:13 | acknowledge the people who have catered today, |
| 01:51:15 | because the food has been tremendous. So, well done there. |
| 01:51:19 | I'm not really a scientist, although I do have a science degree. |
| 01:51:27 | I got that when I was a young student, but now I'm more |
| 01:51:31 | of an agent for change, I guess. And my role is really about |
| 01:51:34 | trying to get the business sector to |
| 01:51:37 | start getting excited and have some hope |
| 01:51:39 | about sustainability. So today, |
| 01:51:45 | That is the organization that I founded in 2002 in New Zealand. |
| 01:51:50 | We really are quite focused on the role in New Zealand. |
| 01:51:53 | Then I'm going to talk about some of the challenges |
| 01:51:55 | that have actually been articulated |
| 01:51:57 | incredibly well by our previous speakers, |
| 01:51:59 | but tie that in with some of the risks that New Zealand businesses |
| 01:52:02 | are starting to experience here. |
| 01:52:05 | Then I'm going to talk about some of the opportunities |
| 01:52:07 | and some of the ways that some of our small businesses in New Zealand |
| 01:52:11 | are starting to pick up on the sustainability thing and move forward. |
| 01:52:15 | And then I'm going to finish, and this is really |
| 01:52:18 | probably just for your information, for the international people here, |
| 01:52:21 | but for the local people, it'll give you a |
| 01:52:23 | bit of a handle on what our organisation is doing |
| 01:52:26 | to try and help move sustainability forward in the business sector. |
| 01:52:30 | I guess I have a real sense, it's kind of |
| 01:52:33 | strange that I've ended up in the role that I'm in, |
| 01:52:36 | because I was brought up by two idealistic parents. |
| 01:52:39 | Both of them were school teachers, and they spent |
| 01:52:44 | my young life following them around in protests: protests against |
| 01:52:49 | issues of gay rights, |
| 01:52:51 | protests against road developments, protests against |
| 01:52:54 | nuclear warfare—a whole lot of stuff in the 70s. |
| 01:52:58 | So I think that started to shape the person that I am now. |
| 01:53:03 | And then I did my studies and a lot of |
| 01:53:06 | stuff around the environment when I was in New Zealand. |
| 01:53:09 | And then I left New Zealand, which in the late or the early 90s |
| 01:53:14 | was a pretty damn beautiful country, |
| 01:53:17 | and went off travelling around the world in my |
| 01:53:20 | idealistic way and was completely horrified by |
| 01:53:22 | some of the huge ecological issues and |
| 01:53:25 | Social issues that I was confronted with |
| 01:53:27 | once I left the shores of New Zealand. |
| 01:53:31 | So I came back with a huge desire to be |
| 01:53:34 | part of the solution to sustainability here in New Zealand, |
| 01:53:38 | and also had this real sense of patriotism, |
| 01:53:41 | which I probably didn't have before I left this country. |
| 01:53:45 | So I developed a sense that New Zealand has |
| 01:53:48 | the opportunity, the natural advantage over many other places, |
| 01:53:52 | to be a bit of a leader in this space. |
| 01:53:54 | So that drove me from my 20s into my nearly 40s. |
| 01:54:00 | In about three months'time, to be in this space, I guess. |
| 01:54:07 | I also have two children now, |
| 01:54:09 | so that helps me to stay committed and stay passionate about this. |
| 01:54:15 | Yeah, so that's kind of why I'm here. |
| 01:54:17 | So now I'm going to just quickly talk a little bit |
| 01:54:19 | about the organization that I run, if this thing will work. |
| 01:54:25 | Do you have to do something snazzy with this? Oh, there we go. |
| 01:54:30 | The Sustainable Business Network was founded in 2002, |
| 01:54:33 | and it was the coming together of |
| 01:54:35 | a number of not-for-profit organisations in New Zealand. |
| 01:54:38 | It was the first time that we brought environmental |
| 01:54:40 | and social issues together for the business sector. |
| 01:54:43 | It was really challenging to do that here because |
| 01:54:46 | the social people thought the social issue was really important, |
| 01:54:50 | and the environmentalists were just about saving whales, |
| 01:54:52 | and then the environmentalists thought the |
| 01:54:55 | social people were just too self-indulgent. |
| 01:54:57 | And they didn't care about the key environmental issues. |
| 01:55:00 | So we had to try and get |
| 01:55:02 | that barrier broken and move this organization forward. |
| 01:55:05 | And we've kind of successfully done that, |
| 01:55:07 | thanks to a bigger movement around sustainability in the globe. |
| 01:55:11 | So in 2002, we had to kind of start |
| 01:55:14 | afresh with the discussions about why sustainability is important. |
| 01:55:18 | And then, over time, it shifted to, "How do we do it?" |
| 01:55:22 | And now our organization is really focused on |
| 01:55:25 | embedding sustainability into the fabric of the business. |
| 01:55:29 | So it's not about an individual in a company trying to make change happen. |
| 01:55:33 | It makes businesses more resilient around sustainability. |
| 01:55:37 | And I'm going to finish the presentation with a couple |
| 01:55:40 | of examples of how we do that in our organization. |
| 01:55:45 | We're quite lucky, very different from Rod Oram's experience. |
| 01:55:49 | We have what you'd probably categorize |
| 01:55:51 | as the early adopters or the innovators, |
| 01:55:54 | the people who are kind of |
| 01:55:56 | passionate about sustainability, joining our network. |
| 01:55:58 | And most of them are small and medium-sized businesses |
| 01:56:02 | run by interesting, passionate people, |
| 01:56:07 | and they've joined our organization because they can see the future. |
| 01:56:11 | They know the stuff that we've talked about before, |
| 01:56:14 | and what they're trying to do is set up business structures |
| 01:56:17 | and ways of being so that they can respond to the future in a positive way. |
| 01:56:22 | We used to be considered to be quite marginal, |
| 01:56:24 | and now we're changing, and we're considered to be quite important. |
| 01:56:30 | So it's a very different space that we find ourselves in these days. |
| 01:56:34 | So our organization does a lot of hand-holding of businesses |
| 01:56:37 | to help them and resource them. |
| 01:56:39 | There's not a lot of support out there |
| 01:56:41 | for the business sector in this space yet, |
| 01:56:42 | but it's growing. |
| 01:56:44 | And I have a real sense of excitement and hope, and so do our members. |
| 01:56:49 | So, there's a bit of a diversity in the New Zealand business sector. |
| 01:56:55 | So, what I'm going to kind of talk about now |
| 01:56:57 | are some of the challenges that have been talked about already by |
| 01:57:00 | some of our fantastic speakers earlier, |
| 01:57:03 | the scientists particularly, who covered that really well. |
| 01:57:07 | And I think this is really important to start looking at |
| 01:57:10 | and reflecting on what that means for our business sector, |
| 01:57:13 | in terms of some of the real risks of not listening well. |
| 01:57:17 | And I guess as I go through these next slides, |
| 01:57:19 | you will have seen a lot of these pictures before, or versions of them, |
| 01:57:23 | but what I'm going to do is then reflect that into the... |
| 01:57:25 | So, what are the risks if businesses aren't doing this now? |
| 01:57:28 | So that's what I'm going to do. |
| 01:57:30 | The first risk I'm going to cover is |
| 01:57:32 | the sustainability risk of not listening and not responding. |
| 01:57:35 | The second one is going to be the financial risks, |
| 01:57:38 | the pressure that's coming from insurers and the banking sector. |
| 01:57:41 | I'm going to talk about the reputational risk and the growing impact |
| 01:57:45 | that the NGO community is starting to have in the business sector. |
| 01:57:49 | And then finish with the changing marketplace that's out there. |
| 01:57:53 | I'm going to try and go through it quite quickly. |
| 01:57:55 | I know Al Gore's movie has been talked about a bit today, but in terms of |
| 01:58:00 | my work, I think Al Gore's movie woke |
| 01:58:03 | the whole world up to sustainability and really started |
| 01:58:06 | to make us, every person on the street, |
| 01:58:09 | much more aware of the big issues that are. |
| 01:58:12 | Confronting us here, not only in New Zealand, |
| 01:58:15 | but also as a globe, what is going on there? |
| 01:58:18 | And the fact that, even though we are small, |
| 01:58:20 | we have a really important role to play. |
| 01:58:23 | But I think, you know, he pointed out all |
| 01:58:26 | that scientific stuff that we've been hearing about before, |
| 01:58:28 | that it's getting hotter and it's having a big impact on our climate, |
| 01:58:31 | and some places are getting warmer and some are getting much wetter. |
| 01:58:36 | But he also followed up that movie by visiting key people around the world. |
| 01:58:40 | And he came to New Zealand, and he |
| 01:58:42 | spoke with some of our key politicians here. |
| 01:58:44 | And what he was trying to do |
| 01:58:46 | was encourage them, using their political force, |
| 01:58:48 | to start putting new regulations in place. |
| 01:58:51 | And I think the real risk for the business community |
| 01:58:54 | that Rod has to play with is that they're not listening to this, |
| 01:58:57 | and they're hoping that their pressure... |
| 01:59:00 | Is going to force some of these regulations to be easier, |
| 01:59:03 | and I guess, on the other side of |
| 01:59:06 | that, hope is, I think that people like us |
| 01:59:08 | can help support the government |
| 01:59:10 | to be a bit braver in their political decision making. |
| 01:59:13 | So it's a real risk from those businesses. |
| 01:59:16 | Who are pretending this isn't an issue? David also talked about |
| 01:59:23 | the ice sheets breaking up and melting, |
| 01:59:26 | and I know that this actually earned a little bit of money |
| 01:59:28 | for some people off the coast of Dunedin |
| 01:59:30 | by flying people on tourism helicopter trips around. |
| 01:59:34 | But for most people, it was actually quite a scary event, |
| 01:59:37 | and with the Wilkins ice sheets starting to break away, |
| 01:59:40 | we're probably going to be seeing more and more of this |
| 01:59:43 | happening off the coast of New Zealand. And that, to me, |
| 01:59:47 | I mean, the timing of that was uncanny. Al Gore's movie came out, |
| 01:59:51 | and icebergs started floating off the coast of New Zealand. |
| 01:59:53 | It was just perfect for making people feel |
| 01:59:55 | like this was real and it was happening here in New Zealand, and it |
| 01:59:59 | put out a really urgent call for change amongst |
| 02:00:03 | the people of New Zealand and also amongst the business sector. |
| 02:00:08 | Another really important point, and this was |
| 02:00:10 | also in Al Gore's movie and talked |
| 02:00:12 | about earlier, was the distribution problem that's |
| 02:00:14 | happening with water. It's not just that |
| 02:00:17 | places are getting drier and some places are |
| 02:00:19 | getting wetter; it's also, where do we put our |
| 02:00:21 | water resources? And in New Zealand, in places |
| 02:00:24 | like Canterbury, they have real issues with water, |
| 02:00:27 | and there's now becoming quite a big |
| 02:00:30 | tension between whether we use water for agricultural |
| 02:00:33 | purposes or whether we use water for energy. |
| 02:00:36 | And some people are suggesting that although |
| 02:00:39 | peak oil is a big issue, particularly for business, maybe the water issue |
| 02:00:43 | might be even more threatening for the business sector. |
| 02:00:48 | In terms of conflict and the topic today |
| 02:00:52 | of world peace, my concern is that water will become, or could become, |
| 02:00:57 | one of the biggest civil strife areas of |
| 02:01:01 | migration and dislocation of people around the world, |
| 02:01:04 | those refugees that we've talked about earlier. So, I guess those three |
| 02:01:10 | slides are really kind of signaling that the business community, who are |
| 02:01:14 | pretending this isn't a major issue |
| 02:01:15 | and hoping it's going to go away, are really dreaming. And I think, |
| 02:01:19 | and my hope is, that they either start to change. |
| 02:01:24 | Or their businesses will slowly get |
| 02:01:26 | overtaken by the new set that is coming up behind them. The next point was |
| 02:01:32 | about the increased ferocity, intensity, |
| 02:01:36 | and regularity of these big storm events that are happening, |
| 02:01:40 | and I have the pleasure of working with a company here in New Zealand |
| 02:01:44 | called IAG Insurance. |
| 02:01:45 | And they have to deal with some of the outfalls of this. |
| 02:01:49 | So, from a financial perspective, they're starting to |
| 02:01:52 | look at how they encourage the growth of |
| 02:01:56 | businesses responding to sustainability in a positive way, |
| 02:01:58 | because climate change is impacting their bottom line. |
| 02:02:01 | And it's going to mean that they get tougher on insuring businesses |
| 02:02:04 | who aren't starting to think about this, |
| 02:02:06 | but they're also starting to put out packages, |
| 02:02:08 | new packages for businesses, which I'll explain a bit later. |
| 02:02:12 | And same with the banking sector. |
| 02:02:15 | They're starting to look at the role they |
| 02:02:17 | play in encouraging the growth of sustainable businesses. |
| 02:02:20 | So that's a real financial incentive for the business sector, |
| 02:02:23 | and it's a major risk if they're not thinking about it. |
| 02:02:27 | The other key risk area is the not-for-profit sector. |
| 02:02:31 | And we've been seeing this over the years |
| 02:02:34 | with child labor issues for Nike or Gap, for example, |
| 02:02:37 | or some of the poor practices of Shell in the '70s. |
| 02:02:41 | And though that bad branding stays with those companies |
| 02:02:44 | for a very long time, the stories are still being told today. |
| 02:02:47 | But the NGO sector in New Zealand |
| 02:02:50 | hasn't always been particularly loud about these issues, |
| 02:02:53 | and in the last few years, |
| 02:02:55 | they've started to get a bit louder about the roles, |
| 02:02:58 | or the lack of response, of the business sector. |
| 02:03:00 | So this reputational risk has become quite scary. |
| 02:03:04 | When this came out a couple of years ago, |
| 02:03:07 | I had a chat with both Mercury Energy and Meridian. |
| 02:03:11 | Mercury Energy thought that the survey was completely poorly done, |
| 02:03:14 | irrelevant, and they didn't care about it. |
| 02:03:18 | And Meridian were clapping their hands with joy, as their number of |
| 02:03:22 | client base just started to grow really quickly once this was published. |
| 02:03:25 | So the reputational risk is really, really important, |
| 02:03:30 | and that brand protection is really important for the business sector. |
| 02:03:34 | The other piece of research that's been coming out is the change |
| 02:03:39 | of the marketplace, the you and me out there who have |
| 02:03:43 | really become a lot more aware about sustainability and are starting to... |
| 02:03:47 | Put our money where our mouth is. A good |
| 02:03:50 | practical demonstration for me today is that |
| 02:03:53 | I said no to that kindly offered |
| 02:03:55 | bottle of plastic, bottle of water, and I just refilled my own. |
| 02:04:00 | I try and do as many things as I |
| 02:04:03 | can during my day to make a difference, |
| 02:04:05 | and I thought that would be one of them. |
| 02:04:09 | But there's a solution-seeking market out there now |
| 02:04:11 | that is trying to find new products and services, |
| 02:04:14 | and I'm one of those people, and I |
| 02:04:16 | know that not all the products and services I'm looking |
| 02:04:19 | for even exist yet. So there's a huge potential |
| 02:04:22 | in the marketplace, but also I'm the kind of girl |
| 02:04:25 | that will go out there and make a |
| 02:04:27 | decision of avoiding one product and buying another now. |
| 02:04:29 | And I'll buy a product because I've |
| 02:04:31 | heard the company's doing the right thing. |
| 02:04:33 | So I'm actively supporting, and I'm willing to pay |
| 02:04:35 | more for the product that's doing the right thing. |
| 02:04:38 | And there are 1.5 million Kiwis who do |
| 02:04:40 | that as a more regular behavioral pattern. |
| 02:04:43 | So it's a risk for the business marketplace; it's a risk |
| 02:04:46 | for business products if they're not responding to this well. |
| 02:04:52 | I love this image of the hand holding the world. |
| 02:04:55 | It's actually not come out particularly well, but it always makes |
| 02:04:59 | me think that although we are quite self-focused, generally speaking, |
| 02:05:03 | we hold a very, very precious environment in our hands in the |
| 02:05:08 | way that we act and respond and live in this world. |
| 02:05:12 | So I'm always excited when I see that picture. |
| 02:05:18 | Anyway, the challenges are huge for business, and the |
| 02:05:21 | risks are really serious, and they're growing all the time. |
| 02:05:23 | But out of this madness and chaos comes a whole lot of opportunities |
| 02:05:28 | for business, and I think that more businesses are starting to sense that |
| 02:05:32 | it's really important that they start responding in a positive way. So, |
| 02:05:34 | out of enlightened self-interest, |
| 02:05:37 | I guess, there's a growing number of businesses. |
| 02:05:40 | That are starting to move into the space. What I'm going to talk |
| 02:05:44 | about next is some of the opportunities that I see for us |
| 02:05:48 | as a country, but also some of the New Zealand businesses, |
| 02:05:50 | and then I'm going to give you a couple of |
| 02:05:52 | examples of businesses that are doing something cool. |
| 02:05:59 | Maybe my images are too large. In 2006, |
| 02:06:06 | I think at the end of 2006-2007, |
| 02:06:10 | our Prime Minister put out this statement about being |
| 02:06:13 | a truly sustainable nation and becoming carbon neutral, |
| 02:06:15 | and you've heard this referred to before. |
| 02:06:17 | I think she was very clever with |
| 02:06:19 | her timing of doing that and putting out a |
| 02:06:22 | big thing for New Zealanders to grapple with, |
| 02:06:26 | and it's incredibly challenging for the New |
| 02:06:30 | Zealand Government to get there because of |
| 02:06:33 | The pressure that comes every time they start |
| 02:06:35 | to put some new policies or regulations forward. |
| 02:06:38 | But I think this is just one of the most spectacularly fantastic |
| 02:06:42 | ideas that I've seen come out of |
| 02:06:44 | the government yet. I'm really supportive of it. |
| 02:06:47 | I think, in terms of New Zealand as |
| 02:06:49 | a nation, we have to move down this space. |
| 02:06:52 | I think that the brand Clean Green New |
| 02:06:56 | Zealand is absolutely fundamental to our economic survival. |
| 02:06:59 | We rely on it for the tourism sector, which is |
| 02:07:03 | something like $8.3 billion in income for New Zealand. |
| 02:07:07 | We also need it for our export sector |
| 02:07:10 | and agricultural sector, which Rod was talking about. |
| 02:07:13 | And there are a lot of threats coming out there from long-haul flights. |
| 02:07:18 | People like George Monbiot won't get on the plane anymore, |
| 02:07:20 | and we have to beam him in via the sky. |
| 02:07:24 | And it's the same thing that's happening with food miles. |
| 02:07:28 | So these are really serious things, and New Zealand |
| 02:07:30 | Has to grapple with it in a really superb way, |
| 02:07:34 | and I also believe that saying that Anita Roddick used to use, |
| 02:07:38 | "Even though we're small as a nation, if you're sleeping with a mosquito, |
| 02:07:42 | you know, we can be really, really irritating to other people." |
| 02:07:45 | And I think the ability for |
| 02:07:46 | New Zealand to change the world is there. |
| 02:07:50 | You know, don't let being small be an excuse |
| 02:07:53 | for inaction, I guess. The other good thing |
| 02:07:57 | that came out last year, in 2006, was the |
| 02:08:01 | Stern Report, which was the economic analysis |
| 02:08:04 | of climate change. And it basically said that |
| 02:08:07 | we have to spend the money up front. We haven't got an economic |
| 02:08:11 | excuse anymore. The longer we leave it, |
| 02:08:13 | the more expensive it gets. So that was the |
| 02:08:15 | perfect message we needed for the |
| 02:08:16 | business sector and to propel governments forward, |
| 02:08:18 | although they're going too damn slowly in my opinion, |
| 02:08:22 | but he also pointed out that this market for new |
| 02:08:26 | Technologies were growing really quickly, |
| 02:08:28 | and I imagine this is a conservative estimate, |
| 02:08:30 | but $500 billion of market is out there for these new ideas. |
| 02:08:35 | And if New Zealand got behind that, |
| 02:08:37 | seriously got behind that with new funding, |
| 02:08:40 | new support for these new ideas, |
| 02:08:42 | I think we'd be creating some pretty neat solutions. |
| 02:08:47 | So the next thing I'm going to talk about is, |
| 02:08:49 | what do I mean by low-carbon technology? Well, |
| 02:08:52 | I kind of don't always talk about climate change, |
| 02:08:55 | because I think sustainability is much bigger than |
| 02:08:58 | climate change. It incorporates a lot of different issues. |
| 02:09:01 | And in terms of how we create these |
| 02:09:04 | new products, I think we've got to get |
| 02:09:05 | a bit clearer on what kind of characteristics |
| 02:09:07 | make up a sustainable product. So I've just listed five |
| 02:09:11 | key ones out there that have all got ecological and social |
| 02:09:15 | principles tied in with them, and I've also got some images |
| 02:09:19 | on there which kind of give you a |
| 02:09:21 | bit of a picture for what I'm talking about. |
| 02:09:23 | So, in terms of cyclic products, they are ones that can |
| 02:09:26 | be taken from and returned back to the earth safely. |
| 02:09:31 | Solar products are ones that would run on |
| 02:09:34 | renewable energies or be built by renewable energies. |
| 02:09:37 | The safe ones are really referring to toxic products, |
| 02:09:39 | so that we can get toxic ones out |
| 02:09:41 | of the environment, and the efficient ones are |
| 02:09:43 | like the hybrid, the Prius, that I think |
| 02:09:46 | David was talking about, or Gareth was talking. |
| 02:09:49 | About earlier, and then the social ones are |
| 02:09:51 | making sure that we're taking heed of |
| 02:09:54 | all those social, child labour, fair trade issues |
| 02:09:56 | that are coming through. And that one, |
| 02:09:58 | there has been a really fast-growing market here. |
| 02:10:00 | In New Zealand, the Sustainable Business Network is actively trying to |
| 02:10:04 | encourage the growth of these products. New Zealand, new ideas, |
| 02:10:08 | new thinking. And one of our companies that is doing |
| 02:10:13 | some really interesting stuff is a sport bed making |
| 02:10:17 | company here in New Zealand called Design Mobile. And they've set |
| 02:10:21 | their whole business up on the premise that they can be sustainable, |
| 02:10:25 | and they're not 100% perfect. |
| 02:10:26 | They're still exporting their products offshore, and that's |
| 02:10:29 | a big burden. They have to do quite a lot of travel. But the whole design |
| 02:10:33 | of their products, from the cradle |
| 02:10:35 | to the grave, has taken in sustainability criteria. |
| 02:10:37 | They use natural latex mattresses, |
| 02:10:41 | organic fiber, and forest-certified timber in their products. |
| 02:10:45 | They're doing a fantastic job, and these guys are influencing |
| 02:10:49 | that whole sector, so the sector is |
| 02:10:51 | starting to follow them. But, like Anita Roddick |
| 02:10:53 | did with the beauty industry. |
| 02:10:58 | Another passionate man, Jeff Henderson, has been creating |
| 02:11:01 | wind flow with his friends, and he's got |
| 02:11:05 | a fantastic mission statement of trying to |
| 02:11:08 | be a global leader in wind technology. |
| 02:11:11 | And you don't really think of New Zealand being a |
| 02:11:14 | leader in this space, you might think of Holland or maybe |
| 02:11:16 | in the States, but he's doing some fantastic work here in |
| 02:11:19 | New Zealand, and we're really excited about what's coming up there. |
| 02:11:23 | We're also starting to see the corporate sector moving in this space, |
| 02:11:27 | but mainly they're following the rest of their corporates offshore. |
| 02:11:33 | So they don't seem to be doing anything particularly new in New Zealand, |
| 02:11:36 | but it's good that they're getting new services coming up. |
| 02:11:39 | Westpac's got a green mortgage that |
| 02:11:40 | encourages people, when they buy a house, |
| 02:11:42 | to start to retrofit and install |
| 02:11:45 | insulation and energy-efficient bulbs, et cetera. |
| 02:11:49 | And then IAG through NZI have got a new insurance package, |
| 02:11:54 | which means that the less you drive, the less you pay for your insurance, |
| 02:11:57 | which is an incredibly useful and active way of encouraging good behaviour. |
| 02:12:02 | So these things are coming, and they're coming fast, |
| 02:12:06 | from all across the business community now. |
| 02:12:10 | So it's a really hopeful and exciting time to be around, I think. |
| 02:12:15 | I have no idea what the time is, what I... |
| 02:12:17 | I lost my watch, which stopped at the end of last year, |
| 02:12:23 | and I haven't got a new one. |
| 02:12:25 | I think it's telling me to slow down and just chill out. |
| 02:12:31 | Maybe the key things about how to do it |
| 02:12:33 | well—excuse me, I do have to blow my nose, |
| 02:12:35 | I've got a bit of a cold—and Nick told... |
| 02:12:39 | Me not to tell anyone, but you've probably guessed |
| 02:12:43 | the key things about doing it well, |
| 02:12:47 | and I think this is where the Sustainable |
| 02:12:49 | Business Network has really been focusing our energy, |
| 02:12:51 | is helping businesses work out how to do it really well. |
| 02:12:53 | Is that the thing that people quite often seem to do wrong, |
| 02:12:57 | in my opinion anyway, |
| 02:12:59 | is that they don't have a really |
| 02:13:01 | good understanding of the big system that we're |
| 02:13:02 | in and how their business impacts that system. |
| 02:13:05 | And therefore, what it should be doing to reshape its business, |
| 02:13:08 | so it can create a vision for a business |
| 02:13:10 | that doesn't undermine our ecological and social fabric of this globe. |
| 02:13:15 | So we're helping through an organization called the Natural Step Foundation |
| 02:13:20 | to come up with new ways for businesses to do that high-level thinking, |
| 02:13:24 | and then the next step is to develop really effective strategies to embed |
| 02:13:28 | the new way of thinking into business, come up |
| 02:13:30 | with some actions, and then a bunch of tools. |
| 02:13:32 | Below which can help to verify some of the statements that |
| 02:13:36 | the business is making. So that's kind of |
| 02:13:38 | a bit of a five-step process for the business sector, |
| 02:13:40 | and we're developing more and |
| 02:13:41 | more information to help businesses do that. |
| 02:13:45 | One key project for strategizing and getting it into business that we've |
| 02:13:49 | developed is the Get Sustainable Challenge, |
| 02:13:51 | and really it's trying to put a lens right |
| 02:13:53 | across the key parts of a business and help embed |
| 02:13:57 | activity in those key parts, from the way that the business is committed. |
| 02:14:01 | To sustainability, its leadership, the future thinking of business, |
| 02:14:05 | make sure that it knows about the key |
| 02:14:07 | issues that are going to come up, resources going in, |
| 02:14:09 | how it looks after its staff, the business system it operates, |
| 02:14:14 | the resources coming out, and the |
| 02:14:16 | relationships it has with key organizations. |
| 02:14:18 | Including academia, government, etc., |
| 02:14:21 | and then how it communicates without greenwashing, |
| 02:14:23 | because greenwashing is appalling and |
| 02:14:25 | people see through that really quickly. |
| 02:14:29 | The other key program that SBN runs is a program called Greenfleet, |
| 02:14:33 | and I don't know if any of you have done much around |
| 02:14:37 | trying to use public transport in New Zealand |
| 02:14:40 | or safely ride or walk around this place, |
| 02:14:42 | but we don't do that particularly well. |
| 02:14:44 | We've designed our cities for the car. |
| 02:14:46 | So this programme was developed in the early |
| 02:14:48 | 2000s to try and start some thinking amongst the |
| 02:14:51 | business sector about how to do good transport planning, |
| 02:14:54 | how to encourage people to and from work without |
| 02:14:57 | their cars, to change the way that our |
| 02:15:00 | Fuels and cars are the quality of fuels and |
| 02:15:02 | cars in the country, and then to do tree |
| 02:15:05 | planting to offset the emissions from your transport fleet. |
| 02:15:09 | So it's been a good project to help get people's thinking around that. |
| 02:15:15 | I'm about to finish. I think |
| 02:15:20 | Al Gore's point about it not being a political issue |
| 02:15:24 | and being a moral one is really important. Due to |
| 02:15:26 | the time scales of things, I |
| 02:15:28 | think governments aren't doing this fast enough. |
| 02:15:30 | We're not moving fast enough, so I think we, everyone in this room... |
| 02:15:34 | Now that you've been enlightened for a day, |
| 02:15:36 | you're probably already enlightened beforehand, |
| 02:15:38 | but we've all got responsibility, moral responsibility, to get out there |
| 02:15:42 | and get cracking on this. We haven't got a lot of time |
| 02:15:46 | to waste, and I think we've all got... |
| 02:15:48 | These little things we can do in everyday life, |
| 02:15:50 | personally, but also professionally. You can influence |
| 02:15:54 | your businesses to do something, and you've |
| 02:15:56 | got to start standing up and getting |
| 02:15:58 | a bit excited about it. So there's |
| 02:16:02 | lots going on in this country, and I'm really feeling that |
| 02:16:06 | huge amount of hope and excitement about the future of this, even though |
| 02:16:10 | it kind of looks a bit dreary, and every now and |
| 02:16:12 | then you think, "Oh my god, we're all a bit late." |
| 02:16:14 | But it's not, and please come and join organizations that exist, like ours, |
| 02:16:20 | and get active and help us make it happen. |
| 02:16:24 | And I really hope you enjoy the rest of the day, |
| 02:16:25 | and thank you very much for having me as the first woman up on the stage. |
| 02:16:30 | Thank you, Rachel. |
| 02:16:41 | We heard a lot earlier today about carbon-neutral energy. |
| 02:16:45 | Is carbon-neutral energy possible in New Zealand? |
| 02:16:49 | And if so, is it a question of generation or of demand? |
| 02:16:53 | James Mulder, General Manager, Generation of Mighty River Power Limited, |
| 02:16:57 | will tell us about keeping things running. James. |
| 02:17:08 | Thank you very much. |
| 02:17:09 | I'm the first man to follow a woman in delivering a presentation today. |
| 02:17:16 | First of all, just a very big thanks to the organizers, to Swāmījī, |
| 02:17:21 | and also to all the delegates here that are making this a great event. |
| 02:17:27 | As the title sort of suggests, |
| 02:17:29 | and I'll see if I can do better than everyone else in using this, |
| 02:17:32 | I represent, so I'm here today |
| 02:17:37 | with Mighty River Power, talking about energy. |
| 02:17:44 | As my title would probably suggest, I'm going |
| 02:17:46 | to talk mainly about generation rather than about demand, |
| 02:17:49 | but I will talk quite a bit about demand. |
| 02:17:53 | And I guess where I'm going to start is talking about a worldview |
| 02:17:56 | as to what are the things that are going on globally in energy |
| 02:18:00 | that are also relevant for New Zealand. |
| 02:18:03 | I think the first thing really is that the |
| 02:18:06 | economies of the world over the last few years |
| 02:18:10 | have gone through a pretty rapid expansion, |
| 02:18:12 | and that energy supply is actually uncertain globally. |
| 02:18:16 | One of the challenges I think that we find in New Zealand is, |
| 02:18:19 | if we have a blackout in Auckland, if we have gas problems in Wellington, |
| 02:18:23 | everyone seems to think New Zealand is |
| 02:18:24 | all of a sudden becoming third world. |
| 02:18:27 | For those of you that have traveled, blackouts in the United States, |
| 02:18:32 | blackouts that affect Italy, Austria, huge chunks |
| 02:18:35 | of France happening at the same time |
| 02:18:39 | for many, many hours, if not days, are not uncommon. |
| 02:18:44 | These are challenges that face everyone in |
| 02:18:47 | the Western world and in the developing world. |
| 02:18:49 | So these are not challenges that New Zealand faces alone. |
| 02:18:54 | And I think, interestingly and fortunately, |
| 02:18:56 | that focus on renewables that is starting |
| 02:18:59 | to come through will naturally have a following |
| 02:19:01 | effect and a benefit for New Zealand industry |
| 02:19:04 | in the New Zealand power industry. |
| 02:19:07 | One of the things that is also happening globally |
| 02:19:09 | is a lot more sharing of fuel and of electricity, so where it is possible, |
| 02:19:15 | you see large transmission lines being sort of developed |
| 02:19:17 | between Sweden and northern Germany. |
| 02:19:20 | So, there are more efficient ways of getting power |
| 02:19:22 | into particular markets that have been exploited. |
| 02:19:26 | One of the challenges, I guess, that we face in New Zealand |
| 02:19:28 | is that it's a little more difficult. |
| 02:19:29 | Australia's a hell of a long way away. |
| 02:19:33 | However, other fuels, whether they be liquid, gas, |
| 02:19:36 | or other fuels, are possible. |
| 02:19:40 | The reality, however, is that New Zealand has a huge renewable space which |
| 02:19:44 | will develop, and I'll talk about it more in my presentation. |
| 02:19:49 | Some of the other global issues are around the role of nuclear power, |
| 02:19:51 | not something I really want to go into in this forum, |
| 02:19:54 | not something that I'm terribly keen on, and the role of nuclear power |
| 02:19:58 | supplanting traditional coal or gas-fired generation. |
| 02:20:05 | So, I guess the question is as to what are similar and what are different. |
| 02:20:09 | For New Zealand, I guess the |
| 02:20:11 | similarities are around security and diversity. |
| 02:20:14 | So the blackouts that do occur around the rest of the Western Hemisphere |
| 02:20:18 | also occur here from time to time. |
| 02:20:21 | It's just a reality of an ageing transmission and generation system, |
| 02:20:25 | which probably hasn't had enough invested in |
| 02:20:27 | it over the last 20 or 30 years. |
| 02:20:30 | Climate change, as we've heard today, |
| 02:20:32 | is a huge issue for the power industry, |
| 02:20:34 | and it is one in which New Zealand has quite a |
| 02:20:37 | head start and is also making further strides to be a leader. |
| 02:20:42 | One of the other challenges we also face in New Zealand |
| 02:20:44 | is around transmission reinforcement. |
| 02:20:46 | A lot of talk has sort of occurred in recent months |
| 02:20:49 | about power lines through the Waikato and other parts of the country. |
| 02:20:53 | Unfortunately, one of the quid pro quos |
| 02:20:55 | of an increasingly renewable energy environment, |
| 02:20:58 | at least given current technologies, |
| 02:21:00 | is the need for quite |
| 02:21:02 | significant investments in transmission infrastructure. |
| 02:21:06 | I guess the differences are we don't have to deal with nuclear-type issues, |
| 02:21:11 | we don't have to worry about connecting |
| 02:21:13 | our power system to other power systems, |
| 02:21:15 | and we already have a very high level of renewables in New Zealand. |
| 02:21:22 | As has previously been mentioned by other speakers, |
| 02:21:24 | the government in recent days or recent |
| 02:21:27 | months has published a lot of strategy |
| 02:21:29 | around an emission trading scheme, |
| 02:21:33 | but it has also put quite a lot of work into an energy strategy. |
| 02:21:36 | And my presentation is mainly about the perspiration |
| 02:21:42 | that's been expended by our company and by some others |
| 02:21:45 | around delivering on the aspiration |
| 02:21:47 | that's sort of embodied within government policy. So as a businessman |
| 02:21:52 | and as somebody that is involved in the power industry, |
| 02:21:55 | this presentation is very much about showing what we're actually doing, |
| 02:21:57 | because there is a huge amount of work that's been done, |
| 02:22:00 | not just today, not just yesterday, but going back five or ten years. |
| 02:22:04 | A huge amount of work is now starting to |
| 02:22:07 | bear fruit, which I would like to talk about. |
| 02:22:10 | Just to give you a lay of the land, |
| 02:22:12 | this rather complicated slide gives you |
| 02:22:15 | a bit of a sense for the supply-demand |
| 02:22:18 | balance for energy in New Zealand. It goes back to the year 2000 |
| 02:22:22 | along the bottom of the chart. |
| 02:22:24 | Early on, you see that sort of magenta colour, |
| 02:22:26 | which is our thermal generation capacity. |
| 02:22:30 | The dark blue sort of reflects the hydro that we can rely upon |
| 02:22:34 | in dry years like this one, and the lighter shades. |
| 02:22:38 | Of blue above it represent what we can expect in |
| 02:22:42 | medium and in wet years, so what you see is |
| 02:22:45 | where that intersects with the black line, which is our demand. |
| 02:22:48 | You see, generally speaking, supply and demand |
| 02:22:51 | are pretty easily covered, even in a dry year, |
| 02:22:54 | right through to, on our projections, towards the |
| 02:22:58 | back end of the next decade. Then things start |
| 02:23:01 | to get a little more challenging. The other thing |
| 02:23:04 | I draw your attention to is the fact that we are |
| 02:23:07 | not actually seeing, or expecting to see, |
| 02:23:09 | too much new thermal generation being deployed |
| 02:23:11 | in the New Zealand environment. We're actually seeing |
| 02:23:14 | a lot of geothermal and quite a bit |
| 02:23:16 | of wind, but my presentation will mainly |
| 02:23:19 | talk about the developments in geothermal energy |
| 02:23:22 | that our company is pioneering, along with some of our competitors. |
| 02:23:29 | So for Mighty River, we have quite a |
| 02:23:33 | few diverse fuel options. We generate electricity from |
| 02:23:37 | biomass from landfills, from our hydro stations |
| 02:23:40 | on the Waikato River, assuming we've got water, |
| 02:23:43 | and we also operate a number of geothermal |
| 02:23:47 | stations in the middle of the North Island. |
| 02:23:50 | And a small gas fire power station in Auckland. |
| 02:23:53 | So for us, diversity is very, very important to |
| 02:23:57 | making sure that we can actually supply energy |
| 02:23:59 | to our consumers and sort of bring that last |
| 02:24:02 | element of the sustainability trifecta, |
| 02:24:05 | economic development, together with social and environmental. |
| 02:24:07 | Mental concerns. For us, our geothermal development |
| 02:24:12 | has been almost exclusively with Māori. |
| 02:24:16 | One of the things that has taken a little bit |
| 02:24:18 | of time is for both parties to gather enough trust, |
| 02:24:20 | mainly them of us, I would be fair to say. |
| 02:24:25 | But a lot, if not all, of our geothermal power |
| 02:24:29 | developments have been in concert with Māori, |
| 02:24:31 | where they are active parties and active |
| 02:24:34 | partners in the development of power projects. |
| 02:24:36 | So, some of the largest generators in New Zealand, |
| 02:24:39 | for which we provide services, |
| 02:24:41 | are not actually some of the household names that |
| 02:24:44 | you would know, but are actually Māori companies, |
| 02:24:48 | majority owned by iwi trusts, and are doing |
| 02:24:51 | A very, very good job in |
| 02:24:53 | bringing sustainable and renewable generation to market. |
| 02:24:57 | As far as New Zealand is concerned, |
| 02:25:00 | and Rob had already sort of given you some flavour |
| 02:25:03 | for this, unlike other countries, |
| 02:25:05 | unlike Europe, unlike the United States, electricity generation |
| 02:25:08 | actually presents a reasonably small |
| 02:25:10 | Element of our overall carbon footprint. |
| 02:25:13 | The overwhelming area, the green area in the particular chart behind me, |
| 02:25:17 | is from agriculture. The challenge, I guess, for us is to actually build on |
| 02:25:24 | what is actually an industry which has |
| 02:25:26 | been built on very low carbon intensity |
| 02:25:28 | and do better. |
| 02:25:31 | The good news is that we've got quite a lot of history in doing better, |
| 02:25:34 | and there's quite a lot of work, as I mentioned before, |
| 02:25:37 | going on to make sure that we continue |
| 02:25:40 | to stay in a similar position on the league |
| 02:25:43 | tables when it looks at low-intensity carbon electricity generation. |
| 02:25:49 | Most of the carbon that's emitted from our |
| 02:25:53 | sector is in the form of coal and gas. |
| 02:25:57 | There is some from geothermal, as part |
| 02:26:01 | of the geothermal generation process, CO2 does. |
| 02:26:05 | And in some fields, some of the CO2 |
| 02:26:08 | concentrations are quite high, escaping to the environment. |
| 02:26:11 | One of the real benefits of the emission trading scheme is |
| 02:26:14 | the amount of work that, by putting a price on carbon, |
| 02:26:17 | as Rod mentioned in an earlier presentation, is seeing us invest |
| 02:26:20 | in new technologies to try and take the carbon that comes out. |
| 02:26:24 | Even though it's small in scale, it's still quite |
| 02:26:26 | a large amount of carbon dioxide that is emitted. |
| 02:26:29 | Trying to capture that carbon and then sequester it |
| 02:26:32 | into the geothermal reservoirs from which we're taking out energy. |
| 02:26:37 | So, quite a lot of good technology, quite a lot of investment |
| 02:26:40 | as a result of putting a price on carbon, is starting to come through. |
| 02:26:44 | So our company, together with others, will continue to |
| 02:26:48 | invest in this area with very high expectations of success. |
| 02:26:51 | So as far as Mighty River is concerned, |
| 02:26:58 | our mix of renewable energy to non-renewables was about 90%. |
| 02:27:05 | I think a previous speaker sort of had mercury energy |
| 02:27:09 | at the top of a reasonably glowing thermometer around carbon intensity. |
| 02:27:14 | I was actually the executive that wasn't terribly |
| 02:27:17 | concerned about what that particular NGO had to say, |
| 02:27:20 | because I knew that we were 90% renewable |
| 02:27:22 | and the guy below us was about 90% coal. |
| 02:27:26 | So that didn't concern me terribly much. |
| 02:27:29 | So, for a business, our business is very much about renewables. |
| 02:27:35 | Our business is all about the |
| 02:27:36 | development of renewables with iwi partnerships. |
| 02:27:39 | And for that, we believe we can maintain the current supply-demand balance |
| 02:27:44 | for the power industry for the next 10 years. |
| 02:27:46 | And we actually believe we've also |
| 02:27:48 | got opportunities to develop new technology |
| 02:27:49 | that makes that even more efficient |
| 02:27:51 | and start to deliver benefits into the back |
| 02:27:53 | end of the next decades that we look to. |
| 02:27:56 | I've spoken quite a bit about emissions from different power stations, |
| 02:28:01 | and you can see again our own emissions relative to a coal-fired |
| 02:28:08 | power station or generator, |
| 02:28:10 | like Genesis, or a predominantly gas-fired generator like, |
| 02:28:14 | sorry, coal-fired generator like Genesis. |
| 02:28:17 | And a gas-fired generator, like Contact. |
| 02:28:21 | So our position is pretty small, but we do |
| 02:28:24 | see the value in the diversity of different fuel types. |
| 02:28:26 | We're at the moment experiencing, I think, the worst hydrological |
| 02:28:30 | sequence or rainfall sequence in the Waikato region for 82 years. |
| 02:28:35 | We've heard quite a lot from previous speakers about the role of |
| 02:28:39 | climate change in terms of longer |
| 02:28:41 | droughts and more pronounced flooding events. |
| 02:28:44 | The challenges around managing a renewable energy |
| 02:28:47 | portfolio in that environment are very real. |
| 02:28:50 | And that occurs at the same time as farmers and |
| 02:28:53 | others want to get more water for irrigation and everything else. |
| 02:28:56 | So the competing priorities of the communities on |
| 02:28:59 | scarce resources that are used for power development |
| 02:29:02 | are going to become more and more critical for us. |
| 02:29:05 | So one of the challenges we face as an economy |
| 02:29:08 | is to make sure that we do make sensible selections |
| 02:29:11 | around what we use these finite resources for, |
| 02:29:15 | because all of our projections around future energy use |
| 02:29:19 | assume not only that we make some modest gains. |
| 02:29:22 | Around energy efficiency, but also that the existing uses of hydro |
| 02:29:26 | and other renewable energy sources remain intact. |
| 02:29:33 | So just giving you some flavor of where our developments are, |
| 02:29:36 | it shouldn't surprise anyone that most |
| 02:29:38 | of the geothermal development in New Zealand, |
| 02:29:40 | if not all of it, is in the Taupo volcanic zone north of Taupo. |
| 02:29:44 | But I think what will surprise you is some of the names on here |
| 02:29:47 | are pretty well known to most people, names like Wairaraki |
| 02:29:50 | and maybe even Karaua, known sources of geothermal activity. |
| 02:29:57 | But some of the others, like Mokai, like Rotokawa, |
| 02:30:01 | these are very large generation plants, |
| 02:30:03 | quite a long way away from large population centres. |
| 02:30:08 | They're not household names, but in the case of the Mokai plant, |
| 02:30:13 | I think Mokai is the fifth largest generating company in New Zealand. |
| 02:30:19 | Or, sorry, the sixth largest. |
| 02:30:21 | So, a very, very significant generator in its own right, |
| 02:30:24 | a business majority owned by Māori interests. |
| 02:30:29 | So as far as challenges are concerned, I've sort of given you some of them. |
| 02:30:34 | One of the biggest issues, I think we've got, |
| 02:30:37 | is people originally referred to it as a NIMBY problem. |
| 02:30:40 | Somebody has referred to it, which is not in my backyard. |
| 02:30:44 | The other one is the banana, which I loosely understand to be: |
| 02:30:48 | build absolutely nothing anywhere near anybody. |
| 02:30:51 | These issues are quite real. |
| 02:30:54 | The people quite genuinely are offended |
| 02:31:00 | by some of the changes to landscapes |
| 02:31:02 | brought about by wind turbines, for example, or hydro schemes, |
| 02:31:07 | and even within the green movement. |
| 02:31:11 | You see green groups opposing wind farm developments, |
| 02:31:13 | so there are some real challenges about getting |
| 02:31:17 | some of these developments up. The whole reason that they're renewable |
| 02:31:20 | is that they actually use the environment to generate electricity |
| 02:31:23 | without burning fossil fuels. The problem is that they do have costs. |
| 02:31:30 | Those costs are often such that they may seem unsightly. |
| 02:31:33 | Certainly, some of the more emerging |
| 02:31:35 | technologies, like wind and wave power, |
| 02:31:36 | potentially have huge implications for our foreshores and beaches |
| 02:31:40 | in some of their guises. So the reality is that there's no free lunch. |
| 02:31:47 | Demand-side participation, given that this presentation was about |
| 02:31:50 | both supply and demand, has been somewhat lacking, |
| 02:31:52 | but I guess our position, or certainly my |
| 02:31:56 | view around demand-side participation, is it's pretty simple. |
| 02:32:00 | The place to start is actually in the home. |
| 02:32:03 | New Zealand's housing stock probably turns over once every 20 years, |
| 02:32:07 | and yet most of us that have lived overseas and in other countries |
| 02:32:10 | and then come back to New Zealand look at our homes and say, |
| 02:32:13 | "Why do we live in fridges?" |
| 02:32:17 | That's the easiest place to start in |
| 02:32:19 | terms of demand reduction for electricity use. Actually, |
| 02:32:22 | building homes that don't require a huge amount of energy to go |
| 02:32:25 | into them to keep them at WHO-type standards is the key. |
| 02:32:29 | Now, I'm aware that there's another speaker on this issue after me, |
| 02:32:32 | so I won't dwell on it, but certainly for us, |
| 02:32:34 | tightening of the building codes, double glazing, insulation, |
| 02:32:37 | all those things make huge sense. |
| 02:32:40 | And as we've seen from Rod's presentation, |
| 02:32:41 | these are the lowest forms of greenhouse gas abatement that we can deliver. |
| 02:32:47 | That's where it will start. |
| 02:32:48 | Smart appliances, and some of the video that turns its lights off |
| 02:32:52 | and everything else at night when you don't use it. When the Japanese, |
| 02:32:57 | who have power prices three times ours, start designing their appliances |
| 02:33:01 | with it, we'll naturally get the benefit of those. |
| 02:33:03 | But there are countries that are |
| 02:33:04 | a long way up the cost curve in |
| 02:33:07 | terms of residential electricity, who are far more |
| 02:33:08 | incentivized to make those changes, and in |
| 02:33:10 | actual fact, far more capable of doing it. |
| 02:33:13 | Given that they often, in many cases, control the technology. |
| 02:33:16 | So we'll be a fast follower in that view. |
| 02:33:19 | We've got to be a much faster follower in terms of our building standards |
| 02:33:23 | and the homes that we put our people into. |
| 02:33:24 | As far as emerging technologies are concerned, |
| 02:33:28 | there's no question, there are a lot of them. |
| 02:33:29 | We've seen demonstrations of photovoltaic cells that come in a spray can. |
| 02:33:36 | You can paint a photovoltaic cell on the side of a house |
| 02:33:40 | and turn it into an electricity generator. |
| 02:33:42 | There's no question that in some time these things will be economic |
| 02:33:45 | and will be deployed. Of that, I have little doubt. |
| 02:33:49 | One of the challenges, as my wife and children |
| 02:33:51 | tell me, is that it's all about timing. |
| 02:33:55 | And relying on those technologies for a point in the |
| 02:33:59 | future and not hitting them, the costs are pretty large. |
| 02:34:03 | Our grid operator here in New Zealand during the |
| 02:34:06 | 1990s assumed that a number, not so much those ones, |
| 02:34:09 | but a number of distributed technologies would be deployed |
| 02:34:12 | around New Zealand by the end of the 1990s. |
| 02:34:15 | That didn't happen, and now we're paying |
| 02:34:17 | the price of having to play catch-up |
| 02:34:18 | around those large transmission investments that have to happen to bring |
| 02:34:22 | power to people. The last thing I just wanted to touch on is just to really |
| 02:34:27 | endorse Rod's comments around the Emission Trading Scheme. We're an active |
| 02:34:31 | participant in the Emission Trading Scheme. We have exposures from our |
| 02:34:35 | geothermal and thermal plants that we have to cover. |
| 02:34:38 | We, like Rod, are probably a |
| 02:34:40 | little bit surprised that businesses haven't embraced what presents a huge |
| 02:34:44 | number of opportunities for us. Certainly, in our case, it does present the |
| 02:34:48 | opportunity now to look at technologies |
| 02:34:50 | for sequestering carbon coming out of |
| 02:34:53 | our geothermal stations that probably |
| 02:34:55 | wouldn't have been economic before. |
| 02:34:57 | So for that, we have quite a bit |
| 02:34:59 | to thank from the introduction of the Emission |
| 02:35:01 | Trading Scheme. The last thing, I guess, is really just, in summary, |
| 02:35:09 | just a recognition that we have some terrific landscapes, some of |
| 02:35:14 | which aren't hugely detracted, in my view, |
| 02:35:17 | from the addition of power plants. |
| 02:35:22 | Even small-scale geothermal plants have a |
| 02:35:25 | huge opportunity to deliver base load; i.e., |
| 02:35:27 | it doesn't matter if it's raining |
| 02:35:30 | or windy or whatever, they generate power 24/7. |
| 02:35:34 | We have huge opportunities to develop some of |
| 02:35:36 | these renewable fuel sources that we have here, |
| 02:35:38 | which are also very, very low carbon intensity sources. |
| 02:35:42 | So, in conclusion, energy security is a global thing. |
| 02:35:50 | The problems that we face in New Zealand aren't unique, |
| 02:35:52 | even though we like to think that they probably are, |
| 02:35:54 | particularly when the lights go out. |
| 02:35:55 | These are certainly not unique challenges. |
| 02:35:58 | And our solution depends on being pretty flexible. |
| 02:36:01 | One of the great things about the New Zealand condition |
| 02:36:03 | is that we are pretty flexible, |
| 02:36:05 | and that no one single technology will probably deliver the right answer, |
| 02:36:09 | but a combination of them probably will. |
| 02:36:12 | We do need to look at the trade-offs between different uses of resources. |
| 02:36:17 | That's always been a feature of the things that we've had to do. |
| 02:36:20 | And I guess, as a company, Mighty River as a company, |
| 02:36:23 | is actively looking at continuing to build those options. |
| 02:36:26 | We're delivering on the options today that we developed ten years ago. |
| 02:36:30 | It does take a long time to get these things through the mill. |
| 02:36:34 | But we are active in trying to develop new sources of energy, |
| 02:36:37 | secure new sites, and build for |
| 02:36:41 | a future. And the last piece is that all of that work is being |
| 02:36:46 | done with the support of communities, |
| 02:36:48 | and particularly with our iwi partners. |
| 02:36:51 | Thank you. Thank you, James. Many of our |
| 02:37:05 | earlier speakers have drawn our attention to the fact that |
| 02:37:09 | New Zealand's greenhouse gases, for the most part, don't come from |
| 02:37:13 | the rear end of motorcars or even from the rear end of cows. |
| 02:37:17 | Most of them come from the front end of cows. Most of our greenhouse gases. |
| 02:37:21 | Dr. Andrew West, Chief Executive of AgResearch, |
| 02:37:24 | draws our attention to the fact that we are living off the cow's back. |
| 02:37:29 | Farming and the economy. Can we maintain our current way of life? |
| 02:37:33 | Dr. Andrew West. |
| 02:37:41 | Thank you, Noel. |
| 02:37:42 | Thank you for the privilege to be able to speak here today, delegates. |
| 02:37:46 | I'll get straight into it. Here's the problem. |
| 02:37:53 | In fact, this slide has two problems. |
| 02:37:56 | The first is, it talks about human population on the planet, |
| 02:37:58 | and the second is that it actually just talks about the population, |
| 02:38:01 | and that shows an incredibly selfish, anthropogenic view, |
| 02:38:05 | which will come through a lot in this talk, |
| 02:38:08 | but I think it is one of the most profound moral, if you want. |
| 02:38:13 | Issues for humanity in the future, so I'll touch on that. |
| 02:38:17 | Okay, between 1900 and 2005, |
| 02:38:20 | the world's human population grew from 1.69 billion |
| 02:38:24 | to about 6.45 billion people, |
| 02:38:26 | and it's predicted to go to 9 billion by 2065 or thereabouts. |
| 02:38:31 | Now, if you just look at the |
| 02:38:33 | kilograms of biomass represented by 9 billion people, |
| 02:38:35 | that's an astonishing dominance of one species. |
| 02:38:39 | Agricultural land occupies some 12% of the Earth's ice-free surface |
| 02:38:44 | and supplies nearly 90% of food production, |
| 02:38:47 | with the rest coming from fisheries, aquaculture, and a few minor sources. |
| 02:38:51 | In this process, human activities have completely refashioned |
| 02:38:54 | at least 20 million square kilometers, |
| 02:38:57 | or 15% of the Earth's surface, as agricultural land, |
| 02:39:01 | urban land, or water reservoirs. |
| 02:39:03 | Other areas have been modified, but to a lesser degree, |
| 02:39:06 | certainly still modified, |
| 02:39:08 | including permanent pastures, forests, and tree plantations, |
| 02:39:12 | bringing the total to some 70 million square kilometres, |
| 02:39:15 | or about 55% of the non-glaciated land. |
| 02:39:18 | It's estimated that humans appropriate between 25% and 40% |
| 02:39:22 | of the global terrestrial biological production for their own use. |
| 02:39:27 | Now, those are the essential statistics, and I'm a lapsed ecologist. |
| 02:39:32 | I used to study those sorts of population dynamics in insects. |
| 02:39:35 | They used to be called the old J-curves, |
| 02:39:37 | because what inevitably happened was a large crash |
| 02:39:39 | just after you'd gone off the exponential scale. Let's keep going. |
| 02:39:49 | I have one hero, and I really do have one hero. |
| 02:39:53 | It's this man behind me, James Lovelock. |
| 02:39:56 | I believe he's the greatest scientist who ever lived, |
| 02:39:58 | who has ever lived. He's actually still alive; he lives in North Devon, |
| 02:40:02 | 87 years old. The Earth's human |
| 02:40:08 | population poses a tremendous challenge to the complex |
| 02:40:12 | feedback system that makes up our natural and physical world, |
| 02:40:16 | embodied in the Gaia hypothesis |
| 02:40:18 | of Professor James Lovelock. Lovelock proposed |
| 02:40:20 | this in the late 1960s, so he went back that far. |
| 02:40:24 | That the Earth is a complex, interacting system |
| 02:40:26 | that can be thought of as a superorganism. |
| 02:40:28 | This is the scientific definition of Gaia. |
| 02:40:31 | This super organism is capable of |
| 02:40:34 | homeostasis; that is, when it is subject to stress, |
| 02:40:37 | it changes its behavior in response |
| 02:40:40 | to counteract that stress. |
| 02:40:41 | These responses stabilize the overall biophysical system and |
| 02:40:45 | make it suitable for life. |
| 02:40:47 | And in case you think, "Well, that's just hogwash,"probably |
| 02:40:50 | in the last four billion years or so, |
| 02:40:54 | the sun's luminosity has increased by about 25%, |
| 02:40:58 | and that's an awful lot more energy hitting the planet's surface, |
| 02:41:01 | and yet the planet has maintained a fairly constant surface temperature. |
| 02:41:06 | It hasn't done that by chance. |
| 02:41:09 | It's done through stabilization mechanisms, the Gaian hypothesis. |
| 02:41:14 | Inevitably, however, any homeostatic system can be pushed only so far |
| 02:41:17 | and still return to its original point of equilibrium. |
| 02:41:21 | Too much stress can send the system to a different equilibrium point, |
| 02:41:24 | which might be an undesirable one, |
| 02:41:26 | like the runaway greenhouse gas effect on the planet Venus, |
| 02:41:29 | or it might make it completely unstable, which could easily be even worse. |
| 02:41:34 | I can't imagine anything much worse than |
| 02:41:35 | planet Venus, but it could be, I suppose. |
| 02:41:37 | The key worry is, will 9 billion |
| 02:41:40 | humans and their consumption, or consumptive behaviours, |
| 02:41:43 | send the Gaian system into a new stasis that threatens human civilisation? |
| 02:41:49 | And that is an anthropogenic view. This conference is about climate change. |
| 02:41:54 | Personally, I'm more interested in this: the |
| 02:41:56 | impact of human action on the environment, |
| 02:41:58 | of species threatened or recently extinct. |
| 02:42:00 | The estimated number of species on the planet is about 14 million. |
| 02:42:03 | The number of described species is only about 2 million. |
| 02:42:06 | The number known to be threatened with extinction, |
| 02:42:08 | you can read those figures, 16,000, but it would be higher than that. |
| 02:42:12 | Species facing a high risk of extinction |
| 02:42:14 | include one in four mammals, one in eight birds, one in three amphibians, |
| 02:42:17 | and one in two tortoises and freshwater turtles. |
| 02:42:20 | Now, the estimated ratio of the current rate of extinctions to |
| 02:42:23 | the normal background rate is somewhere between 100,000 and 10,000. |
| 02:42:26 | Somewhere between 100,000 and 10,000 times greater |
| 02:42:29 | rate of extinction is going on right |
| 02:42:32 | now than is estimated from the fossil record to be the background rate, |
| 02:42:35 | unless a bolide hits the planet or something like that. These are facts. |
| 02:42:42 | It's hard to dispute them, unlike whether climate change is occurring. |
| 02:42:46 | Some people will still dispute that. I won't. |
| 02:42:48 | Or what is causing it? Some people will deny it's humans. I won't. |
| 02:42:53 | Sorry, I'll rephrase that. |
| 02:42:54 | I certainly believe it's anthropogenic-induced climate change. |
| 02:42:57 | But you can't dispute that, and that's not being discussed. |
| 02:43:03 | The two great drivers of the extinctions are humans' |
| 02:43:07 | desire to appropriate land for their species'own use |
| 02:43:10 | and the now accelerating rate of climate change. |
| 02:43:15 | So the key question for all of us, us humans, |
| 02:43:19 | is: will the feedback systems of Gaia be |
| 02:43:22 | robust enough to accommodate this level of pressure? |
| 02:43:25 | From 3 billion more humans than is currently the case, |
| 02:43:28 | and the 6 billion we've got right now causing enough trouble. |
| 02:43:31 | How can we feed 9 billion humans without irreversibly changing Gaia, |
| 02:43:35 | or at least making it less habitable for humans? We don't have to worry. |
| 02:43:39 | I mean, you read a lot about worrying about the planet. |
| 02:43:41 | You don't have to worry about the planet. |
| 02:43:42 | The planet will be here until the sun explodes. |
| 02:43:45 | It may have life, and it will be hot, but the planet's going to be here. |
| 02:43:48 | But what will become of our species and others? |
| 02:43:52 | Will Gaia remain comfortably habitable? |
| 02:43:57 | Well, I can't answer that question, |
| 02:43:59 | but I can just explore some facets of it. |
| 02:44:02 | Agricultural science has made a spectacular |
| 02:44:05 | contribution to help accommodate the growing |
| 02:44:08 | human population, so this is agricultural productivity in the 20th century. |
| 02:44:14 | For example, while the harvested area of land, |
| 02:44:17 | which is that top, you see, harvested area |
| 02:44:20 | in gigahectares, I think that is, the harvested |
| 02:44:22 | area of land increased by only 39% in the |
| 02:44:25 | last century. |
| 02:44:27 | The amount of food harvested increased far more rapidly, |
| 02:44:28 | so if you look at the bottom one, |
| 02:44:30 | per capita harvest megajoules a day, |
| 02:44:33 | it's gone up by 86%, whereas the actual land being |
| 02:44:37 | farmed has gone up by 39%. |
| 02:44:40 | And that's come from the third line down: annual yield, |
| 02:44:43 | gigajoules per hectare, has gone up by 379%. |
| 02:44:46 | That's come from plant and animal |
| 02:44:48 | breeding and efficiencies, and annual energy subsidies |
| 02:44:51 | in the form of fertilizers have |
| 02:44:54 | Gone up by 12,700%, massively more intensive. |
| 02:44:58 | But what has that huge productivity done? |
| 02:45:02 | And we've consumed a fair number of ecosystems to do that. |
| 02:45:06 | Is improve food supply. |
| 02:45:09 | And it's resulted in an excess of food supply over demand, |
| 02:45:12 | which has meant food has been getting cheaper in real terms |
| 02:45:15 | for as long as most people can remember. |
| 02:45:17 | From 1974, which is some way into the bottom axis, to 2005, for instance, |
| 02:45:23 | food prices on world markets fell by about three-quarters in real terms. |
| 02:45:27 | That is stunning. |
| 02:45:28 | When you consider that, it's against that backdrop |
| 02:45:31 | of an enormous number of extra people. |
| 02:45:34 | The low price of food signaled a slackening in the growth of demand, |
| 02:45:37 | and the high rate at which agricultural |
| 02:45:39 | production was increasing slowed down in response. |
| 02:45:42 | So overall, we're awash with food on a day-to-day basis. |
| 02:45:45 | But will it stay that way? And I'll examine it. |
| 02:45:48 | But I can't make that statement—we're awash |
| 02:45:50 | with food—without examining, just digressing for a second. |
| 02:45:55 | Energy intake levels by percentage of the world's population. |
| 02:45:58 | In the 1964-66 period, the bar chart on |
| 02:46:02 | the left shows that about 57 percent of people in |
| 02:46:07 | developing countries, as estimated by the United |
| 02:46:09 | Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation, were undernourished. |
| 02:46:12 | In 1997-99, that 57% had fallen to 10%, a great result, |
| 02:46:18 | except, of course, the world's population has massively increased. |
| 02:46:23 | So there are still roughly 800 million |
| 02:46:26 | people in developing countries that remain undernourished. |
| 02:46:30 | So, as one of the earlier speakers said, we have a distribution problem. |
| 02:46:35 | And although there are significant weather-related famines, |
| 02:46:38 | the majority of undernourished people in |
| 02:46:39 | the world lack food because of poverty. |
| 02:46:42 | And the FAO advocates growth in |
| 02:46:44 | the agricultural sector for developing countries |
| 02:46:47 | as much to try and erode poverty as |
| 02:46:49 | it does because of the food it delivers. |
| 02:46:52 | So one of the big challenges will be |
| 02:46:54 | getting enough of the appropriate food to all people, |
| 02:46:56 | and trade liberalization should help this happen. |
| 02:46:59 | I think that whole liberalization issue actually |
| 02:47:01 | comes down to more efficient use of different |
| 02:47:03 | ecosystems on the planet. |
| 02:47:06 | So I won't go further than that, just to say that |
| 02:47:08 | I don't think we can look at the whole issue |
| 02:47:10 | of how much food there is on the planet without, |
| 02:47:12 | at least from a moral point of view, |
| 02:47:14 | looking at how it's distributed and who gets it. |
| 02:47:16 | To eat it, and who gets to waste it. |
| 02:47:18 | Now, demand for food is rising right now. |
| 02:47:21 | Of course it's rising. There are more and more |
| 02:47:24 | people being born than people who are dying. |
| 02:47:29 | Let's have a look at this graph here. |
| 02:47:32 | We've got 2004 consumption figures |
| 02:47:34 | in China in healthcare, transport, housing, |
| 02:47:36 | recreation, education, and food. |
| 02:47:38 | 2004 is in red. 2025 is the estimated consumption, |
| 02:47:41 | which is in blue and projected. |
| 02:47:46 | Compound annual growth in spending is large |
| 02:47:50 | in food. |
| 02:47:51 | I mean, it is big in other areas because they're |
| 02:47:53 | coming off a small base, but look at that fantastic |
| 02:47:56 | growth in demand for food. |
| 02:47:58 | As the world becomes wealthier, |
| 02:48:00 | its richer inhabitants will seek safe, healthy, |
| 02:48:02 | high-quality food, as well as health and textile |
| 02:48:04 | products derived from animals that have been |
| 02:48:07 | produced in a responsible manner. |
| 02:48:09 | It's estimated that people's incomes rise from US$2 |
| 02:48:12 | a day to US$10 a day, and roughly |
| 02:48:14 | half the world still lives on US$2 a day. |
| 02:48:17 | Once it goes from about US$2 to US$10, |
| 02:48:20 | people move off plant carbohydrates as the only source |
| 02:48:23 | of food, and they start to introduce animal fats and proteins. |
| 02:48:28 | McKinsey estimates that Chinese spending on food, |
| 02:48:30 | tobacco, and beverages will grow |
| 02:48:32 | by 6.7% annually. |
| 02:48:35 | The Chinese consumer that currently eats 20 kilograms |
| 02:48:38 | of meat a day, sorry, a year, |
| 02:48:41 | and they certainly don't all eat that much, |
| 02:48:43 | certainly not, but those that do, or sorry, those that |
| 02:48:46 | did in 1985, are now eating over 50 kilograms in 2008. |
| 02:48:50 | So you already see change in volume and change in consumption patterns. |
| 02:48:57 | So we're not only going to have three billion |
| 02:48:59 | more humans to feed, but the diet of the full |
| 02:49:01 | nine billion will change and probably increasingly favor, |
| 02:49:04 | in absolute terms, meat and milk. |
| 02:49:08 | So demand is rising, and consumption |
| 02:49:10 | patterns are changing toward more ecologically expensive food. |
| 02:49:13 | It costs more ecologically to consume |
| 02:49:16 | animal-derived products than it does plant-derived products. |
| 02:49:18 | I haven't got the ratio. |
| 02:49:20 | I mean, the ecological ratio as you go |
| 02:49:22 | between trophic levels is about 90% in efficiency |
| 02:49:25 | each jump of a trophic level, but I |
| 02:49:27 | don't think you can overall assume that with |
| 02:49:29 | animal-derived food, so I don't know what the... |
| 02:49:33 | Ecological greater price is, but it's certainly there. |
| 02:49:36 | And as demand is rising and consumption patterns |
| 02:49:38 | are changing, at the same time we started |
| 02:49:40 | using food to make fuel, which is really |
| 02:49:43 | when you're relying on fresh water for transportation, |
| 02:49:45 | because you need water to produce food. |
| 02:49:49 | This graph shows, basically, 1995 to 2015 actual and then predicted |
| 02:49:55 | ethanol production and the corresponding use of maize. |
| 02:49:58 | In the United States, |
| 02:49:59 | you're just getting a massive growth in ethanol |
| 02:50:02 | derived from maize. In the United States, |
| 02:50:05 | use of maize to make biofuel is up 37% on last year, 2008-2007, driven by |
| 02:50:10 | mandatory renewable fuel usage standards. |
| 02:50:12 | This strong demand is a major factor in |
| 02:50:15 | the predicted world cereal stocks dropping to |
| 02:50:17 | just 405 million tonnes, which would be |
| 02:50:20 | the smallest stock since 1982. |
| 02:50:22 | And the situation is incredibly serious for wheat. US wheat |
| 02:50:25 | stocks are forecast to drop to 8 million tonnes, |
| 02:50:28 | the lowest reserve or safeguard in 60 years. |
| 02:50:33 | And a change. In the last three years, |
| 02:50:38 | the previous 40-year decline in food prices, |
| 02:50:41 | three quarters in real terms that I showed you |
| 02:50:44 | earlier on, has reversed. And what we've got here |
| 02:50:48 | are corn futures prices rising 0.5, 0.6, 0.7. |
| 02:50:51 | These are forward curves for corn. By the |
| 02:50:54 | end of February 2008, world food prices had jumped |
| 02:50:58 | by 61% in the previous year and 11% in the |
| 02:51:01 | previous month, according to the Economist Price |
| 02:51:04 | Index of internationally traded foods, of which wheat, |
| 02:51:06 | coffee, soybean, and corn make up a portion. |
| 02:51:09 | Up half the weight. Grain and soya prices are |
| 02:51:11 | currently at record levels due to strong |
| 02:51:13 | demand for animal feed competing. Remember, |
| 02:51:15 | so more and more people are wanting livestock-derived foods. |
| 02:51:18 | Animal feed on the one hand and biofuels on the other. |
| 02:51:20 | So, as I said, the graph shows an index of future prices for corn. |
| 02:51:24 | Not only has the actual price of corn gone up, |
| 02:51:26 | but the predicted futures have been underestimating the actual... |
| 02:51:30 | They've all been undershot. |
| 02:51:31 | The actual rises are higher than people are even predicting. |
| 02:51:35 | Real prices are rising, and they're rising sharply. |
| 02:51:37 | So that whole pattern of 40 years of food getting cheaper and cheaper, |
| 02:51:41 | at least for those people who can, in the West |
| 02:51:44 | or in the developed countries, that's gone. |
| 02:51:48 | And there's a dawning realization of that now. |
| 02:51:51 | 40 years of behavior has reversed very quickly. |
| 02:51:55 | Well, maybe behavior hasn't reversed, |
| 02:51:56 | but 40 years of one reality has changed. |
| 02:51:59 | Food price rises are hurting the less developed countries worst. |
| 02:52:05 | What you've got here is the contribution of food prices |
| 02:52:08 | to overall headline inflation, |
| 02:52:09 | and red is over 75%, pink between 50% and 75%. |
| 02:52:14 | So food price inflation is having a massive impact on the |
| 02:52:17 | populations of the less developed parts of the world right now. |
| 02:52:23 | Biofuel might play a significant role in the world's energy future, |
| 02:52:27 | where it can be produced economically from |
| 02:52:29 | crop residues, or maybe pine trees or whatever, |
| 02:52:32 | without the need for government subsidies |
| 02:52:35 | that are currently driving uneconomic production. |
| 02:52:37 | But the huge levels of biofuel production that some are |
| 02:52:41 | calling for are unlikely to be sustainable by the biosphere. |
| 02:52:45 | The big question is, can we feed |
| 02:52:47 | and transport an additional 3 billion people, |
| 02:52:49 | I keep coming back to this, |
| 02:52:51 | without consuming more land, water, sunlight, fertilizer, |
| 02:52:53 | and without causing more extinctions? Possibly. |
| 02:52:56 | Can we do it if we all eat, say, |
| 02:52:59 | New Zealanders'consumption levels of livestock-derived foods? |
| 02:53:02 | I don't know, but you'd have to wonder when, in general, |
| 02:53:05 | plant-derived foods are ecologically less |
| 02:53:07 | expensive to produce than animal-derived foods. |
| 02:53:10 | New Zealand, I'll just dive into New Zealand. |
| 02:53:12 | I'm closing towards the end of my speech now. |
| 02:53:14 | Sustainability issues for food production in New Zealand. |
| 02:53:19 | We've got a graph of greenhouse |
| 02:53:23 | gas emissions to the atmosphere, or a chart, |
| 02:53:25 | along the top. For those who don't come from |
| 02:53:27 | New Zealand, delegates in the audience today, |
| 02:53:30 | about 49% of New Zealand's total greenhouse |
| 02:53:33 | gas emissions come from livestock. That's very unusual |
| 02:53:35 | in world terms, but we are a food-producing, |
| 02:53:37 | livestock, food-producing nation. |
| 02:53:40 | 50% of merchandise trade exports also come |
| 02:53:45 | from the pastoral sector, so it's an important sector. |
| 02:53:48 | The graph shows that impact at the top, which shows down the bottom, |
| 02:53:52 | emissions of nitrogen, phosphorus. Just take the bar charts. |
| 02:54:00 | Pale blue is if you want the indigenous ecosystems; |
| 02:54:03 | dark blue is pastoral catchments. |
| 02:54:05 | You can see, you get a lot more pollution, |
| 02:54:07 | or at least a lot more emissions of nitrogen and phosphorus |
| 02:54:10 | into the environment from pastoral farm systems. |
| 02:54:15 | These are monitored lakes. It's what ends up in our lakes in the end. |
| 02:54:18 | So there's an impact. |
| 02:54:20 | Now, a 2006 FAO report assessed the world's livestock sector. |
| 02:54:23 | That was the Livestock Long Shadow Report. |
| 02:54:25 | If you've never seen it, get hold of it and at least read the summary. |
| 02:54:28 | It makes incredible reading. |
| 02:54:30 | The world's livestock sector is defined by the FAO |
| 02:54:33 | as one of the top two or three most significant |
| 02:54:37 | contributors to the most serious environmental problems |
| 02:54:40 | at every scale, from local to global. |
| 02:54:43 | Livestock-derived foods are one of |
| 02:54:45 | the most serious environmental problems. |
| 02:54:47 | And I guess, you know, it's the old phrase, you know, |
| 02:54:50 | the world's in trouble from the |
| 02:54:52 | four Cs: cows, calves, chainsaws, and children. |
| 02:54:56 | While in New Zealand, I've made a pretty good case for that today, I think. |
| 02:55:00 | While New Zealand was described by the |
| 02:55:01 | FAO as having one of the most efficient |
| 02:55:03 | and environmentally benign ruminant livestock industries, |
| 02:55:06 | and it said that in a report. |
| 02:55:08 | We shouldn't underestimate the impact |
| 02:55:10 | of a growing environmental consciousness |
| 02:55:12 | of the cost of their production, and another |
| 02:55:14 | example over there on the bottom far right |
| 02:55:16 | is erosion in hill country North Island soil. |
| 02:55:20 | What will that impact be on overseas markets? |
| 02:55:24 | It means that New Zealand will have |
| 02:55:26 | to significantly improve its food industry's environmental performance, |
| 02:55:28 | and we will have to |
| 02:55:30 | measure that performance rigorously and objectively. |
| 02:55:32 | There is no escaping that fact. |
| 02:55:34 | There is no doubt that our agriculture |
| 02:55:37 | must do better in dealing with eutrophication due |
| 02:55:39 | to nitrogen leaching into lakes and rivers, |
| 02:55:41 | and phosphorus, as I've got down there, |
| 02:55:44 | erosion on susceptible hill country soil over on the. |
| 02:55:47 | Right, water use on irrigated land and emissions |
| 02:55:50 | of greenhouse gases to air. |
| 02:55:52 | We have to deal with these issues more significantly than we have before. |
| 02:55:57 | Scientific innovations can help complex figures here, |
| 02:56:00 | but solutions like the use of nitrification |
| 02:56:04 | inhibitors have multiple benefits. |
| 02:56:07 | Inhibitors can lead to significant |
| 02:56:09 | reductions in emissions of nitrous oxide, |
| 02:56:10 | which ultimately is derived from the |
| 02:56:13 | urine of cows. Nitrous oxide, as you |
| 02:56:15 | probably all know, is a greenhouse gas. |
| 02:56:18 | Loss of nitrates, it's nitrogen soluble |
| 02:56:20 | in water, into waterways, so you'll |
| 02:56:23 | also reduce eutrophication and improve pasture production. |
| 02:56:25 | Hence, you've also got productivity, |
| 02:56:27 | more profit for the farmer. |
| 02:56:29 | The more sophisticated New Zealand farmers are starting to use these sorts |
| 02:56:34 | of technologies and look at their farms |
| 02:56:37 | in a holistic way, as a biological system. |
| 02:56:42 | Not all farmers are doing that, |
| 02:56:43 | but certainly some are, and they're leading the way. |
| 02:56:47 | But I do acknowledge we don't know |
| 02:56:49 | if we can sustainably reduce methane emissions from livestock. |
| 02:56:53 | And the problem of methane emissions from |
| 02:56:55 | rangeland animals, the ones you put out to |
| 02:56:57 | pasture and don't see on a regular basis, |
| 02:57:00 | may be even harder to solve because you have |
| 02:57:03 | very limited opportunity to intervene in. |
| 02:57:06 | Their methane production. We have to be |
| 02:57:10 | careful how we measure ourselves in |
| 02:57:13 | the area of benchmarking, and some commonly |
| 02:57:17 | used benchmarks can be misleading. This one here is per capita ecological |
| 02:57:21 | footprint on the vertical axis, and really |
| 02:57:27 | a threshold along here of world biocapacity. |
| 02:57:33 | So anything above the dotted line, |
| 02:57:35 | the horizontal dotted line, is above world |
| 02:57:38 | capacity to sustain in the long run. |
| 02:57:41 | And New Zealand is right up there on the far, |
| 02:57:45 | that orange bar on the far right. |
| 02:57:47 | We have an ecological footprint of nearly six hectares per person. |
| 02:57:51 | The world should be down to around two human populations. |
| 02:57:56 | But we just need to be aware: |
| 02:58:00 | we feed about ten times more people than |
| 02:58:02 | actually live here and consume food in New Zealand. |
| 02:58:05 | So we're producing food for somewhere between 30 |
| 02:58:07 | and 40 million people, not the four that |
| 02:58:09 | live here. So whatever measures we use |
| 02:58:12 | to actually look at our ecological footprint, |
| 02:58:16 | they do need to take, to be cognisant of |
| 02:58:19 | the fact that food production, even if it's crop production, |
| 02:58:22 | is a messy business, and if |
| 02:58:24 | You're actually exporting food, and you're doing it |
| 02:58:27 | very efficiently, and we just need to take |
| 02:58:29 | that into account when we account for ourselves |
| 02:58:31 | to the world. |
| 02:58:35 | And finally, New Zealand has lived off the cow and the sheep's back. |
| 02:58:41 | Still does. |
| 02:58:42 | Will livestock products be economical in the |
| 02:58:45 | future if all the environmental costs are considered? |
| 02:58:47 | I don't know. |
| 02:58:50 | For that matter, will rice and the |
| 02:58:52 | methane that rice paddies produce be acceptable either? |
| 02:58:55 | I don't know. |
| 02:58:58 | The challenge in New Zealand is |
| 02:59:00 | that our landscape does not particularly encourage intensive cropping. |
| 02:59:03 | We can't just go across and say, right, |
| 02:59:04 | we're just going to plant the right foods, |
| 02:59:06 | export those, and that's going to |
| 02:59:08 | take care of our standard of living. |
| 02:59:10 | That's going to be hard, given our landscape and |
| 02:59:13 | the way it is mountainous or undulating. |
| 02:59:16 | Planting trees doesn't necessarily provide an ongoing cash flow. |
| 02:59:18 | I'd be interested to see if the |
| 02:59:20 | global emissions trading scheme can do that, but if |
| 02:59:23 | it doesn't, you can put a lot of trees |
| 02:59:25 | in the ground and then wait a long time before you get any money back, |
| 02:59:29 | and whether we like it or not, many humans |
| 02:59:31 | Enjoy meat and milk, as some of this data |
| 02:59:33 | has shown, and there are some |
| 02:59:36 | nutritional benefits of consuming those foods, |
| 02:59:38 | but I know that's a debatable point. |
| 02:59:40 | New Zealand is well positioned to |
| 02:59:42 | serve the market for livestock-derived foods, |
| 02:59:44 | but without question, we need to |
| 02:59:46 | reduce the ecological footprint of |
| 02:59:48 | our food production. Absolutely, that means... |
| 02:59:50 | More that means less pollution and relatively a relative reduction, |
| 02:59:55 | that means more production of food per hectare, greater efficiency, |
| 02:59:59 | smaller environmental footprint. Finally, will all |
| 03:00:02 | our efforts here in Aotearoa keep |
| 03:00:05 | Gaia in its current equilibrium? No. Anything we do in Aotearoa and New |
| 03:00:11 | Zealand is not really going to have a massive impact on Gaia, but it is |
| 03:00:16 | essential that we make our contribution, |
| 03:00:18 | because I think this is a moral issue |
| 03:00:21 | for all of humanity and reducing. |
| 03:00:23 | The ecological footprint of food production |
| 03:00:25 | is one essential part of that, and it can |
| 03:00:28 | be an area where we can lead the world. |
| 03:00:30 | Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. |
| 03:00:31 | We're only a little behind time now, |
| 03:00:39 | but the last session before afternoon tea break |
| 03:00:47 | asks the question, is your home |
| 03:00:52 | a climate-friendly fortress or an eco-friendly, sorry, |
| 03:00:56 | a climate-hostile fortress or an eco-friendly castle? |
| 03:01:00 | Houses use 30% of New Zealand's electricity, |
| 03:01:03 | but many are still uncomfortable and unhealthy. |
| 03:01:06 | Better solutions are available now. |
| 03:01:09 | To tell us about that, |
| 03:01:11 | please welcome Nick Collins, General Manager, Beacon Pathway. |
| 03:01:22 | Thank you, Noel. |
| 03:01:23 | Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for the invitation to present to you today, |
| 03:01:27 | and my congratulations to the organising committee |
| 03:01:30 | and for the fine array of speakers, journalists, |
| 03:01:34 | scientists, and business people who have presented today, |
| 03:01:38 | because those speakers have done for me a grand job. |
| 03:01:41 | In setting the context of the challenge of our housing, |
| 03:01:44 | and if we are marking the awakening |
| 03:01:47 | of the responsibility of the individual today, |
| 03:01:50 | then I would suggest to you, as we all live in homes and neighbourhoods, |
| 03:01:55 | that this is a great place for you all to start. |
| 03:01:59 | I've chosen to start with a quotation from Buckminster Fuller. |
| 03:02:11 | It's highly feasible to take care of all |
| 03:02:14 | humanity at a higher standard of living than anybody |
| 03:02:18 | has ever experienced or dreamt of. |
| 03:02:21 | To do so without having anybody profit at the expense of another, |
| 03:02:26 | so that everybody can enjoy the whole earth. |
| 03:02:31 | A noble sentiment, strongly expressed, and perhaps spoiled only by the fact |
| 03:02:36 | that the person who uttered those words concluded by saying |
| 03:02:41 | it could all be done by 1985. |
| 03:02:45 | It's also worth noting here that Fuller was renowned for delivering |
| 03:02:49 | extremely long lectures, 42 hours being the record. |
| 03:02:55 | Fortunately, the audience has only 20 minutes of |
| 03:02:58 | mine today, and I'll try to get through |
| 03:03:00 | that as quickly as possible. |
| 03:03:02 | The jury's still out on whether Fuller was |
| 03:03:05 | a hopelessly utopian or simply ahead of his time. |
| 03:03:08 | The second half of the quote I have just |
| 03:03:10 | given you might lead you to pitch for the utopian label, |
| 03:03:13 | but I would like to concentrate on the first part. |
| 03:03:16 | It's highly feasible to take care of all humanity at a higher |
| 03:03:20 | standard of living than anybody has ever experienced or dreamt of. |
| 03:03:24 | And if you were looking at an expression of the underlying philosophy of |
| 03:03:28 | the organization I work for, Beacon Pathway, |
| 03:03:30 | that would serve as well as anything. |
| 03:03:33 | Beacon Pathway is a research organization working to find affordable, |
| 03:03:38 | attractive ways to make New Zealand's homes more sustainable, warmer, |
| 03:03:43 | healthier, cheaper to run, and kinder on the environment. |
| 03:03:49 | We want to create homes and neighborhoods that work well into the future |
| 03:03:53 | and don't cost the earth. |
| 03:03:58 | We've heard a lot today about the change in climate. |
| 03:04:01 | My thanks to the Herald for those images that relate to July last year. |
| 03:04:08 | And Kaio is the town that's underwater yet again. |
| 03:04:12 | The title of this address is "Climate Fortress or Eco-Friendly Castle." |
| 03:04:17 | At Beacon Pathway, we believe the answer to this question is a simple one. |
| 03:04:23 | Climate change is here. It's real. |
| 03:04:25 | We've heard about it today. It's happening. |
| 03:04:27 | Some may wish to debate man's contribution to the process. |
| 03:04:31 | To my mind, that is a luxury afforded only now to philosophers. |
| 03:04:35 | As builders, designers, and manufacturers, our job is to |
| 03:04:38 | find solutions and not to quarrel over the causes. |
| 03:04:42 | Resource availability is another issue we must come |
| 03:04:45 | to grips with, and yes, Fuller said there |
| 03:04:48 | is enough to go around, but if we |
| 03:04:51 | want these resources—land, clean air, water, |
| 03:04:54 | and so on—to continue to be right for years to come, we need to think about |
| 03:05:00 | How we allocate them and about using |
| 03:05:04 | them as smartly, efficiently, and effectively as possible. |
| 03:05:07 | The answer, then, is that a climate fortress is no longer an option. |
| 03:05:12 | Like Canute attempting to turn back the tide, |
| 03:05:16 | any fortress we construct is likely to be |
| 03:05:19 | overrun by the forces that are rapidly changing. |
| 03:05:22 | The eco-friendly castle, however, is a real, valid option. |
| 03:05:28 | What's more, it's an option we are in a position to implement. |
| 03:05:32 | Indeed, at Beacon Pathway, we've already begun |
| 03:05:35 | to implement it through our Now Home programme. |
| 03:05:38 | More of that later. |
| 03:05:39 | As an organization, Beacon's focused on |
| 03:05:42 | the homes of ordinary New Zealanders. |
| 03:05:47 | As a country, we need to deal with a |
| 03:05:49 | significant number of issues that we've heard about today, |
| 03:05:51 | but housing stock is a key one. |
| 03:05:55 | And in addition to the environmental changes |
| 03:05:57 | with which we're faced, our homes are cold. |
| 03:06:00 | And by cold, I mean they're on average in the winter |
| 03:06:03 | six degrees below World Health Organization accepted levels. |
| 03:06:09 | Our homes are damp. About 45% of our homes exhibit some mold. |
| 03:06:16 | They're hard to heat. Many of them are poorly insulated. |
| 03:06:19 | A large number are actually not insulated at all. |
| 03:06:22 | A significant number of our homes use unvented gas heaters |
| 03:06:26 | as the main source of heating. |
| 03:06:28 | Now, unflued gas heaters are banned in most of the developed world. |
| 03:06:33 | We have joint standards with Australia where they're banned, |
| 03:06:36 | but for some reason it's been accepted here that |
| 03:06:37 | it's all right to have them in New Zealand. |
| 03:06:41 | In fact, we've got 1.6 million homes. |
| 03:06:44 | One million of our homes, we estimate, lack adequate levels of insulation. |
| 03:06:51 | So, about one million of our homes would fail the current building code. |
| 03:06:54 | More than a million of them would fail the current building code. |
| 03:06:57 | And we would contest, that is, |
| 03:07:00 | Beacon Pathway, that the current code performance |
| 03:07:03 | around thermal performance won't get our homes |
| 03:07:07 | up to World Health Organization recommended levels. |
| 03:07:12 | So we have a challenge. |
| 03:07:14 | But the good news is that addressing these problems |
| 03:07:20 | brings considerable collective benefits, |
| 03:07:22 | both economic, health, and environmental. |
| 03:07:25 | And I suppose the key optimistic point here is |
| 03:07:31 | it can be done, and it can be done now. |
| 03:07:34 | The home you see in the photo is the first of the new homes |
| 03:07:38 | that we built in Waitakere City. |
| 03:07:40 | This home has been tenanted for a period of two years. |
| 03:07:44 | It's a building scientist's sandpit. They've measured everything. |
| 03:07:48 | There are sensors in the floor and the walls. |
| 03:07:50 | They measure every one of the electrical circuits |
| 03:07:53 | and all of the water circuits. |
| 03:07:55 | Now, this home uses on average about 33% less energy than an |
| 03:07:59 | average new home in West Auckland, and it uses about 40% less water. |
| 03:08:05 | And this is not rocket science; |
| 03:08:07 | this is technology that's currently available today. |
| 03:08:10 | So this was our first live research project, |
| 03:08:15 | designed using current concepts, materials, |
| 03:08:17 | and products that are readily available. |
| 03:08:20 | It just relies on simple, good, |
| 03:08:23 | old-fashioned principles of good passive solar |
| 03:08:26 | design to maximize the uptake of the sun, to provide for |
| 03:08:32 | summer cooling through soffits and the like, technology to reduce energy |
| 03:08:39 | and water use, and it provides |
| 03:08:42 | a healthy, dry, warm indoor environment. |
| 03:08:45 | We're now taking the learning from this and |
| 03:08:48 | our second home in Rotorua, and we're embarking |
| 03:08:50 | on a project with industry to build |
| 03:08:54 | 100 such homes, encouraging developers and builders to |
| 03:08:57 | take on board the learning that comes. |
| 03:09:00 | Out of these two projects, to build much more |
| 03:09:03 | sustainable homes throughout the country. |
| 03:09:07 | And as one of the earlier speakers |
| 03:09:10 | alluded to our regulations, we don't believe that |
| 03:09:13 | we will get regulatory change quickly in New Zealand. |
| 03:09:17 | And so we have to provide de facto |
| 03:09:20 | standards to industry to lift their game quickly and |
| 03:09:23 | to pick up on the opportunities that are there. |
| 03:09:27 | And these opportunities, it's not about |
| 03:09:30 | space-age technology, and they're not impractical |
| 03:09:33 | concept houses. This is a standard three-bedroom New Zealand home. |
| 03:09:37 | They contain only the technology that |
| 03:09:40 | is readily available and affordable anywhere in New Zealand. |
| 03:09:42 | In fact, a few of them involve sort of going back to the future, |
| 03:09:52 | and by that I mean innovations as |
| 03:09:54 | basic as facing the house towards the sun, |
| 03:09:57 | and we seem to have kind of lost how to do that. |
| 03:10:02 | So if we want to have |
| 03:10:05 | eco-friendly castles and not environmental fortresses, |
| 03:10:07 | it's important that we design them with the |
| 03:10:10 | local ecology at the front of our minds, |
| 03:10:13 | rather than focusing on the glossy. |
| 03:10:16 | Images from overseas magazines and the like. |
| 03:10:22 | Beacon's recognized that to accurately |
| 03:10:24 | interpret the results of our projects, |
| 03:10:27 | we need a set of performance standards. |
| 03:10:30 | And this is what I was talking about when I mentioned de facto standards. |
| 03:10:34 | So, through our research and from the |
| 03:10:37 | data coming from projects like the Now Homes, |
| 03:10:39 | we have developed what we have |
| 03:10:42 | specified as a high standard of sustainability. |
| 03:10:44 | And this goes beyond energy efficiency; it focuses on |
| 03:10:49 | water use in the house, the indoor environment quality, |
| 03:10:53 | the temperature, the humidity, and the materials used and the waste |
| 03:10:58 | that are generated through the construction of that home. |
| 03:11:03 | And inherent in this are the |
| 03:11:06 | underlying principles of affordability and future flexibility. |
| 03:11:11 | My organization has an ambitious goal. |
| 03:11:15 | We are setting out to bring 90% of |
| 03:11:17 | New Zealand houses to a high standard of sustainability. |
| 03:11:22 | The original aim was to do that by 2012. |
| 03:11:25 | And a seemingly unachievable goal, but it's out there for the team to |
| 03:11:30 | remind them that we aren't going to get there with business as usual. |
| 03:11:35 | We have to find different ways of doing things. |
| 03:11:37 | And the biggest challenge is our existing housing stock. |
| 03:11:42 | The good news is that we've got the technology to do it. |
| 03:11:47 | The current building solutions for our |
| 03:11:51 | existing homes provide us with the opportunity |
| 03:11:54 | to considerably improve the performance of our houses. |
| 03:11:58 | The photos you see there relate to |
| 03:12:01 | a project we have in Papakowhai in Porirua, |
| 03:12:03 | which is taking nine existing homes, monitoring the energy and water use, |
| 03:12:07 | the indoor environment quality for a period of about eight months, and then |
| 03:12:11 | going through some fairly significant |
| 03:12:14 | Renovations to improve the performance |
| 03:12:17 | and the living environment in the home, |
| 03:12:21 | and as with the new home opportunity, |
| 03:12:25 | we have a problem. We've taken the |
| 03:12:31 | learning from our initial project, and we're |
| 03:12:37 | embarking with community groups and |
| 03:12:40 | With development companies to renovate a |
| 03:12:44 | thousand homes throughout the country to a high |
| 03:12:47 | standard of sustainability, and I'll just give you |
| 03:12:50 | some idea of the sort of solutions we |
| 03:12:55 | are talking about and what we're doing, and first, |
| 03:13:01 | Foremost, to develop our eco-friendly castles, |
| 03:13:06 | insulation is number one opportunity. |
| 03:13:11 | And Rod mentioned earlier that not insulating your houses |
| 03:13:13 | is like leaving a hundred-dollar bills on the pavement. |
| 03:13:16 | I thought that was a superb introduction |
| 03:13:19 | to the fact that this is the simplest and |
| 03:13:23 | most cost-effective opportunity that we have. |
| 03:13:26 | And it's not a bad investment on financial grounds, |
| 03:13:30 | given that the rate of return |
| 03:13:33 | is actually guaranteed and will improve over time. |
| 03:13:35 | And that's not something our financial |
| 03:13:37 | institutions can offer us, in the current |
| 03:13:40 | climate anyway. However, the total economic |
| 03:13:43 | benefit is greater still. Insulated homes |
| 03:13:46 | are healthier homes. Their inhabitants have fewer |
| 03:13:48 | days off work, less sickness, and lower medical bills. |
| 03:13:52 | These factors have a public as well as |
| 03:13:54 | a private benefit. A healthy workforce is a productive workforce. |
| 03:13:57 | Space heating is another area with |
| 03:14:00 | considerable room for improvement. Both heat pumps |
| 03:14:03 | and wood pellet burners deliver significantly better |
| 03:14:07 | performance than conventional gas and electric heaters, |
| 03:14:10 | let alone the much-loved but |
| 03:14:13 | hopelessly inefficient open fires. Increased efficiency |
| 03:14:17 | means reduced energy demands, lower bills for householders, |
| 03:14:20 | and, on a national scale, |
| 03:14:23 | an improved use of scarce generation resources that |
| 03:14:25 | we've already heard a lot about today. |
| 03:14:28 | Likewise, solar water heating and instant |
| 03:14:31 | gas water heating provide much, much more |
| 03:14:34 | effective ways to heat water than electricity. |
| 03:14:39 | The technology behind energy-efficient lighting |
| 03:14:42 | and appliances is developing rapidly, |
| 03:14:44 | and we need to ensure in our households that |
| 03:14:46 | we keep abreast of what the market has to offer. |
| 03:14:49 | Making the best use of water is another key strand of activity for us. |
| 03:14:58 | For those of you who don't come from Auckland, |
| 03:15:01 | you'll be interested to know that about seven to ten times the |
| 03:15:05 | amount of water needed in Auckland falls by way of rain, |
| 03:15:09 | and we don't use it in our homes at all. |
| 03:15:13 | In fact, the utility companies actively discourage the use of rainwater. |
| 03:15:18 | A reduction in overall water demand could save households money. |
| 03:15:24 | In Auckland, the cost of reticulated water into our homes |
| 03:15:26 | is about the same as the cost of space heating, |
| 03:15:30 | and it's going up much quicker, much more rapidly than the price of energy. |
| 03:15:36 | So we can reduce the need for costly infrastructure |
| 03:15:39 | upgrades and lessen the environmental impacts of water use. |
| 03:15:42 | The technologies to reduce water demand, |
| 03:15:45 | as in the way I explained about energy efficiency, |
| 03:15:49 | are proven, cost-effective, and available now. |
| 03:15:53 | Studies from both New Zealand and Australia show that |
| 03:15:56 | using a variety of water management strategies, such as |
| 03:15:59 | collecting rainwater, which is pretty |
| 03:16:01 | simple basic technology, reusing greywater, |
| 03:16:04 | dual-flush toilets, and low-flow showers, can significantly |
| 03:16:07 | Reduce the demand on mains water supply. |
| 03:16:11 | An urban rainwater tank is particularly effective, and it |
| 03:16:14 | can supply most of the water required for a home. |
| 03:16:21 | Waste reduction, both in construction and throughout the life of the house, |
| 03:16:24 | is something else we can easily improve |
| 03:16:28 | by simply adopting current best practices in the industry. |
| 03:16:32 | The amount of waste created during the |
| 03:16:34 | construction of the new home in Waitakere, |
| 03:16:37 | which was the photo I showed you earlier, was about 60% below average. |
| 03:16:42 | And it's just a simple matter of using standard sizes of materials, |
| 03:16:46 | collecting the waste, and reusing it wherever possible. |
| 03:16:48 | Again, drawing on an inspiration of |
| 03:16:51 | local resource availability, rather than trying |
| 03:16:54 | to shoehorn in imported design models, is the way to move forward. |
| 03:17:05 | And of course, our eco-friendly castles do not exist in splendid isolation. |
| 03:17:11 | We need to ask and answer questions relating to where we build, |
| 03:17:15 | our relationship to our neighbors, |
| 03:17:17 | and to existing infrastructure and services. |
| 03:17:19 | The photo I have up there now is courtesy of Metro, |
| 03:17:23 | and the scientists will no doubt tell me that it's extreme. |
| 03:17:27 | However, it drives a message that 85% of |
| 03:17:31 | New Zealanders live in cities, and most of |
| 03:17:35 | our cities are on the coast or on |
| 03:17:38 | the floodplains of rivers, or in some cases both. |
| 03:17:43 | Is this a sustainable future for New Zealand? |
| 03:17:45 | I began with a quote from a well-known architect, designer, and thinker. |
| 03:17:51 | I'd like to finish with another quote, this one from Molly Beattie. |
| 03:17:55 | Molly Beattie was the first woman to head the U.S. |
| 03:17:58 | Fish and Wildlife Service, and she said, |
| 03:18:01 | "In the long term, the economy and the environment are the same thing." |
| 03:18:05 | If it's unenvironmental, it's uneconomical. That is the rule of nature. |
| 03:18:10 | Or, in the context of today's discussion, |
| 03:18:13 | our concern should not be to save the planet. As we've heard before, |
| 03:18:18 | the planet existed well before us, and it will survive after us. |
| 03:18:22 | Our concern must be to save |
| 03:18:24 | ourselves, and our homes, and our neighbourhoods. |
| 03:18:27 | I would suggest to you, this is the best place to start. Thank you. |
| 03:18:30 | Dr. John Peat is retired after a long career in environmental engineering, |
| 03:18:41 | and he still has continuing involvement in that field. |
| 03:18:44 | He will address us on the theme of |
| 03:18:47 | his book, *Energy, Ecology, and Economics of Sustainability*. |
| 03:18:51 | I hope I've got that title quite right. John Peat. |
| 03:19:02 | Ngā mihi nui ki a koutou, kia ora tātou katoa. |
| 03:19:05 | Greetings to you all, especially Swami Jī, |
| 03:19:07 | Honourable Guests, and Ladies and Gentlemen. |
| 03:19:12 | I want to make a few comments about the issue, |
| 03:19:15 | and I want to start out 110 years ago, |
| 03:19:19 | which is when a Swedish scientist called Svante Arrhenius actually |
| 03:19:23 | predicted climate change, human-induced climate change, |
| 03:19:28 | in 1898, in the philosophical transactions of the Royal Society. |
| 03:19:32 | If you want to look it up, I |
| 03:19:35 | have 110 years. It's been coming in New Zealand. |
| 03:19:38 | Active work on it has been going for more than 20 years. |
| 03:19:43 | Bit of a surprise, wasn't it, when we suddenly learned |
| 03:19:47 | when Al Gore came and we suddenly discovered human-induced climate change? |
| 03:19:52 | We should have been ready for it. |
| 03:19:54 | The carbon tax, the former carbon tax, was first |
| 03:19:58 | suggested and put in place by Simon Upton. |
| 03:20:03 | Remember him? Quite a while ago. It's been coming. |
| 03:20:08 | One might suggest that New Zealanders, or at least the government, |
| 03:20:12 | are a bit slow, if not a bit dim. |
| 03:20:16 | And the ability to ignore, or indeed to deny, upcoming problems |
| 03:20:23 | is actually something that I'm deeply concerned about. |
| 03:20:27 | I'll make an immediate politically biased statement. |
| 03:20:32 | No, not necessarily politically biased, |
| 03:20:34 | but shall we say, an ideologically biased statement, |
| 03:20:36 | and saying that I believe |
| 03:20:39 | that the economic theories which are currently |
| 03:20:41 | dominant and have been for the last 20 years or... |
| 03:20:44 | So at least we are indeed at the center of it. |
| 03:20:46 | Because of the core, one of the core axioms of this economic theory, |
| 03:20:51 | and anybody who remembers, if you're old |
| 03:20:53 | enough to remember Roger Douglas and Ruth Richardson, |
| 03:20:55 | will know that at the core of it is |
| 03:21:00 | the idea of an interminably |
| 03:21:02 | And perpetually insatiable, individualistic consumer |
| 03:21:04 | who can never have enough. |
| 03:21:06 | In other words, greed is the problem of what we're talking about. |
| 03:21:12 | Insatiable greed, if it goes along with increasing population, |
| 03:21:19 | The expectation of increasing and improving the standard of living, |
| 03:21:22 | physical standards of living, and so forth, |
| 03:21:25 | all on a finite earth, can only be achieved one way. |
| 03:21:30 | And that's the way, that is the center of an awful lot of policymaking |
| 03:21:34 | or policy rhetoric in the climate change, |
| 03:21:37 | and indeed the total sustainability, debate. |
| 03:21:41 | The answer, of course, is technology. |
| 03:21:43 | Now, as far as I know, I'm the only technologist on this panel of speakers. |
| 03:21:48 | I'm a professional engineer and have been so for nearly half a century, |
| 03:21:51 | working predominantly in the area of sustainability and energy. |
| 03:21:56 | I have to say, I'm sorry, we do not have the answers. |
| 03:22:00 | If you've ever seen a Star Trek film and |
| 03:22:04 | realized that in the 25th century, I think it is, |
| 03:22:08 | then the spaceships can go forever on a minimal amount of fuel, |
| 03:22:14 | and you don't need to build stairs or lifts in buildings |
| 03:22:17 | because you can just say, "Beam me up, Scotty,"and so forth. |
| 03:22:19 | That seems to be the science that is behind an awful |
| 03:22:22 | lot of the arm-waving about technology that is going on. |
| 03:22:25 | And I have to say, I'm sorry, technology can do a |
| 03:22:28 | great deal, has done a great deal, and will continue to, |
| 03:22:31 | but it doesn't have the answers to exponentially growing populations, |
| 03:22:34 | exponentially increasing greed, and so forth, on a finite Earth. |
| 03:22:39 | It won't happen. |
| 03:22:41 | As Andy West pointed out, Gaia, |
| 03:22:43 | Mother Nature, Papatūānuku, whatever you like to call her, |
| 03:22:47 | she is about to kick back. |
| 03:22:49 | In many parts of the Earth, she is hitting humanity already. |
| 03:22:52 | We are very fortunate she hasn't hit us yet. |
| 03:22:54 | But basically, Gaia will fight back. |
| 03:22:59 | There's an answer to this, which includes technology, |
| 03:23:02 | but it's something rather different from what is being talked about. |
| 03:23:05 | But it is actually pointed at by what we've been talking about anyway. |
| 03:23:10 | And that is, in the context of climate change, |
| 03:23:12 | we have to reduce our carbon budget. |
| 03:23:15 | Very simply, we have to take less carbon out of the soil |
| 03:23:19 | and put less into the atmosphere, the water, and so forth. |
| 03:23:25 | In other words, we have to accept there is a constraint |
| 03:23:27 | on our use of the physical resources of the planet. |
| 03:23:32 | Technology is supposed to hold the answer? Well, it may do. |
| 03:23:35 | But the fundamental requirement is not that technology. |
| 03:23:38 | It is the constraint. We have to live |
| 03:23:41 | within a carbon budget. As another speaker pointed out, |
| 03:23:44 | we also really have to watch water. |
| 03:23:46 | So perhaps we should be setting ourselves a water budget, |
| 03:23:49 | not only in terms of inputs to our |
| 03:23:51 | social systems, but in outputs in terms of waste. |
| 03:23:54 | And what about nitrogen, phosphorus, and so on |
| 03:23:57 | and so forth? If we actually take these seriously, |
| 03:24:00 | the requirements for the health of |
| 03:24:04 | Mother Nature, Gaia, Papatūānuku, then these requirements |
| 03:24:07 | are all physical. She doesn't care what the economy is doing. |
| 03:24:12 | She doesn't care about our psychological |
| 03:24:15 | or other life satisfaction, much as we would like her to. |
| 03:24:20 | What she cares about is how we |
| 03:24:23 | are behaving as stewards of an inherited wealth of |
| 03:24:27 | nature on planet Earth, and if we are abusing |
| 03:24:31 | that role as stewards, then we are in potential trouble. |
| 03:24:35 | So the point I'm needing to make |
| 03:24:37 | is that in order to move towards |
| 03:24:41 | climate change policy, sustainability policy in general, |
| 03:24:45 | the key issue for New Zealand and for the |
| 03:24:49 | world is to accept a budget of physical resources. |
| 03:24:52 | As inputs and as outputs. |
| 03:24:55 | And remember, some outputs, in particular |
| 03:24:57 | of the economic system, are particularly toxic. |
| 03:24:59 | I'm a chemical engineer. I used to make the jolly stuff. |
| 03:25:03 | I know we have to stop doing it. |
| 03:25:08 | These ideas were actually first published about one |
| 03:25:11 | and a half centuries ago by John Stuart Mill. |
| 03:25:16 | They were the ideas of a steady-state economy. |
| 03:25:18 | It wasn't a steady state in terms of humanities, |
| 03:25:22 | learning, wisdom, culture, spirituality, or anything like that. |
| 03:25:27 | But it was a steady state in terms of taking |
| 03:25:30 | only what we need, which is available as a sustainable harvest, |
| 03:25:34 | only taking non-renewables to the extent |
| 03:25:37 | that they can be handled by the system, |
| 03:25:40 | and aiming to replace them with renewables. |
| 03:25:44 | As soon as possible, and generally being satisfied |
| 03:25:48 | with the physical budget of resources |
| 03:25:51 | that are available long-term from the planet. |
| 03:25:56 | What we do with that depends upon the |
| 03:25:59 | richness and the creativity of our technology, |
| 03:26:02 | but perhaps more importantly, it depends upon our ability |
| 03:26:05 | as humans to move into a new stage |
| 03:26:08 | of development. Instead of being the grabbers, |
| 03:26:11 | which is one stage beyond the hunters and |
| 03:26:14 | gatherers and the agriculturalists, instead of |
| 03:26:17 | the grabbers of everything and those who |
| 03:26:20 | want growth at all costs, we might actually move. |
| 03:26:25 | Into a mode of life that uses the dreadful |
| 03:26:29 | F word, which we don't hear much of nowadays, |
| 03:26:32 | but it's a word that I think is something |
| 03:26:35 | that we ought to be, and many of |
| 03:26:37 | us are already taking seriously. It is called frugality, |
| 03:26:40 | a decent frugality, where we have to |
| 03:26:44 | take Gandhiji's famous statement of half a century ago, |
| 03:26:48 | that the world contains enough for |
| 03:26:51 | everyone's needs, but not for everyone's greeds. |
| 03:26:54 | And that is the sort of guidance that I think |
| 03:26:57 | we ought to be listening to, and what we |
| 03:26:59 | actively need to be working towards. |
| 03:27:02 | There are organizations that are always already |
| 03:27:05 | pushing this, but the response of the system |
| 03:27:08 | is always, or always seems to be, well, |
| 03:27:11 | it might be rather difficult to do that, and people, well, |
| 03:27:14 | we're only six months away from an election. |
| 03:27:16 | And people just won't take it. |
| 03:27:18 | And frankly, the reality is that most people have been |
| 03:27:21 | programmed over the last half century to |
| 03:27:24 | expect more, and therefore the political party that |
| 03:27:27 | offers them more, in terms of tax cuts |
| 03:27:30 | or whatever, will almost certainly get a better number. |
| 03:27:33 | Of votes than those who say, "Well, hang on, guys, |
| 03:27:36 | we ought to be a bit more careful." |
| 03:27:39 | But I want to suggest that maybe that's the way we ought to do it. |
| 03:27:42 | Having said that, I believe, as a technologist, |
| 03:27:44 | that there are a number of points that we |
| 03:27:47 | need to take very, very seriously, and we as engineers certainly are. |
| 03:27:51 | But one of these is actually to look carefully |
| 03:27:54 | at new technologies and not line them up as |
| 03:27:56 | the government has done and say, "These are |
| 03:27:58 | the ways we're going to address the issue." |
| 03:28:01 | Most new technologies, most technologies on |
| 03:28:04 | a large scale, have significant side effects, |
| 03:28:07 | and this is something that is seldom taken into account. |
| 03:28:12 | The biofuels, the enormous biofuels diesel component |
| 03:28:15 | of the projections of the New Zealand |
| 03:28:19 | energy policy, are frankly not worth the paper |
| 03:28:22 | they're written on, because biofuels production, |
| 03:28:26 | as currently conceived, takes far too much away from good, arable land. |
| 03:28:31 | And until we learn to make biofuels from sewage, |
| 03:28:34 | which is possible within 20 or 30 years but certainly not tomorrow, |
| 03:28:38 | or from trees, which is unlikely |
| 03:28:41 | other than in the form of alcohols, until we learn to do that, |
| 03:28:46 | then biofuels will be a small but useful substitute. |
| 03:28:50 | And probably nothing much more. There are delusions |
| 03:28:53 | in many areas of policy making and pronouncements by a number of people. |
| 03:28:59 | Hydrogen is another one. |
| 03:29:01 | Hydrogen may be useful in about 20 or 30 or 40 years. |
| 03:29:05 | But the main method of making hydrogen is fossil fuels. |
| 03:29:08 | For goodness'sake, nobody suggests... |
| 03:29:10 | Should we use fossil fuels in order to make hydrogen |
| 03:29:12 | in order to replace fossil fuels? |
| 03:29:14 | Oh, well, because electricity is the other one. |
| 03:29:15 | That's a really clean way of doing it. Electricity? What electricity? |
| 03:29:20 | We don't have enough electricity at the moment. |
| 03:29:23 | Do we have enough spare to generate enough hydrogen to power... |
| 03:29:26 | There are key technical and scientific issues involved here. |
| 03:29:33 | One of the most important things in relation to energy policy, |
| 03:29:36 | which is at the core of climate change policy, |
| 03:29:38 | is, and it was put very nicely a generation or more |
| 03:29:42 | ago by a key researcher, a friend of mine, it takes energy to get energy. |
| 03:29:48 | You have to invest energy, as well as money, quite separately. |
| 03:29:51 | This is physics and geology. You have to invest energy to get energy. |
| 03:29:57 | Now, the first oil wells were near the surface, |
| 03:30:01 | and by putting in about one unit of energy, you get 100 out. |
| 03:30:05 | That's a brilliant, absolutely marvelous return. |
| 03:30:09 | The Middle East oil fields and so forth, |
| 03:30:10 | they've run on like that for nearly a century. |
| 03:30:14 | The latest oil fields that are being opened up are between 10 and 20 to 1. |
| 03:30:19 | Still a pretty good return, but nowhere near as good, |
| 03:30:22 | and the costs of the situation, |
| 03:30:26 | the extraction plants and the refineries, are going up. |
| 03:30:32 | What about tar sands and so forth? |
| 03:30:34 | Well, as a chemical engineer, I can tell you, |
| 03:30:37 | tar sands have at best a three-to-one return on investment. |
| 03:30:41 | And the only way they're even |
| 03:30:43 | half-pie economical is because the Canadian government, |
| 03:30:45 | state governments in particular, are subsidizing them enormously, |
| 03:30:47 | which is the same thing as biofuels in the United States, |
| 03:30:52 | where George Bush's government has |
| 03:30:54 | Enormously subsidized corn production for ethanol, |
| 03:30:57 | with the result that Mexican peasants are starving, |
| 03:31:00 | not a very good thing to do. And the final point there is that peak oil, |
| 03:31:06 | which has been mentioned once this afternoon, is coming. |
| 03:31:09 | This is because most of the easily accessible, cheap oil has been used up. |
| 03:31:18 | There are vast amounts of oil left in the world, |
| 03:31:21 | but it is less accessible and more |
| 03:31:24 | expensive in both energy and economic terms. |
| 03:31:26 | And also, a second point, which is not commonly understood, |
| 03:31:28 | is that most of it is of lower quality. |
| 03:31:32 | And a lot of this oil cannot be refined in today's refineries. |
| 03:31:36 | We're going to have to build new ones. |
| 03:31:38 | The price of petrol, which is now up about $1.70, $1.80, and so |
| 03:31:44 | forth—anybody who thinks it's going to come down for |
| 03:31:46 | other than a short time, as blips, is dreaming. |
| 03:31:49 | Petrol and all other oil fuels are set for continuous uplifting, |
| 03:31:54 | and it is the end of cheap oil, |
| 03:31:55 | not the end of oil, that we're talking about. |
| 03:32:00 | With all these together, I think, in terms |
| 03:32:02 | of climate policy coming from government, business, or whatever, |
| 03:32:06 | we actually have to be very careful about producing a plan B. |
| 03:32:10 | If all the ideas work fine, if not, the precautionary principle tells us |
| 03:32:16 | we have to start envisioning a new world |
| 03:32:18 | in which we have transition communities |
| 03:32:22 | working towards a different economics |
| 03:32:24 | based on morality rather than self-interested ethics. Kia ora. |
| 03:32:28 | We're on a tight timetable between now and the end of the conference. |
| 03:32:50 | You heard me ring a little bell there. |
| 03:32:51 | Speakers should be aware that that says they have one minute remaining. |
| 03:32:55 | We need to keep that very tight. |
| 03:32:56 | We now move from practical considerations to spiritual, |
| 03:32:59 | and the first of two speakers |
| 03:33:02 | to address that is the priest associate |
| 03:33:04 | of Wellington's Anglican Cathedral, Dr. Raymond Pelley. |
| 03:33:07 | He will address us on politics, religion, and climate change, Dr. Pelley. |
| 03:33:12 | Greetings, everybody. Kia ora, hui tātou, especially to Swamiji and all |
| 03:33:25 | of you who have persisted through today with this fascinating conference. |
| 03:33:39 | I don't know if you've got good enough eyesight to read the caption there, |
| 03:33:46 | but it says, "Ah, hell, come on, we had tumble dryers, air conditioning, |
| 03:33:51 | cheap flights, big cars, free plastic toys with our breakfast cereal." |
| 03:33:55 | I say it was worth it, and that's one of these cities |
| 03:34:01 | which are gradually sinking under the water. |
| 03:34:06 | What I want to do is just explore a little bit |
| 03:34:10 | some of the ethical and spiritual issues |
| 03:34:13 | which surface and resurface in all the |
| 03:34:17 | pragmatic considerations that we've been legitimately looking at. |
| 03:34:22 | So, first of all, I want to say something about religion |
| 03:34:28 | and what this might mean in the area that we're talking about. |
| 03:34:37 | First of all, some definitions. |
| 03:34:38 | If we're going to talk about God, or some circumlocution |
| 03:34:43 | like the reality to which all other realities are relative, |
| 03:34:49 | I want to say that God is pure self-giving, pure creativity, |
| 03:34:54 | the best model we have for what life is all about. |
| 03:34:59 | And if that drops out of the picture, we start to sort |
| 03:35:04 | of grope around for a definition of what life is all about, |
| 03:35:07 | but there's one that we can get into. |
| 03:35:11 | The next one is in this picture: who are we? |
| 03:35:19 | We keep using this word "we."Who are we? |
| 03:35:22 | So I've got a couple of definitions of this little elusive word, "we." |
| 03:35:28 | One, a global definition, if you like: we are humankind |
| 03:35:32 | fighting for our survival on a threatened planet, and some of the |
| 03:35:36 | reasons for that are in brackets |
| 03:35:39 | after that statement. And then, coming right |
| 03:35:41 | down to earth, another definition of "we," |
| 03:35:44 | which is more individual or local: we are |
| 03:35:47 | People, if we're fortunate with a house, |
| 03:35:51 | a job, a car, and aspirations to travel, now, |
| 03:35:55 | if we're talking about survival and the fullness |
| 03:36:00 | of life, how do these two impulses relate? |
| 03:36:04 | And the linchpin of an approach to this, |
| 03:36:09 | as I said, in a Christian perspective, and... |
| 03:36:16 | In religious perspective, generally, God is understood, |
| 03:36:19 | as I've said, as pure self-giving, |
| 03:36:22 | pure creativity, or a peculiarly intense form of love, |
| 03:36:28 | and this makes the biosphere, the world, |
| 03:36:34 | into what we call a creation or a sacred. |
| 03:36:38 | Place, and all this grounds what I call an ethical model, |
| 03:36:43 | and it's basically as follows. On the |
| 03:36:47 | one hand, you've got pure self-giving, which you see |
| 03:36:51 | in some of the great religious leaders, some of |
| 03:36:55 | the saints, in the person of Jesus, and people. |
| 03:36:59 | Indeed, I have got no religion, or I wouldn't own to having one. |
| 03:37:04 | That's on the one hand. On the other hand, |
| 03:37:07 | you would have pure self-interest, |
| 03:37:10 | pure self-centeredness, the other pole of that. |
| 03:37:14 | And in the middle is what I call reciprocity, |
| 03:37:19 | which is about give and take, or the giving and |
| 03:37:23 | the receiving of love or whatever. |
| 03:37:26 | And I would say that most of us oscillate between self-interest |
| 03:37:31 | and reciprocity, and pure self-giving or pure creativity |
| 03:37:36 | or love is something of an ideal that |
| 03:37:41 | we achieve in flashes. So what I really want |
| 03:37:45 | to ask, I'm kind of shortening down this talk |
| 03:37:50 | so I don't overrun time. What I want to ask is, is there something |
| 03:37:56 | beyond pure self-interest, at the individual, national, |
| 03:38:00 | or global level, that is the |
| 03:38:02 | perspective in which we can see action addressed to global warming? |
| 03:38:08 | Or, in other words, what about the other, |
| 03:38:11 | whether this be the other person, the other nation, |
| 03:38:14 | the natural environment as a kind of beloved other, |
| 03:38:18 | or even God as the holy other? |
| 03:38:22 | So, having just laid out that little bit of preamble, |
| 03:38:26 | I want to move into politics or economics. |
| 03:38:31 | And here I have a question and an answer. |
| 03:38:37 | The question is, how can ordinary people be |
| 03:38:40 | enabled to act in response to climate change |
| 03:38:43 | in a way that respects their |
| 03:38:45 | civil liberties and benefits the whole society? |
| 03:38:49 | And the sketch of an answer: in promoting social change, |
| 03:38:53 | a policy of carrots is better than one of sticks. |
| 03:38:58 | People should not be forced, but enabled to act. |
| 03:39:04 | Now, in saying that, I just want to give |
| 03:39:07 | what I think is a very interesting historical answer. |
| 03:39:10 | One of the world's most brilliant economists is a man called |
| 03:39:15 | Amartya Sen, who was a Nobel Prize winner for economics in 1998. |
| 03:39:21 | And he did a lot of work on |
| 03:39:25 | how to prevent famine on the Indian subcontinent, |
| 03:39:28 | and many of you will be familiar with this. |
| 03:39:30 | And he himself comes from Dhaka in Bangladesh, |
| 03:39:33 | and so this is very close to his heart. |
| 03:39:37 | And his central observation is that |
| 03:39:39 | there's no intrinsic connection or correlation |
| 03:39:42 | between the availability of foodstuffs and famine. |
| 03:39:47 | The missing link is money and a functioning economy. |
| 03:39:51 | And in this way, he pleads for an ethical economics |
| 03:39:55 | in which people are regarded as more than just self-interested individuals, |
| 03:39:59 | and his plea is that people, no matter how poor, |
| 03:40:03 | should be treated as subjects with individual liberties |
| 03:40:07 | but also social responsibility. |
| 03:40:09 | Capable that is of acting not only in their own self-interest |
| 03:40:14 | but that of the wider society, |
| 03:40:16 | and from this standpoint, his advice to governments has been: |
| 03:40:22 | give people, especially the poorest people, the money |
| 03:40:25 | or the employment they need to buy food. |
| 03:40:29 | And this not only as a way |
| 03:40:32 | of addressing the immediate problem of starvation, |
| 03:40:35 | but as a catalyst to kick-start or enhance the economy. |
| 03:40:40 | For what is an economy but a way of buying and selling goods and services, |
| 03:40:45 | which depend on there being enough money in the system to make it work? |
| 03:40:49 | And the purpose of an economy is to support a certain way of life. |
| 03:40:57 | Now, I think this understanding of economics |
| 03:41:00 | can help us when we're talking about |
| 03:41:03 | enabling widespread social change in response to global warming. |
| 03:41:08 | And I want to put it like this, |
| 03:41:11 | and this is kind of the key sentence of this presentation. |
| 03:41:14 | If there is no intrinsic connection |
| 03:41:17 | between the availability of foodstuffs and famine, |
| 03:41:20 | the missing link is a functioning economy. |
| 03:41:23 | So if we want to make a connection |
| 03:41:26 | between reducing carbon emissions and people's ability to act, |
| 03:41:31 | we need to put in place some relevant subsidies or tax |
| 03:41:35 | breaks that will give rise to |
| 03:41:37 | a functioning, green, or eco-friendly economy. |
| 03:41:41 | And this, if you like, is classical Keynesian economics, |
| 03:41:44 | but applied in the case of India to famine and, |
| 03:41:47 | in the case of the world today, in relation to global warming |
| 03:41:52 | and the changes that need to be made in response to that. |
| 03:41:57 | So, coming back to the ordinary person, sort of we in the second sense, |
| 03:42:01 | suppose the agenda for the ordinary person includes some of the following: |
| 03:42:08 | installing solar panels, re-insulating the house, |
| 03:42:10 | all the things we've just heard about, |
| 03:42:12 | buying a rainwater tank, sharing or owning a wind generator. |
| 03:42:16 | Buying a more fuel-efficient car, cutting air travel by half, |
| 03:42:21 | retraining for a new job in a green or |
| 03:42:25 | eco-friendly industry—his or her reaction might be, |
| 03:42:29 | "That's all very well, but I can't afford it."So |
| 03:42:32 | I'm suggesting that the best way to get the ball rolling... |
| 03:42:36 | Might be a green version of the food subsidies |
| 03:42:40 | that were so effective in addressing famine |
| 03:42:45 | in India and Bangladesh. If we take, |
| 03:42:48 | for example, the solar panels, for many people this is a |
| 03:42:52 | nice idea, but at the present moment it is unaffordable, |
| 03:42:56 | quite apart from the question of availability. |
| 03:42:59 | And my suggestion is that there should be |
| 03:43:02 | two types of subsidy or tax break to address |
| 03:43:04 | this problem: one to enable people to buy |
| 03:43:08 | and install solar panels on their homes, |
| 03:43:11 | and another to fund research and development. |
| 03:43:13 | And manufacture of cheap and effective solar |
| 03:43:16 | panels for the general market. |
| 03:43:18 | And if this were to happen, a win-win-win |
| 03:43:22 | situation would be created in which the self-interest |
| 03:43:26 | of all parties would benefit. Self-interest is not necessarily a bad thing. |
| 03:43:30 | For the householder, it would mean reduced power bills. |
| 03:43:34 | For the economy and the job market, |
| 03:43:37 | it could create a growth area with further implications |
| 03:43:39 | for the tax take, and for the |
| 03:43:42 | overall problem of climate change, a progressive reduction |
| 03:43:45 | in the domestic consumption of energy as generated. |
| 03:43:50 | And provided by oil or coal-fired power companies. |
| 03:43:54 | If this domestic consumption could be met |
| 03:43:57 | by energy derived from the sun, then energy |
| 03:44:01 | generated by wind or water could be |
| 03:44:05 | reserved for other purposes, mostly industrial. |
| 03:44:08 | In this way, I think New Zealand might be |
| 03:44:11 | able to escape the coal or nuclear dilemma. |
| 03:44:14 | A couple of years ago, I was in |
| 03:44:16 | the Greek islands in the Mediterranean, and almost every |
| 03:44:19 | single house had a solar panel on it. |
| 03:44:23 | I'd like to see that in all our cities |
| 03:44:26 | and dwellings here, that we've all got solar panels. |
| 03:44:28 | And what I've been throwing out is some |
| 03:44:31 | practical suggestions as to how that could happen, |
| 03:44:34 | and some of its implications for energy use right |
| 03:44:37 | across the whole country and the whole economy. |
| 03:44:41 | Now, the third part of this talk, very briefly, is about change. |
| 03:44:48 | And I just want to ask here, are there any |
| 03:44:52 | ethical or spiritual principles underlying what we do about climate change? |
| 03:44:56 | And I just want to suggest three. |
| 03:45:10 | First one, A, look to the plight of the most vulnerable. |
| 03:45:13 | B. To conceptualize humankind's relation to the environment, |
| 03:45:17 | there must be a principle of reciprocity, |
| 03:45:21 | and C. All of us must learn to |
| 03:45:24 | live a simpler, less profligate, more spiritual lifestyle. |
| 03:45:26 | Something very brief about each of those. |
| 03:45:29 | First of all, the most vulnerable. |
| 03:45:32 | We're not just talking about melting ice caps, |
| 03:45:36 | but also about the Bangladeshis, the low-lying islands in the Pacific. |
| 03:45:41 | New Orleans, desertification in Africa and China, and so forth. |
| 03:45:46 | And we're also talking about biodiversity, |
| 03:45:49 | ranging from coral reefs to birds, fish, and animals. |
| 03:45:54 | Is it a matter of indifference to us humans, |
| 03:45:57 | as a species or as people living in safe locations, |
| 03:46:00 | if some places or species get the chop as a result of global warming? |
| 03:46:06 | And the answer is, of course, no, a very emphatic no. |
| 03:46:11 | And the reason for this, purely from a point of |
| 03:46:14 | view of self-interest, is that the whole biosphere is interconnected. |
| 03:46:20 | If one part of it suffers, we all suffer. |
| 03:46:23 | Or, to put it in a slogan, if the ice caps |
| 03:46:26 | melt and the animals and the plants go, we go too. |
| 03:46:30 | So there's no standpoint from which we can be indifferent |
| 03:46:33 | to what is happening out there in the natural environment, |
| 03:46:37 | because it impacts directly on us. |
| 03:46:40 | And our aspirations for survival and the fullness of life. |
| 03:46:45 | Secondly, humankind's relation to the |
| 03:46:47 | environment should be one of reciprocity. |
| 03:46:50 | I guess this is kind of obvious, but it needs to be stated. |
| 03:46:55 | If we take more fish out of the sea than can be replenished naturally, |
| 03:46:59 | then very soon the world's oceans get fished out. |
| 03:47:03 | And the same could be said of trees, soil, water, and lots of other things. |
| 03:47:09 | And this could be strengthened by saying |
| 03:47:12 | that ecologically, or in the order of creation, |
| 03:47:16 | as defined spiritually and ethically, everything has its place |
| 03:47:20 | and has its own peculiar right to exist. |
| 03:47:24 | A fish has a right to be a fish, and the |
| 03:47:28 | quantity of fish has a right to be stable throughout the oceans. |
| 03:47:33 | An ocean has a right to be an ocean, a |
| 03:47:35 | tree to be a tree, a river to be a river, |
| 03:47:38 | a mountain to be a mountain, a lake to |
| 03:47:40 | be a lake, or a forest to be a forest. |
| 03:47:42 | And my question is, should these rights be protected |
| 03:47:48 | by being enshrined as legal rights in international law, |
| 03:47:54 | whereby they can be enforced or upheld before courts or |
| 03:47:58 | tribunals in a way that is more effective than at present? |
| 03:48:01 | Surely, some legally effective way has to be found to stop |
| 03:48:07 | or stabilize humankind's reckless and |
| 03:48:10 | narrowly self-interested plundering of the environment. |
| 03:48:12 | This has to stop, but one way of making it stop is giving |
| 03:48:18 | the stopping process some legal teeth, which it doesn't have at the moment. |
| 03:48:23 | And thirdly, all of us must learn to |
| 03:48:28 | live a simpler, less profligate, more spiritual lifestyle. |
| 03:48:31 | One way of reducing our obsession with travel, |
| 03:48:38 | we're a very restless species, humankind, |
| 03:48:43 | we're moving around from A to B, |
| 03:48:46 | whether this be internationally or locally. |
| 03:48:48 | One way of reducing our obsession with travel, |
| 03:48:53 | whether by plane or by car, |
| 03:48:56 | would be to make home a much more attractive and creative place. |
| 03:49:01 | And here you can hear echoes of my original model of creation, |
| 03:49:06 | and God being the source of creativity, self-giving, and love. |
| 03:49:13 | I've touched already on what it means to make a |
| 03:49:17 | house eco-friendly, but what about making a house creative? |
| 03:49:21 | That's an intriguing question, or a question that intrigues me. |
| 03:49:26 | And one of the, I would say, |
| 03:49:29 | glaring weaknesses of our civilization, in my judgment, |
| 03:49:32 | is that in most houses there is no room |
| 03:49:35 | or no place where people can have the space |
| 03:49:39 | and get away from the television to compose music. |
| 03:49:43 | Paint pictures, write, pray, do yoga, sing, or whatever, |
| 03:49:48 | and this is partly a function of the |
| 03:49:51 | dominance of the media and television in particular, |
| 03:49:55 | but also the fact of the architecture of our average house, |
| 03:49:59 | where there isn't room to be a creative person. |
| 03:50:02 | We're all on top of each other, and we can't get away from the TV. |
| 03:50:06 | A friend of mine who's a composer says, |
| 03:50:09 | "If you want to compose music, you have to switch off the TV." |
| 03:50:14 | So the possibilities of making what I call creative spaces |
| 03:50:19 | in a new architecture, I think, are endless. |
| 03:50:23 | And I hope that people who are designing eco-friendly houses for the future |
| 03:50:31 | will consider what it means for people to be creative, |
| 03:50:35 | to be at home in their own homes, and to do something wonderful there, |
| 03:50:40 | and not to travel elsewhere to have to do that. |
| 03:50:43 | So the payoff for that would be a great enrichment of people. |
| 03:50:49 | Spiritually and culturally, and indeed of the whole society, |
| 03:50:53 | so just to wrap this up now, instead of being consumers |
| 03:50:58 | as in the consumer society, we need to learn to become producers of energy, |
| 03:51:07 | I've talked about solar power but all sorts of other ways, |
| 03:51:10 | and creators of a new kind of human flourishing. |
| 03:51:14 | A lot less materialistic than the one we've gotten addicted to, |
| 03:51:18 | and in this, the ability to |
| 03:51:21 | give and to love and to create will be crucial. |
| 03:51:27 | We need to recover all those virtues, and what I would be |
| 03:51:33 | saying as a theologian is that if our, that is... |
| 03:51:37 | Our goal, then: God as the reality to which all other |
| 03:51:41 | realities are relative, may be our last, best ally |
| 03:51:45 | and resource in that ongoing task. And in pleading |
| 03:51:49 | for this, as has been said by previous speakers, |
| 03:51:53 | what we're up against is an emerging, fund-driven... |
| 03:51:57 | Global culture says we want it all, and we |
| 03:52:00 | want it now. The problem with this is |
| 03:52:03 | that it creates a profligate lifestyle, |
| 03:52:06 | the very one that is actually killing the planet. |
| 03:52:09 | So there's a lot of food for reflection in that, I hope. |
| 03:52:27 | Thank you very much. The person who left this |
| 03:52:29 | note on my desk, could they meet me at the |
| 03:52:32 | bottom of the steps after this? I simply can't read it. |
| 03:52:34 | Thank you very much. Now, under the |
| 03:52:36 | title Concepts of Harmony, Dr. |
| 03:52:38 | Jay Shaw, Senior Lecturer in the Philosophy Department of Victoria |
| 03:52:43 | University of Wellington, will speak on the |
| 03:52:45 | spiritual dimension of life for peace and |
| 03:52:48 | our existence. Dr. Jay Shaw. |
| 03:53:02 | I hope all of you have gotten a copy of |
| 03:53:06 | this handout, as well as my actual text, which is |
| 03:53:09 | pretty long. Because of time constraints, |
| 03:53:14 | I will summarize in 15 minutes. But before that, |
| 03:53:19 | I would like to convey my heartfelt |
| 03:53:23 | thanks and gratitude to the organizer, |
| 03:53:27 | especially our most revered Swāmījī, who is the |
| 03:53:33 | main source of inspiration for this global movement. |
| 03:53:40 | And I am sure he will achieve the goal and the ideals of our philosophy. |
| 03:53:49 | I would also like to convey my heartfelt thanks and gratitude, |
| 03:53:55 | not only to the organizers but also to all our guests. |
| 03:54:01 | There are so many guests coming from different countries, and all |
| 03:54:06 | the people present here, ladies and gentlemen, brothers and sisters. |
| 03:54:11 | Now, I would like to focus on this diagram, which includes all |
| 03:54:21 | the concepts of harmony we found |
| 03:54:26 | in philosophy, especially in Indian philosophy. |
| 03:54:31 | So, I shall be speaking from the standpoint of philosophy, |
| 03:54:38 | especially Śaṅkara's philosophy, |
| 03:54:41 | Vedānta philosophy, and the Yoga philosophy. |
| 03:54:45 | And all of them have their roots in the Vedas. |
| 03:54:50 | Veda is the oldest literature, or surviving literature, on earth. |
| 03:54:58 | How old it is exactly we do not know, |
| 03:55:00 | but it is definitely more than 5,000 years old. |
| 03:55:04 | And the Sāṅkhya and the Yoga I will mention. There is a quotation, |
| 03:55:12 | In relation to knowledge, nothing can surpass Sāṅkhya. |
| 03:55:19 | In relation to strength or service to humanity, nothing can surpass yoga. |
| 03:55:31 | Since this organization, Yoga in Daily Life, |
| 03:55:35 | has organized this, they have shown what we can do. |
| 03:55:39 | And I am really very grateful to them |
| 03:55:43 | for taking this message from one country to another. |
| 03:55:48 | Now, the first one: mokṣa, dharma, karma, and artha. |
| 03:55:59 | Some of the conflicts can be resolved |
| 03:56:02 | by arranging them in a hierarchical order. |
| 03:56:06 | If we go back to history, it is riddled with violence. |
| 03:56:14 | All of you know, different world wars, |
| 03:56:19 | millions died, billions became homeless, destitute. |
| 03:56:23 | Now you are facing another big problem. |
| 03:56:29 | That problem is the problem of global warming, |
| 03:56:33 | which is more serious than any |
| 03:56:36 | other problem humankind has been confronted with. |
| 03:56:40 | This is due to the fact that global warming will lead to the extinction not |
| 03:56:45 | only of human beings, but also of other living beings and vegetation. |
| 03:56:52 | Hence, it will lead to the extinction of the entire world. |
| 03:56:58 | Now, Indian philosophers from the very dawn of civilization, |
| 03:57:03 | the Sāṅkhya Yoga system, they have addressed this |
| 03:57:06 | question: what are the origins, what are |
| 03:57:09 | the causal conditions of types of suffering? |
| 03:57:13 | They have classified suffering into three types. |
| 03:57:16 | One is called Ādhibhautika. Bhauta means body, bodily suffering. |
| 03:57:23 | Another is Ādidaivik, natural disasters. |
| 03:57:29 | This global warming will come under natural disasters, |
| 03:57:32 | but these natural disasters are caused by |
| 03:57:36 | human beings due to carbon dioxide emissions. |
| 03:57:43 | Excessive carbon dioxide emission. |
| 03:57:47 | So, human beings, or some countries, |
| 03:57:50 | are to be held responsible for this global suffering, |
| 03:57:54 | not only of human beings but also of other |
| 03:57:58 | beings and vegetation, or the extinction of vegetation. |
| 03:58:04 | Then, the third type of suffering is called suffering due to the mind. |
| 03:58:10 | Suffering is due to mental conditions, |
| 03:58:15 | that is called also spiritual suffering, Ādhi Ādhyātmik. |
| 03:58:20 | So they have addressed this question: how to alleviate |
| 03:58:24 | human beings, any being, from all types of suffering. |
| 03:58:28 | How to make the world a better place for everybody. |
| 03:58:33 | So, regarding the nature of human beings, |
| 03:58:37 | some of you mentioned the different dimensions of human beings. |
| 03:58:41 | I will mention that human beings |
| 03:58:44 | have different dimensions, especially a spiritual dimension also, |
| 03:58:48 | that is coming from the concept of dharma and adharma. |
| 03:58:52 | We have, human beings have, human beings are |
| 03:58:55 | guided by the conception of ought, ought not, |
| 03:58:58 | which is peculiarly present in human beings only, not in other beings. |
| 03:59:04 | Secondly, human beings got freedom. |
| 03:59:07 | Thirdly, human beings participate in infinity also. |
| 03:59:11 | Fourthly, human beings are creative. |
| 03:59:17 | And fifthly, human beings can transcend their present condition and |
| 03:59:23 | participate in the transcendental level. |
| 03:59:28 | That is called in Sanskrit sādhāraṇī kṛti. |
| 03:59:32 | They can enjoy what is called rasa, bhakti rasa. |
| 03:59:37 | They can lose their selfish ego and |
| 03:59:41 | merge into the impersonal, into the universal Self. |
| 03:59:47 | Now, most of our problems are due to the fact |
| 03:59:50 | that we do not realize the true nature of human beings. |
| 03:59:54 | And we do not condemn violence to the extent it should be condemned. |
| 04:00:02 | Dharma, what is dharma? There are many definitions |
| 04:00:06 | of dharma. Dharma means that which holds, that which |
| 04:00:10 | is responsible for prosperity, not for me, for all, |
| 04:00:15 | for everybody, for the whole world. I will just give one |
| 04:00:20 | or two quotations. I will say it is the... |
| 04:00:24 | The foundation of the universe, as well as the world, |
| 04:00:29 | is dharma. Dharma is truth. There are many, |
| 04:00:35 | many definitions, all of them are applicable to this modern world. |
| 04:00:41 | Due to time constraint, I cannot mention all |
| 04:00:45 | of them. So, dharma is something which is real. |
| 04:00:49 | Which is existent, which will support it, |
| 04:00:52 | and when we do adharma, we lead to destruction. |
| 04:00:56 | Violence is one of them. |
| 04:00:58 | Since it is organized by the Yoga Society, I would like |
| 04:01:01 | to mention I have derived a lot of inspiration from yoga. |
| 04:01:04 | They have classified 81 types of violence, |
| 04:01:08 | especially in the commentary of Vācaspati Miśra, |
| 04:01:13 | and three of them are basic, non-derivable. |
| 04:01:17 | One of them is killing: any type of |
| 04:01:20 | killing or torturing someone, ordering to kill or torture, |
| 04:01:25 | and approval of killing or torture. |
| 04:01:26 | And here, approval means if you do |
| 04:01:30 | not oppose, then also, implicitly, we are approving. |
| 04:01:34 | So global warming, which leads to the destruction of the world, |
| 04:01:37 | if we do not oppose global warming, those who are responsible for it, |
| 04:01:43 | then implicitly we are also committing a type of violence. |
| 04:01:47 | And Gandhījī, the present 20th century messenger of peace, |
| 04:01:56 | sacrificed his life for nonviolence. |
| 04:01:59 | Such a great man. So, this violence is |
| 04:02:03 | one of the causal conditions, different types of violence, |
| 04:02:07 | for our problems. Now, because of time constraint, |
| 04:02:14 | the first diagram, number one: we resolve problems, conflicts, |
| 04:02:20 | by arranging them in a hierarchical order. |
| 04:02:23 | Which one will come at the apex? Dharma, |
| 04:02:26 | which will lead to cessation from suffering. |
| 04:02:31 | Moksha is cessation from all types of suffering. Dharma will lead us to it. |
| 04:02:35 | And dharma will control our karma, our desires, our pleasure principle, |
| 04:02:41 | and curb our excessive possession. |
| 04:02:45 | Then, number two, that is the Joyner theory, |
| 04:02:49 | that if there is a conflict, sometimes both parties are right. |
| 04:02:53 | Like I feel cold, you can say I feel hot. |
| 04:02:56 | But these systems cannot solve all the |
| 04:03:02 | problems of life, all the types of suffering. |
| 04:03:09 | Third one, that is from the Buddhist literature, |
| 04:03:12 | Nāgārjuna, he is called also the second Buddha, |
| 04:03:17 | one of the greatest logicians and metaphysicians. |
| 04:03:22 | He claims from the ultimate point of view, all the views are simply views. |
| 04:03:28 | So they are ultimately false of ultimate reality. |
| 04:03:33 | Then the fourth one is Śaṅkha Bhagavad Gītā, |
| 04:03:37 | then Yoga, it will come under that, number four. |
| 04:03:42 | It is claimed with respect to |
| 04:03:45 | the conflict between Jñāna, Karma, and Bhakti. |
| 04:03:48 | Jñāna is knowledge, but there are two types |
| 04:03:50 | of knowledge: higher knowledge and lower knowledge. |
| 04:03:54 | Lower knowledge deals with the phenomenal world; |
| 04:03:56 | higher knowledge deals with the nature of the self, |
| 04:03:59 | the nature of ultimate reality, how I |
| 04:04:02 | am related to ultimate reality and other beings. |
| 04:04:06 | Then karma yoga, karma yoga is the |
| 04:04:09 | practice of dharma, the practice of righteous activities. |
| 04:04:13 | And bhakti yoga is determination, devotion towards that action. |
| 04:04:18 | So it is claimed that there are alternative paths, and any |
| 04:04:23 | one of them will lead you to the same goal. |
| 04:04:27 | Second one is hierarchy, that is Śaṅkara, |
| 04:04:33 | the greatest Advaitin philosopher, perhaps |
| 04:04:36 | the greatest philosopher of India. |
| 04:04:40 | He claims that you start with karma. Karma means doing good actions, |
| 04:04:44 | what I ought to do for the good of all. |
| 04:04:48 | Then bhakti means determination; it will purify your soul and your mind, |
| 04:04:53 | and then you have jñāna. |
| 04:04:55 | You will realize how you are related to everything. |
| 04:04:58 | Second, the third one is Rāmānuja, |
| 04:05:02 | who emphasizes bhakti, coming from the southern part of India. |
| 04:05:08 | Of course, Śaṅkara is also from the southern part of India. |
| 04:05:11 | He emphasizes bhakti, devotion. |
| 04:05:14 | Karma will purify, and karma will give us knowledge. |
| 04:05:19 | That means if you do righteous activities, |
| 04:05:22 | good actions, ethical actions in a very broad sense, |
| 04:05:26 | then you reach the goal, bhaya bhakti. |
| 04:05:29 | Then the third one, I am sure Gandhijī will come under that group. |
| 04:05:37 | And Lokmāṇḍa Tilak wrote a book on the |
| 04:05:40 | Bhagavad Gītā, and he emphasizes karma yoga. |
| 04:05:44 | That means ultimately it is a good action. |
| 04:05:47 | First, you have determination and devotion; then you |
| 04:05:52 | have knowledge, and then you act without any selfish motive. |
| 04:05:57 | So Gandhijī is a great champion of karma yoga, |
| 04:06:02 | then Lokamānatilaka as well as Aurobindo will command like this. |
| 04:06:09 | Swami Vivekānanda claimed that they crisscross, |
| 04:06:11 | that means they are all related. |
| 04:06:14 | And I am claiming, following some of |
| 04:06:17 | the passages in the Bhagavad Gītā, three in one. |
| 04:06:20 | You start with one, then you finish with others. |
| 04:06:23 | And then the last one, number six, because I do |
| 04:06:27 | not have much time, I am claiming the last portion, |
| 04:06:31 | that in this world, if we want to achieve our goal, |
| 04:06:35 | then we must have the Vedāntic conception of oneness. |
| 04:06:40 | Vedānta says that I am Brahman. Every individual is Brahman. |
| 04:06:45 | What does it mean? That I am identical with Brahman? |
| 04:06:49 | My interpretation is, I am related to everything. |
| 04:06:53 | My well-being is dependent on other things. |
| 04:06:57 | So I am claiming here, following the yoga system also. |
| 04:07:05 | Those who have doubts, there is a method for the removal of doubt. |
| 04:07:09 | And yoga gives you a detailed method for the removal of doubt. |
| 04:07:14 | And this ideal of oneness at a global level can be realized |
| 04:07:19 | if the countries are governed by a single world body. |
| 04:07:24 | Global resources, such as food, water, and land, are shared evenly. |
| 04:07:29 | This would remove the root cause of poverty |
| 04:07:33 | of the teeming billions, the root cause of terrorism, |
| 04:07:36 | and the root cause of conflict or war between nations at a global level. |
| 04:07:41 | It would also resolve some of the problems due to global warming, |
| 04:07:45 | as there will be common projects and common |
| 04:07:49 | rules for the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions. |
| 04:07:53 | This oneness would promote some basic or core values, such as |
| 04:07:59 | nonviolence and love, and teach how to realize them in this life. |
| 04:08:04 | If several countries, such as Germany, France, and the |
| 04:08:08 | United Kingdom, can form a union with a single |
| 04:08:12 | currency and a common passport, then all the |
| 04:08:15 | nations of the world can also form a single government. |
| 04:08:19 | Similarly, if 50 states in the USA |
| 04:08:22 | can form a single government, then all these |
| 04:08:25 | states in the world can also form |
| 04:08:28 | a single government for the betterment of all. |
| 04:08:31 | This will make the world nuclear-free, |
| 04:08:34 | armament-free, strife-free, and warming-free. |
| 04:08:39 | Thus, it would pave the way for global peace and harmony. |
| 04:08:43 | Hence, it is our duty to make the rich nations |
| 04:08:48 | feel for the developing nations, for the poor nations, |
| 04:08:53 | to make the rich nations realize that their occupation |
| 04:08:58 | of disproportionate land and resources |
| 04:09:01 | is unfair, unjust, and unreasonable. |
| 04:09:03 | At the moment, the ratio is sometimes per capita income is 1 |
| 04:09:08 | to 1,000, even, and in most cases, 1 to 80 or 100. |
| 04:09:15 | One sentence, last one. |
| 04:09:17 | This can be achieved by changing people's hearts and by |
| 04:09:22 | carrying the message of oneness, the message of Swāmījī, |
| 04:09:27 | the message of all the great masters of |
| 04:09:31 | the world, the message of oneness and universal brotherhood |
| 04:09:35 | to every individual, to every city, |
| 04:09:38 | To every community, and to every nation. |
| 04:09:42 | Hence, the message of the Vedic seers—the |
| 04:09:46 | entire world is your relation—is the message |
| 04:09:50 | of freedom, peace, bliss, and global harmony. |
| 04:09:55 | It is for the betterment of all and every being. |
| 04:10:09 | Dr. Shaw's diagram will be available out at reception. |
| 04:10:13 | Copies of it are out there. |
| 04:10:15 | Our last session deals with the realization that |
| 04:10:18 | our planet is in trust for generations to come. |
| 04:10:22 | They used to say that we don't inherit the planet |
| 04:10:24 | from our parents; we keep it in trust for our children. |
| 04:10:27 | Four international guests will deliver short, |
| 04:10:30 | let's say, 10-minute speeches addressing that theme. |
| 04:10:33 | Each speaker has flown to New Zealand at their |
| 04:10:35 | own expense to share this message with the delegates. |
| 04:10:39 | The first speaker, and I hope I can pronounce it correctly, |
| 04:10:42 | is Timmy Isimovic, an author on climate change. |
| 04:10:45 | Please. |
| 04:11:02 | Good evening, everybody. |
| 04:11:04 | Dear Sir Minji, distinguished guests, speakers, |
| 04:11:08 | ladies and gentlemen, and friends. |
| 04:11:11 | My name is Timmy Isimovic, and I'm coming from a small country, |
| 04:11:15 | and I was lucky to touch a very old |
| 04:11:21 | script which is leading today's philosophy and the practice of humanity, |
| 04:11:27 | and they used to call them Esveras, |
| 04:11:30 | which was written about 1,900 years before Christ. |
| 04:11:34 | I'm very happy today to have the opportunity to talk with you, |
| 04:11:39 | and I'm even more happy that my friend Slamījī, |
| 04:11:43 | we have been sharing all meetings up to now, |
| 04:11:47 | and this one I feel is a |
| 04:11:50 | special one because it's connected with climate change. |
| 04:11:53 | I was very unhappy listening today. |
| 04:11:57 | Everybody was talking about climate change and |
| 04:12:01 | global warming, but no one mentioned ozone depletion. Many people were |
| 04:12:06 | talking about what we can do or what we cannot do. |
| 04:12:10 | I think, first of all, the climate change, if we put it in the context |
| 04:12:17 | of a system, we could say the |
| 04:12:21 | climate change system, and what we are dealing |
| 04:12:24 | with today is not the climate change, but the impact of the climate change |
| 04:12:31 | system on the tiny part of the |
| 04:12:35 | planet Earth, which is called the biosphere. |
| 04:12:38 | I was very unhappy to hear that our |
| 04:12:43 | civilization is living with other creatures on the earth. |
| 04:12:50 | It is a little like in the 40s when |
| 04:12:54 | some European leaders were doing real damage to the world. |
| 04:12:59 | Because we, as a civilization, are just one |
| 04:13:03 | tiny civilization within the total civilizations of the world. |
| 04:13:08 | And, of course, I have to say thanks to Lavalok, who made us do |
| 04:13:13 | a lot of very loose thinking, and we learned a lot from him. |
| 04:13:18 | But today, things are changing very fast. |
| 04:13:24 | The climate change system's impact on the |
| 04:13:30 | Earth's biosphere will make the biosphere unlivable. |
| 04:13:34 | It is a system which provides, which makes, |
| 04:13:42 | which is guarding the living conditions on the earth. |
| 04:13:50 | And all creatures depend on living conditions, which are so |
| 04:13:57 | important that extinction is taking over 100,000 species a year. |
| 04:14:04 | And they are not extinct because I killed the ant. |
| 04:14:11 | They are extinct because the living |
| 04:14:14 | conditions are going out of their niche, |
| 04:14:18 | meaning they cannot survive. |
| 04:14:22 | And I am very happy to deliver to you the recent contemporary thinking |
| 04:14:27 | and the scientific approach of systems thinking, |
| 04:14:31 | by what my friend Samīmjī was doing. |
| 04:14:34 | He does say, "Yoga in Daily Life,"a system |
| 04:14:41 | for harmony of body, mind, and soul. |
| 04:14:49 | And it is true, humankind is one of the systems of nature. |
| 04:14:55 | And he is covering with these few words |
| 04:14:58 | all that we are talking and discussing about. |
| 04:15:03 | So I would like to say to you, |
| 04:15:07 | the sustainable development as a strategy for a better tomorrow |
| 04:15:10 | was mishandled by ourselves, and we are looking now for a new strategy |
| 04:15:16 | which could be offered to all |
| 04:15:20 | of us by transcendence from sustainable development. |
| 04:15:23 | To a sustainable future of humankind. |
| 04:15:29 | A sustainable future for humankind is in harmony with nature. Thank you. |
| 04:15:34 | The next speaker is Riccardo Didone. |
| 04:15:46 | He's a children's rights advocate and author, Riccardo. |
| 04:15:51 | When we age, we need glasses. |
| 04:16:24 | Yes, it is my great privilege and real honor |
| 04:16:30 | to be here with all of you in Wellington, |
| 04:16:38 | the magnificent capital of New Zealand. |
| 04:16:41 | His Holiness Yogī Swāmījī, my dear friends, brothers and sisters. |
| 04:16:47 | First, I must thank and congratulate |
| 04:16:50 | the organizer for this outstanding event. |
| 04:16:52 | I would like to particularly thank His Holiness Yogi Swāmījī for |
| 04:16:58 | his wise approach in encouraging us all to achieve world peace |
| 04:17:04 | by opening our hearts to tolerance |
| 04:17:08 | and understanding of all cultures and religions. |
| 04:17:12 | This goal should be adopted by all human beings and governments. |
| 04:17:18 | We have been striving for this goal for many, many years. |
| 04:17:22 | Furthermore, as His Holiness preaches, the religions |
| 04:17:24 | of the world must unify their efforts |
| 04:17:27 | in order to bring peace and harmony to this beautiful planet. |
| 04:17:31 | Two of the most important challenges that we face in the future |
| 04:17:36 | are the impact of climate change and the upbringing of our youth. |
| 04:17:42 | Today we talked a lot about climate change. |
| 04:17:45 | But if we want to go in the right direction, it is |
| 04:17:50 | most important to educate the new |
| 04:17:52 | generation on the importance of climate change. |
| 04:17:55 | And it is also very important to sensitize our youth |
| 04:18:00 | to why it is so important to live with peace and harmony. |
| 04:18:05 | In discussing climate change and the physical environment, |
| 04:18:08 | we believe that we must also speak |
| 04:18:11 | of this human environment and all the other |
| 04:18:15 | factors that affect the future of our children. |
| 04:18:18 | I want to address one of the major social ills that is |
| 04:18:23 | plaguing our children's future in most |
| 04:18:25 | industrialized countries today, which is street gangs. |
| 04:18:27 | We believe so strongly in the serious consequences |
| 04:18:31 | that joining a street gang can have on a child's |
| 04:18:34 | future that we wrote a book on |
| 04:18:36 | the subject entitled *Youth and Street Gang*. |
| 04:18:40 | But you may say, why write a book on street gangs? |
| 04:18:43 | The alarming increase of this |
| 04:18:45 | social phenomenon hinders our children's environment. |
| 04:18:49 | We therefore consider it important to produce an educational book |
| 04:18:52 | that would explain the nature of this |
| 04:18:55 | new social reality which confronts our children. |
| 04:18:58 | Our goal is simple. |
| 04:18:59 | Produce a tool that will inform them on certain social issues, |
| 04:19:04 | as well as clearly demonstrate the choices they have towards them, |
| 04:19:07 | so they may evolve in a sane and secure environment. |
| 04:19:13 | There are a number of factors why a child |
| 04:19:16 | or an adolescent may want to join a street gang. |
| 04:19:20 | Lack of belonging at home, dysfunctional home, broken homes. |
| 04:19:26 | Homes where parents are separating are as bitter as hell, |
| 04:19:29 | and children are often forgotten in the background. |
| 04:19:34 | The key to success is prevention. |
| 04:19:37 | There are many things that parents can do to |
| 04:19:40 | prevent their children from becoming involved with street gangs. |
| 04:19:43 | Parents should spend quality time with their children and get to |
| 04:19:46 | know their friends, as well as the family of their friends. |
| 04:19:50 | Parents should also be involved with the school. |
| 04:19:55 | They should be involved with the school activities and encourage |
| 04:19:57 | good study habits so that their child feels comfortable at school. |
| 04:20:00 | Parents must speak to their children about the dangers and |
| 04:20:05 | consequences of gangs and of adopting risky behaviors, such as drug use. |
| 04:20:09 | Alcohol, cigarettes, and this is why we created |
| 04:20:13 | this valuable tool: youth and street gangs, drugs, prostitution, |
| 04:20:17 | and other forms of violence. |
| 04:20:23 | You know, if we want to eradicate a dilemma, |
| 04:20:34 | It is very simple. Let us invest in education and awareness. |
| 04:20:38 | As you can see, it is important |
| 04:20:41 | to deal with both the physical aspect of our |
| 04:20:44 | climate change, as well as the aspect that deals |
| 04:20:46 | with the human environment. The children of |
| 04:20:50 | today will be the children of tomorrow. |
| 04:20:54 | If we start at a very, very early age in |
| 04:20:57 | giving them awareness about the environment, we won't |
| 04:21:00 | need to do this campaign today to reach governments, |
| 04:21:03 | because already it will be within themselves. |
| 04:21:05 | The same thing is, we give them what it |
| 04:21:08 | takes to flourish and respect people that are surrounding us. |
| 04:21:11 | No matter what religion, race, or color |
| 04:21:15 | we are, we will have a very harmonious world. |
| 04:21:20 | Of today, yes, are children of tomorrow. |
| 04:21:22 | We must do everything in our power to help them |
| 04:21:24 | to succeed in life, and that is why we |
| 04:21:27 | must reach as many children as possible with this |
| 04:21:30 | book entitled *Youth and Street Gangs*, so that |
| 04:21:33 | we can better inform them and they can make. |
| 04:21:35 | The right decision for their future, |
| 04:21:38 | therefore creating a much healthier physical and human |
| 04:21:40 | environment and society. And remember, together, the sky |
| 04:21:45 | is not the limit. It is only the beginning. |
| 04:21:49 | I would once again like to underline |
| 04:21:52 | my deep admiration and respect that I have for |
| 04:21:55 | His Holiness Yogī Swāmījī and his unwavering |
| 04:21:58 | dedication to world peace and the well-being |
| 04:22:01 | of our youth. And I also would like to acknowledge |
| 04:22:03 | a good friend of mine who has been very dedicated to |
| 04:22:06 | the World Peace Conference and also to the |
| 04:22:09 | plea of children with the Organization for the Protection |
| 04:22:12 | of Children's Rights, and I have named none. |
| 04:22:15 | Other than Dr. Timmy Akimovic, I would like |
| 04:22:18 | you all to give them a nice hand of applause for all the dedication |
| 04:22:22 | that they have for world peace. I would like |
| 04:22:30 | to wish all of you a productive summit, and I would like to |
| 04:22:34 | congratulate again all of you for attending this important summit. I think |
| 04:22:38 | flying from Canada to come here, considering the time it took to fly here, |
| 04:22:42 | it was nothing to the quality and the importance of this reunion, |
| 04:22:47 | this big family reunion. And I would also, because he's |
| 04:22:51 | in the background, but Mr. |
| 04:22:53 | Noel has been doing fantastic work. Let us also give |
| 04:22:55 | him a nice hand of applause for his determination |
| 04:22:57 | and involvement. I wish you all a most beautiful day. |
| 04:23:04 | Oh, I feel too embarrassed to speak now. |
| 04:23:11 | The third of these four short overseas |
| 04:23:14 | guest speakers is Dr. Pushpa Garg, who is |
| 04:23:18 | an Indian yoga therapist. Dr. |
| 04:23:20 | Garg: "Śāntir antarīkṣaṁ, śāntiḥ pṛthivī, |
| 04:23:34 | śāntir āpaḥ, śāntir oṣadhayaḥ, śāntiḥ." |
| 04:23:48 | Vanaspatayaḥ śānti, viśvedevāḥ śānti, brahma śānti, |
| 04:23:54 | hi sarvaguṇa śānti, hi śānti revāḥ. |
| 04:24:00 | His Holiness Param Pūjya His Holiness |
| 04:24:13 | Viśva Guru Mahāmaṇḍaleśvara Svāmī Maheśvarānandījī Mahārāja, |
| 04:24:26 | and sisters and brothers, my topic is |
| 04:24:30 | Vedic religion and its contribution to world peace: |
| 04:24:34 | The Vedic religion, popularly known as Hinduism, |
| 04:24:37 | owns the largest number of holy books. |
| 04:24:42 | The fundamentals of the religion are contained in the Upaniṣad. |
| 04:24:46 | The essence of the Upaniṣads is the Bhagavad Gītā. |
| 04:24:51 | It is the dialogue between Śrī Kṛṣṇa, the divine, and Arjuna, the human. |
| 04:24:57 | This conversation took place in the battlefield to indicate that life on |
| 04:25:03 | earth is verily a conflict between the good and the evil. |
| 04:25:10 | The good times ultimately satyame jayate. |
| 04:25:15 | Today, the world climate is changed. |
| 04:25:21 | If we want to maintain the climate, |
| 04:25:23 | we should follow the rules of the Vedas. |
| 04:25:26 | The four Vedas are the four pillars of Hindu mythology, |
| 04:25:31 | on which the entire edifice of the Vedic culture is standing. |
| 04:25:36 | This mythology is in the forms of hymns and verses. |
| 04:25:41 | The Vedas are the storehouse of all spiritual knowledge and science. |
| 04:25:46 | The Almighty, at the beginning of the creation, |
| 04:25:50 | transferred this wisdom in order to make our lives sublime. |
| 04:25:54 | The instructions given as Vedas are as follows. |
| 04:25:57 | First Vedas, first instruction: "Manurbhav janaya |
| 04:26:00 | devyam janam."It means, "Be humane." |
| 04:26:04 | In the true sense, it urges you to feel the |
| 04:26:08 | same for others as you feel for your own self. |
| 04:26:13 | Only a heart full of love for fellow beings can attain peace. |
| 04:26:18 | Love is a powerful instinct and binding force which |
| 04:26:22 | is found equally in both man and animals. |
| 04:26:25 | Though it may differ in its presentation in the former and the latter. |
| 04:26:32 | The second instruction: feel equality. In the Vedas, |
| 04:26:37 | all living beings are equal in the eyes of the creator. |
| 04:26:51 | Life on earth is composed of five elements, |
| 04:26:53 | that is earth, air, water, fire, and space, |
| 04:26:57 | and nature has given these elements to all living beings |
| 04:27:02 | most abundantly and extravagantly, without discrimination. |
| 04:27:08 | The Veda Bhagavān in the second message tells us to follow Mother Nature |
| 04:27:12 | and do likewise. For a life lived |
| 04:27:14 | for others is worth living. Narrowness, selfishness, |
| 04:27:17 | and the feeling of |
| 04:27:21 | superiority should be outright rejected in order to |
| 04:27:24 | pave the way for harmony and brotherhood, peace, progress, and prosperity. |
| 04:27:29 | The third instruction: unity in diversity. |
| 04:27:41 | It means unity in diversity. The huge universe cannot be homogeneous from |
| 04:27:47 | one end to another. There is diversification in the law of nature, |
| 04:27:52 | and by accepting this, |
| 04:27:54 | we must maintain unity in diversity of race, |
| 04:27:57 | creed, religion, culture, customs, and its. |
| 04:28:01 | The way Bhagavān tells us to make the universe a well-knit family. |
| 04:28:06 | Vasudeva Kutumbakam should be the rule of life. |
| 04:28:10 | The fourth instruction: union with God. |
| 04:28:14 | To surrender to Almighty God and constant remembrance of Mahāprabhujī can |
| 04:28:20 | transform our whole life and fill it with peace and tranquility. |
| 04:28:25 | It is written in the Bhagavad Gītā. |
| 04:28:30 | Our father of the nation, Mahātmā Gandhi's whole |
| 04:28:37 | life bears ample testimony to this way of life. |
| 04:28:44 | He looked upon all religions of the world as |
| 04:28:48 | his own, and hence he became an apostle of peace. |
| 04:28:52 | He used to lay great emphasis on |
| 04:28:55 | the following first mantra of Īśopaniṣad. |
| 04:28:57 | Everything living or non-living present in this universe belongs to God. |
| 04:29:13 | Therefore, one should fulfill his basic |
| 04:29:16 | needs only, without coveting others'wealth. |
| 04:29:19 | If a person truthfully observes the above three aspects, |
| 04:29:24 | then the problem of this world shall be definitely solved |
| 04:29:27 | and peace shall be established. |
| 04:29:31 | In order to restore peace in practical life, as per the Vedic message, |
| 04:29:35 | we have to adopt the Aṣṭāṅga Yoga system, especially Yama and Niyama. |
| 04:29:41 | Yama includes the discipline of truth, non-violence, non-stealing, |
| 04:29:45 | celibacy, and non-accumulation of wealth. |
| 04:29:49 | Niyam includes the discipline of purity, satisfaction, devotion, |
| 04:29:53 | study of holy scripture, and surrendering all our actions to God. |
| 04:30:01 | All of the above ten disciplines form the basis of peace. |
| 04:30:06 | Yama leads to social discipline, and Niyama belongs to personal discipline. |
| 04:30:11 | When all human beings practice both these disciplines, |
| 04:30:15 | peace will definitely find a place in the human heart on Earth. |
| 04:30:19 | The teachings of the Vedas and Upanishads bear ample testimony to |
| 04:30:24 | the fact that, till today, nothing has been achieved by fighting a war. |
| 04:30:30 | Let alone the peace. |
| 04:30:32 | The great yogī Swāmījī Mahārāj has written in his letter to the |
| 04:30:36 | President of America that war is a form of curse on the human race. |
| 04:30:42 | War is also a tragic end for both the winning and losing sides. |
| 04:30:47 | Hindu Dharma Samrara Sadguru Swami Madhavananji Maharaj has said |
| 04:30:54 | that satsaṅg, service, and sacrifice are |
| 04:30:57 | the three principle requisites for world peace. |
| 04:31:02 | Service cleans the mind and makes it |
| 04:31:04 | pure and free from attachment and jealousy, |
| 04:31:07 | resulting in tolerance and understanding. |
| 04:31:12 | Vedic ṛṣis were poets full of some lame ideas. |
| 04:31:15 | Love bubbled in their hearts, and it came out |
| 04:31:18 | now and then in the shape of Vedic hymns. |
| 04:31:22 | All the four Vedas, that is, Ṛgveda, Yajurveda, Sāmaveda, |
| 04:31:25 | Atharvaveda, are full of some line points. |
| 04:31:28 | To sum up, peace and permanent peace are the goal of the Vedas. |
| 04:31:33 | Vedic ṛṣis instruct everyone to lead a |
| 04:31:36 | life full of love, nonviolence, and friendship, |
| 04:31:40 | because this is the only way to attain peace. |
| 04:31:43 | The Ṛṣi of Atharvada has given us the |
| 04:31:46 | following prayer to be recited daily in our lives |
| 04:31:49 | to keep us on the right track of peaceful coexistence. |
| 04:31:56 | Let there be peace in the sky and in the mid-air. |
| 04:32:00 | Let there be peace on earth and in the water. |
| 04:32:03 | Let there be peace in the herbs, in plants, and in forest trees. |
| 04:32:08 | Let there be peace in all Devas. May Devas bestow peace upon us all. |
| 04:32:13 | May there be peace all around us. |
| 04:32:17 | Oṁ Sarve Bhavantu Sukhināḥ, Sarve Santu Nirmāyāḥ, |
| 04:32:21 | Sarve Bhadrāṇi Paśyantu, Mā Kaścit Dukhabhāgbhavet. |
| 04:32:25 | Om Śānti, Śānti, Śānti. |
| 04:32:28 | And the last of our four overseas speakers is Dr. |
| 04:32:38 | Lairadhar Gupta, who is an Ayurvedic doctor. |
| 04:33:08 | Bhakta vāsam īśvare nityam ayyukā mārtha seḍḍāye sarve |
| 04:33:22 | bhavantu sukhinaḥ sarve santu nirāmayāḥ sarve |
| 04:33:32 | bhadrāṇi paśyantu mā kaścid duḥkha bhāg bhavet. |
| 04:33:40 | My deep respect to the mother earth who gave |
| 04:33:52 | me birth, and my deep respect to His Holiness Swami. |
| 04:34:03 | Jī Mahārāj and Yoga in Daily Life, |
| 04:34:09 | who gives me the opportunity to share the Āyurvedic wisdom, |
| 04:34:15 | or the Āyurvedic view, to see how we can |
| 04:34:20 | get help in climate change, what to do. |
| 04:34:28 | This morning session, I have a deep respect for |
| 04:34:31 | all my speakers, those who are scientists, economists, businessmen, |
| 04:34:35 | and politicians. |
| 04:34:37 | They are presenting their intellectual demonstrations |
| 04:34:43 | with their hard effort. They have prepared lots of material. |
| 04:34:48 | That was wonderful, but I see |
| 04:34:52 | they are all full of pressure |
| 04:34:55 | and stress, worried about what to do. |
| 04:34:59 | They were not able to give a single suggestion on what to do. |
| 04:35:04 | Whatever worry was there, which I see on their face, |
| 04:35:10 | The economy, the business, or the political grounds are under threat. |
| 04:35:18 | If they do anything, why? Why has it happened? |
| 04:35:26 | Climate is what? Climate is nature. |
| 04:35:29 | It is composed of natural elements, |
| 04:35:33 | as my previous speaker has said, told about |
| 04:35:37 | it: earth, water, ether, air, and fire. This, |
| 04:35:41 | whatever we have available on the globe, |
| 04:35:46 | is from the earth. All the scientists, my dear friend, |
| 04:35:50 | those who are from us, they are only working |
| 04:35:55 | on the elements which are available in nature. |
| 04:35:58 | Nobody can create anything extra without nature. |
| 04:36:03 | We have to understand that nature cannot be |
| 04:36:07 | unnatural to us. When we say "natural disaster,"it is |
| 04:36:12 | just like that. We are yelling at God or |
| 04:36:17 | at spirituality or at something bad happening. |
| 04:36:20 | Thousands and thousands of people die when the tsunami comes, |
| 04:36:23 | and we get scared about it. |
| 04:36:27 | What is this? The last 200 years is the major problem growing. |
| 04:36:32 | Most of my scientists, those who are |
| 04:36:36 | giving big, big graphs on behalf of their evidence, |
| 04:36:40 | they're showing how much big |
| 04:36:44 | a population graph is growing faster, right? |
| 04:36:50 | Everybody is worried about how fast our |
| 04:36:53 | number of people is increasing on the globe. |
| 04:36:57 | They are giving how much carbon, how much gas problem, all the |
| 04:37:05 | problems they have sold. This is the imbalances. This is the imbalance, |
| 04:37:14 | or out of balance practice. |
| 04:37:16 | Being an Āyurvedic doctor, I have traveled around. |
| 04:37:19 | The world lasts 15 years, and try to |
| 04:37:23 | see the life around the world. We look color different, |
| 04:37:27 | but life is the same in the heart. |
| 04:37:32 | People love, people hate, people are jealous, |
| 04:37:35 | people are angry, people have friendly relations. |
| 04:37:38 | Everywhere around the world, |
| 04:37:40 | the same kind of activity. My dear Maori friends, |
| 04:37:44 | they speak in the Maori language. |
| 04:37:47 | My dear English friends, they speak in the English language, |
| 04:37:50 | and I speak in the Hindi language. They have different, |
| 04:37:52 | different languages, but love does not. |
| 04:37:57 | We need the language of unity in diversity. |
| 04:38:01 | That needs love. To whom to love first? We have to |
| 04:38:06 | love our nature, and then our passionate nature will be under control. |
| 04:38:10 | Our passionate awareness will be under |
| 04:38:15 | control of our sāttvic awareness. And then whoever |
| 04:38:19 | is working in the field of the earth, |
| 04:38:24 | they definitely have a sattvic vision, a goodness vision, |
| 04:38:28 | on how to deal with the problem without creating another problem. |
| 04:38:33 | This is very important. We try |
| 04:38:37 | to find the solution for one problem, and then after 30 years |
| 04:38:41 | we create another problem. My previous friend was telling, "For the |
| 04:38:44 | last 30 years we have been trying to |
| 04:38:47 | control it, the carbon, but the carbon rate |
| 04:38:49 | is increasing."We have tried to change one element to one molecule |
| 04:38:53 | to another molecule, but we are not able to fix the problem. |
| 04:38:57 | Change is the nature. My body is |
| 04:39:01 | also changing. I have been coming to New Zealand for the last 15 years. |
| 04:39:04 | People say you look young, some people say you get old. |
| 04:39:08 | I have seen—I was a little baby, I have not seen, |
| 04:39:13 | but people told me I was a little baby. |
| 04:39:14 | I have not seen, I have to believe it, or it is a truth I |
| 04:39:19 | don't know, but I have to believe it because my mother told me too. |
| 04:39:24 | That you were that much anyway, |
| 04:39:27 | so I grow and grow and... I think I am the same, |
| 04:39:32 | and I am the same, and I am deteriorating my |
| 04:39:35 | physical body. My physical body is changing day |
| 04:39:38 | by day, and in the next 40 years, I think I will deteriorate more. |
| 04:39:42 | Then it will be hard for me to |
| 04:39:45 | come up the stairs here. This is also change. |
| 04:39:48 | But we have to not worry about this change, |
| 04:39:52 | because then further new life is coming. Further new baby is coming. |
| 04:39:59 | Now we want to produce our baby, get genetic disorders. |
| 04:40:03 | Nowadays the common problems are coming. |
| 04:40:06 | The babies are born with a disease that is called hereditary disease. |
| 04:40:11 | We are accepting, "My grandparents have diabetes, |
| 04:40:13 | so you definitely have diabetes." |
| 04:40:15 | Your grandparents have cholesterol, so you definitely have cholesterol. |
| 04:40:19 | So we are transforming our genetic codes into the pollution. |
| 04:40:26 | We are creating lots of pollution within our body. |
| 04:40:30 | Then how can we be relaxed here? How can we have less anxiety in the brain? |
| 04:40:35 | The brain, which we made by the food that we eat. Now, this food |
| 04:40:40 | I produce on behalf of oxytocin to grow, you |
| 04:40:44 | know, I was buying a kozak, or the squash. |
| 04:40:48 | In India, normally it takes one month to |
| 04:40:52 | grow that much, and the farmer is selling big, big ones, and I say, |
| 04:40:56 | "You get big, big squash quickly."He says, |
| 04:41:00 | "I have a 50-50 paisa injection, which I |
| 04:41:04 | buy from the market and put in the plant, and then |
| 04:41:08 | it can make 2 kg, so I get 40 rupees. |
| 04:41:12 | I mean, it can grow in 7 days, so all glories to science." |
| 04:41:16 | But I was prescribing to my patient to take the cucumber juice, |
| 04:41:21 | and my patient is taking cucumber juice to have kidney relief. |
| 04:41:25 | My patient got kidney disease because, |
| 04:41:29 | by this injecting, that's taking out the lead from the earth |
| 04:41:34 | more and creating the problem. I'm not blaming the science. |
| 04:41:38 | Science has a great deal to do with life. |
| 04:41:40 | If science had not created the jet, I would |
| 04:41:42 | never have been to New Zealand twenty-five times. |
| 04:41:44 | I have been regularly coming, and I'm staying here 10 or 20 days more. |
| 04:41:50 | We will share the knowledge with you about what to do. |
| 04:41:54 | Balancing the environment. |
| 04:41:58 | If we balance our physical body by yoga in daily life, balancing our |
| 04:42:03 | physical humors, that helps us in whatever we |
| 04:42:07 | are going to do, ecologically. I have my friend; |
| 04:42:11 | he is growing his own carrots, his own potatoes, |
| 04:42:15 | and his own vegetables in his garden. He |
| 04:42:18 | He started, and he is good at controlling |
| 04:42:21 | his cholesterol levels within his body. I have |
| 04:42:24 | my friend Nagin Bhai, who was just giving me |
| 04:42:27 | the information at lunch. Through certain practices of self-discipline, |
| 04:42:29 | he has controlled his diabetes. |
| 04:42:32 | I have not given any medicine, and he is saying. |
| 04:42:36 | So what I'm saying, I'm just taking these examples, |
| 04:42:39 | which are around the world, I have |
| 04:42:41 | from my students and friends. The same way, |
| 04:42:44 | little by little, we all are here. Start a garden |
| 04:42:48 | in your house, in your orchard, wherever you have. |
| 04:42:51 | Two hours for the gym, which you go |
| 04:42:55 | to for exercise, just do some weekend work in your house. |
| 04:42:58 | You have your fresh, healthy things, |
| 04:43:00 | then you have a healthy īḍā. A healthy body keeps a healthy mind and |
| 04:43:04 | makes you wealthy and wise. Simple living and high |
| 04:43:08 | thinking is the key to our living |
| 04:43:10 | and development to fight with the climate, |
| 04:43:12 | global warming. Thank you very much |
| 04:43:16 | for listening peacefully, and thank you to my audience. Thank you |
| 04:43:20 | very much. To demonstrate that this conference |
| 04:43:32 | is ecologically friendly, would you please return your plastic tags |
| 04:43:35 | to the reception desk out there |
| 04:43:37 | when you leave, and also any bottles, |
| 04:43:39 | water bottles too? They will be recycled. |
| 04:43:42 | It's my very great pleasure now to introduce John Joyce, |
| 04:43:44 | who is the President of Yoga in Daily Life New Zealand. John. |
| 04:44:14 | Well, His Holiness Swami Mahāśwarananda, praṇāmas. |
| 04:44:20 | To all the honoured guests, it's been a great pleasure having you, |
| 04:44:25 | so thank you for coming, and my greetings to you |
| 04:44:28 | on behalf of Yoga in Daily Life New Zealand. |
| 04:44:32 | My job is to give thanks to some of the people. |
| 04:44:36 | Well, in fact, that's probably—that is an impossible task, |
| 04:44:38 | as I realized as I began writing |
| 04:44:40 | down the people I needed to thank. |
| 04:44:42 | The list got bigger and bigger and bigger, |
| 04:44:44 | so simply, thank God. Now, |
| 04:44:49 | back to individual people. Particularly, first, I would like |
| 04:44:54 | to thank the Tangata Whenua, the other Māori people, the people |
| 04:44:58 | that invited us onto the land and |
| 04:45:00 | the stage, and we've made a wonderful connection. |
| 04:45:02 | With them, over the time that they've been here, |
| 04:45:06 | we thank them for opening the conference |
| 04:45:07 | and for actually inviting them onto their land. |
| 04:45:10 | They are the guardians of this land; they're not the owners of this land. |
| 04:45:13 | They remind us that they are the guardians of the land for their ancestors |
| 04:45:17 | and the guardians of the land for their future generations. |
| 04:45:22 | So, thank you to them. |
| 04:45:24 | I would also like to thank the speakers |
| 04:45:27 | who have particularly come from a long distance. |
| 04:45:32 | It's easy enough to make a little bit of |
| 04:45:34 | time and effort when we're coming from a short distance, |
| 04:45:36 | somewhere in New Zealand, either here or from another city. |
| 04:45:42 | But when you start making an effort to come to a conference like this, |
| 04:45:45 | and you're coming from Australia, or you're coming from Canada, |
| 04:45:49 | or you're coming from Europe—many have come from Europe—there |
| 04:45:52 | are people that have come from the USA. |
| 04:45:54 | That's a huge commitment in time, effort, and money. |
| 04:45:58 | So we greatly appreciate that. |
| 04:46:00 | You're adding so much color and flavor to this conference. Thank you. |
| 04:46:13 | I'd like to thank you. |
| 04:46:15 | Without you, of course, as an audience, we wouldn't have a conference. |
| 04:46:18 | So, thank you also for taking the time and effort to come along. |
| 04:46:22 | We appreciate that. |
| 04:46:30 | You can give yourself a good round of applause. |
| 04:46:34 | Now, also we have the people that have made a financial commitment |
| 04:46:37 | to the actual conference itself. We have the sponsors. |
| 04:46:41 | We've already talked about some people who |
| 04:46:43 | have sponsored their time and effort. |
| 04:46:44 | That's wonderful. |
| 04:46:45 | We have some other people who have actually sponsored money, |
| 04:46:47 | who have actually paid money, and we greatly appreciate them. |
| 04:46:50 | As we all know now, the realities of the |
| 04:46:53 | world are, we simply can't run something like this |
| 04:46:54 | unless the sponsors dip into their pockets and provide some money for us. |
| 04:46:59 | So, to that end, we would like to |
| 04:47:04 | thank Global Immigration Services, Nagambai Patel, and Nalini |
| 04:47:08 | Patel for their sponsorship. We've got a list, |
| 04:47:16 | so if you could just hold off, we'll acknowledge |
| 04:47:24 | them at the end. We would also like to |
| 04:47:27 | thank Honda Cars. We had a talk earlier today |
| 04:47:30 | about how this hybrid car was producing |
| 04:47:34 | something like two and a half or three |
| 04:47:37 | litres per hundred kilometres. Honda, if you |
| 04:47:40 | didn't see, has a car out there at |
| 04:47:42 | a very reasonable price, around $30,000, brand new, |
| 04:47:46 | that now has four and a half litres per |
| 04:47:49 | 4.5 litres per 100 kilometres, so that's a considerable difference. |
| 04:47:55 | It's probably half of what the average family car is doing right now. |
| 04:47:59 | So Honda is making an effort. Some of these businesses that are helping us |
| 04:48:02 | from the Sustainable Business Network and others are making an effort |
| 04:48:06 | to try and make a difference. |
| 04:48:07 | Along with them, we have the Hotel Intercontinental, |
| 04:48:10 | which we really appreciate the input they've put in. |
| 04:48:14 | Green cabs, you'll see them running around the city. |
| 04:48:16 | They're running hybrid electric petrol cars. |
| 04:48:18 | Also, we have the people who are providing the printing, |
| 04:48:23 | Neil Prentice; we'd like to thank them. |
| 04:48:27 | The people that are providing up there somewhere, the camera crews, |
| 04:48:31 | they have also given their time and energy to this conference. |
| 04:48:35 | We have Hamish and Anne from Flying |
| 04:48:41 | Saucer Productions, and we have eVisions, Richard Humphreys. |
| 04:48:48 | Thank you both to you who are providing for |
| 04:48:50 | us a DVD at the end of this conference, |
| 04:48:52 | which we're very happy to let you know about. Just contact the |
| 04:48:56 | organizers through Yoga and Daily Life, |
| 04:48:58 | and we can give you, perhaps not give, |
| 04:49:01 | but we can provide to you a DVD of the conference. To Embassy Candles also, |
| 04:49:09 | who provided their goods. So thank you; |
| 04:49:12 | those are the main sponsors. We also |
| 04:49:16 | have a whole lot of donors, so I |
| 04:49:17 | won't list them, but there are people who have |
| 04:49:19 | given their individual money. |
| 04:49:20 | It's slightly different, giving your own personal money as |
| 04:49:23 | opposed to business money, so we really appreciate |
| 04:49:26 | those people, the donors, and there are a |
| 04:49:28 | few of them. We greatly appreciate that. |
| 04:49:31 | And now, to the organizing committee themselves. |
| 04:49:35 | Thank you for all of the time and effort. |
| 04:49:37 | There are lots of other people outside of the |
| 04:49:39 | organizing committee who have come and put in a |
| 04:49:41 | lot of time. We appreciate that. We'll go further |
| 04:49:43 | into that some other time. I'd like to |
| 04:49:46 | thank Noel Chair, our chair. Thank you, Noel, |
| 04:49:49 | for the time and effort you put in. |
| 04:49:53 | Now, one person though, I wonder if you could—I'll |
| 04:49:57 | ask you to come up on stage. She's the person who's put all the, |
| 04:50:01 | not all of the effort, but a lot of effort into organising the conference, |
| 04:50:04 | and a lot of her personal time. It's Leslie Meadows. Is Leslie there? |
| 04:50:09 | Can Leslie come up on stage? |
| 04:50:43 | No, one other thing we have for you: we have a declaration. |
| 04:50:51 | It's a declaration of the World Peace Summit. |
| 04:50:56 | We have it available for all of you to sign. |
| 04:50:59 | Most of the speakers have signed this declaration, |
| 04:51:01 | and our VIPs. We're going to present it |
| 04:51:04 | to a United Nations summit that's going to be |
| 04:51:06 | here in Wellington in the next month, in June, |
| 04:51:09 | as our feelings and what has been agreed by |
| 04:51:12 | the main speakers as the topics we want to. |
| 04:51:14 | Present to them, so we're going to leave it |
| 04:51:16 | outside on the table. If you could sign |
| 04:51:18 | it and put your country name beside it, |
| 04:51:20 | we'd greatly appreciate it. The more names and |
| 04:51:22 | countries we have there, you know, the better |
| 04:51:25 | it is. I'll just read to you a couple of |
| 04:51:29 | passages from the declaration. You will get to be able |
| 04:51:33 | to read it all yourself. It's the declaration |
| 04:51:37 | of the World Peace Summit 2008 from the Swāmī |
| 04:51:41 | Madhavānanda World Peace Council held in Wellington, New Zealand. |
| 04:51:46 | Today we stand at a decisive |
| 04:51:48 | juncture in U.S. history, a time when humanity |
| 04:51:52 | must choose its future. The aim of this summit |
| 04:51:56 | is to awaken the consciousness of people to the |
| 04:51:58 | most significant issues that challenge our world, specifically climate |
| 04:52:01 | change and the protection |
| 04:52:03 | and preservation of the environment. |
| 04:52:06 | World peace, cultural preservation, education, health, and youth. |
| 04:52:11 | To this end, we, the undersigned, |
| 04:52:15 | declare our commitment to and realization of |
| 04:52:19 | the values of the United Nations |
| 04:52:22 | Millennium Development Goals and Earth Charter, |
| 04:52:25 | and affirm our principle in support of the following conclusions. |
| 04:52:29 | That result from this 7th International World Peace Summit. |
| 04:52:34 | We have ten conclusions. |
| 04:52:37 | The first is that we must |
| 04:52:39 | nurture our planet and trust for future generations. |
| 04:52:45 | That there is a collaboration |
| 04:52:47 | between conservatism and sustainable development. |
| 04:52:49 | So just to explain, that second principle is to advance the need |
| 04:52:53 | for the exceptional management and |
| 04:52:55 | conservation of the Earth's natural resources, |
| 04:52:57 | whilst wisely sustaining modern progress and development. A balance. |
| 04:53:04 | We have respect for life in all its diversities. |
| 04:53:07 | The fourth principle is we need holistic education |
| 04:53:11 | for our youth and, of course, for ourselves. |
| 04:53:15 | The fifth is to uphold a global culture of non-violence and peace. |
| 04:53:19 | The sixth is that we support the United Nations |
| 04:53:24 | as an indispensable central force for global peace and development. |
| 04:53:28 | The seventh is that there must be social |
| 04:53:31 | and economic equality to affirm gender equality |
| 04:53:35 | and to work collectively to ensure universal |
| 04:53:39 | access to education, health, and economic opportunity. |
| 04:53:45 | The eighth is that the youth are our |
| 04:53:48 | culture of tomorrow, and we need to acknowledge this. |
| 04:53:53 | The ninth, secure the rights of minorities and indigenous persons. |
| 04:54:00 | And the tenth, to preserve human rights and human dignity, |
| 04:54:04 | to support the dignity of each human being |
| 04:54:06 | and acknowledge the right of each person |
| 04:54:08 | to live in security with freedom of choice, |
| 04:54:10 | access to food, clean water, shelter, education, and health. |
| 04:54:16 | And we have a little conclusion, a concluding paragraph. |
| 04:54:19 | May this World Peace Summit be an event |
| 04:54:21 | remembered for the awakening of reverence for life |
| 04:54:23 | and protection of Mother Earth. |
| 04:54:25 | In the midst of a rich diversity of cultures and life forms, |
| 04:54:29 | let each of us remember we are one human family with a common destiny. |
| 04:54:35 | So if you're at all interested in supporting what we've done here today, |
| 04:54:41 | please sign the declaration out front. |
| 04:54:44 | I now have great pleasure and a great |
| 04:54:53 | privilege in introducing our speaker for the final address. |
| 04:55:05 | His Holiness Mahāmaṇḍaleśvara Hari Mahān Svāmī Māheśvarānanda, |
| 04:55:09 | the initiator of the World Peace Summit, |
| 04:55:11 | the founder of the Yoga in Daily Life System. |
| 04:55:13 | Please welcome Swāmījī. |
| 04:56:18 | Shanti, Shanti, adoration to the cosmic light, |
| 04:56:30 | Lord of our hearts, omniscient and omnipresent, |
| 04:56:44 | In his divine presence, my dear brothers and sisters. |
| 04:56:56 | This day was one of the beautiful days |
| 04:57:03 | of this year, a day of wisdom, divine thoughts, |
| 04:57:10 | the quality, the best part, the essence. |
| 04:57:20 | All the scholars, scientists, doctors, engineers, |
| 04:57:31 | And a very spiritual and great personality |
| 04:57:41 | like Dr. Pushpa Garg, who spoke about |
| 04:57:53 | the Vedas. The scientists, what they spoke, |
| 04:58:01 | there were both questions and answers. It was |
| 04:58:09 | like poetry, and to understand poetry is not a |
| 04:58:14 | job for everyone. It was fantastic. |
| 04:58:21 | Indeed, in my opinion, they gave the answer, the solution |
| 04:58:26 | of what to do. I thank you very much for |
| 04:58:31 | coming and for making this beautiful event a success. |
| 04:58:40 | According to the Vedas and according to the |
| 04:58:44 | Yugas: Satya Yuga, Dvāpara Yuga, and Kali Yuga. The great seers, |
| 04:58:55 | the ṛṣis, told long |
| 04:59:02 | ago what we have to expect in this Kali Yuga time. Exactly what |
| 04:59:12 | is happening is what they told. They told that if we |
| 04:59:21 | do not follow the life principles, then we will face these disasters. Well, |
| 04:59:33 | as our dear friend |
| 04:59:36 | Vedya Ānanda Gupta said, to lead a life in harmony with nature. |
| 04:59:53 | Mahāprabhujī, my grandmaster said, "Don't go against the nature, |
| 04:59:59 | otherwise you will suffer the consequences."And that's what we are doing. |
| 05:00:06 | Last few days, I was thinking about the rising of the sea level. |
| 05:00:16 | The melting of all glaciers and snow. |
| 05:00:19 | I think it is not only that one reason. |
| 05:00:27 | The reason is this also, with the flood and the rain, |
| 05:00:35 | What we call the earth slides into the ocean too. |
| 05:00:42 | Because we chipped off the forest, the bushes, as Dr. Timmy Achivavi said. |
| 05:00:52 | The first step, in my opinion, |
| 05:00:55 | is to plant the native bushes and not |
| 05:00:58 | only the big trees to protect the mountains. |
| 05:01:07 | Well, this question and answer was also |
| 05:01:12 | given at the time of this climate change |
| 05:01:17 | and global warming, the Nobel Peace Prize, the Indian professor. |
| 05:01:25 | This problem can be solved if humans become vegetarian. |
| 05:01:33 | We are talking about life on the earth, balancing of life, |
| 05:01:38 | but we know the biggest problem, the problem, is meat consuming. |
| 05:01:51 | Four million people in New Zealand and |
| 05:01:56 | over 60 million sheep and cows, for what? |
| 05:02:03 | Four million people consume so much milk and so much wool? No. |
| 05:02:11 | And that's why the condition about the |
| 05:02:16 | environment is what New Zealand is suffering. |
| 05:02:19 | I would advise all to become vegetarian. |
| 05:02:29 | When? Right now. Evening, dinner, create your meat. |
| 05:02:39 | If we really would like to do something and become an example for others. |
| 05:02:49 | In the last two centuries, humans began to make a big mistake. |
| 05:02:56 | And especially all the speakers. |
| 05:02:59 | Always, they say humanity and human service and |
| 05:03:05 | human life. It means we've made a big discrimination |
| 05:03:12 | towards other creatures. It is our biggest mistake |
| 05:03:19 | that we think we are the greatest one. No, |
| 05:03:25 | between our life and the life of a |
| 05:03:31 | Mosquito, no different. If you think, then it's wrong. |
| 05:03:37 | As Dr. Pushpa said, we are all made out |
| 05:03:44 | of five elements, and we all represent one God, |
| 05:03:50 | the one Creator. |
| 05:03:53 | And that's why Gurujī said often, one in all and all in one. |
| 05:04:00 | For example, you take a few cups and fill them |
| 05:04:04 | with water and put them in the garden. In the evening, |
| 05:04:09 | the moon is shining; you look in your cup, |
| 05:04:12 | and in every cup there will be the moon. |
| 05:04:15 | 20 cups, 20 moons, but in the sky we see |
| 05:04:20 | only one moon. It is that one reflects in all, |
| 05:04:25 | and all are connected to that one. So, one God |
| 05:04:30 | in every creature. You have no right to kill them |
| 05:04:36 | or to destroy them, as Dr. Sāv said, even... |
| 05:04:41 | That you said, "I don't want to tell anything," |
| 05:04:46 | you are committing already the sin. If you are doing, |
| 05:04:50 | if you advise, or you have no |
| 05:04:54 | resistance—all in these three cases we are involved |
| 05:05:00 | in that karma. So, dear brothers and sisters. |
| 05:05:05 | We have learned so much, and if I will speak more, |
| 05:05:10 | then it's like this: to show a candle flame to the sun. |
| 05:05:15 | The experts, the scientists, they spoke, and now we have |
| 05:05:20 | a lot of material to work on for one year, |
| 05:05:25 | until the next conference will come in Budapest, Hungary. |
| 05:05:29 | I would like to thank very much our |
| 05:05:34 | entire working team of Yoga in Daily Life and |
| 05:05:38 | others who were working for 18 months. |
| 05:05:44 | Can you imagine? Eighteen months to make |
| 05:05:51 | this beautiful conference, it was not easy. |
| 05:05:58 | And you know, my best friend, the |
| 05:06:02 | president of Croatia, he used to say, "Swamijī, |
| 05:06:07 | it's easy to speak or say something |
| 05:06:16 | to the terrorist, but not to the protocol." |
| 05:06:25 | It's easy to deal with the terrorists, but not with the protocols. |
| 05:06:33 | So they had nights and nights, sleepless nights, |
| 05:06:38 | to make the protocols: who should speak, when should speak. |
| 05:06:44 | Many wanted to speak. They were unhappy they couldn't. |
| 05:06:47 | Many want to speak more. |
| 05:06:49 | They can't, because everyone who came came with a lot of |
| 05:06:53 | wisdom to give us, and we have to respect everyone. |
| 05:06:57 | So, in case someone didn't get the chance, |
| 05:07:04 | I personally say, from myself, |
| 05:07:07 | sorry—apologies—and next time you will get more. |
| 05:07:11 | We realize that it's not only a one-day conference, we need the |
| 05:07:15 | whole weekend or a few days, then we will have more time. |
| 05:07:20 | So, thank you very much for your understanding. |
| 05:07:22 | So I want to thank all the organizers and the teams. |
| 05:07:26 | They did the best work, and I pray |
| 05:07:29 | to God for their good health and divine blessings. |
| 05:07:34 | Also, our dear brother, the gyāraṇā, John Joyce, |
| 05:07:40 | He was the one who was working and inspiring to have a conference here. |
| 05:07:47 | And this light, divine light, which was brought here by Nagin Bhai Patel, |
| 05:07:52 | that light we have here. |
| 05:07:54 | Well, you see, so I told you, it's not easy to be the head of the protocol. |
| 05:08:06 | And in this minute, there is a head of the protocol, someone. |
| 05:08:13 | Time doesn't wait for anyone, and protocol doesn't make any compromises. |
| 05:08:21 | And that is the most beautiful part of today. |
| 05:08:25 | Everything went very soft, very beautifully. |
| 05:08:28 | And that is a perfect one who guided us, |
| 05:08:36 | you call MC and we call moderator, our dear brother, Mr. |
| 05:08:43 | Noel Cheer. We thank you very, very much. Also, |
| 05:08:52 | we had some among us, the president of |
| 05:09:01 | the Multicultural Union of Croatia, Divya Jyoti. She would... |
| 05:09:06 | Also, I would like to speak, but I told |
| 05:09:11 | her we will speak next time. So, thank you |
| 05:09:16 | very much for your understanding, and I want to thank |
| 05:09:21 | the President of Croatia for writing such a beautiful |
| 05:09:24 | letter of inspiration for all of us and his... |
| 05:09:27 | Excellency, the High Commissioner of India, and all my |
| 05:09:33 | dear brothers and sisters, thank you. We are |
| 05:09:38 | one; we are not two. One God is |
| 05:09:44 | reflecting in everyone. Ahiṃsā paramo dharma. The highest |
| 05:09:50 | principle is ahiṃsā. Imagine you catch a fish |
| 05:09:57 | out of the water. What happens to that fish? |
| 05:10:05 | She's struggling for her life, immense pain. |
| 05:10:11 | Fish never speak to us. But in that case, |
| 05:10:17 | she's moving her mouth, speaking, "Oh man, what have I |
| 05:10:21 | done to you? Let me be free in my world." |
| 05:10:26 | Any animal which will be killed knows minimum |
| 05:10:34 | 48 hours ahead, and the fear comes in the |
| 05:10:42 | whole body, and all gland systems are filled with |
| 05:10:48 | The fear, well, sooner or later one has to die. |
| 05:10:54 | That poor animal is killed, but that fear goes |
| 05:10:59 | into our body, and that's why nowadays many people |
| 05:11:05 | have psychic problems. And as one of our brothers |
| 05:11:11 | spoke about spirituality, and now we all know who's... |
| 05:11:16 | Like a swami's priest, pundit, or pujārī, |
| 05:11:21 | how many people come to the temples or the church? |
| 05:11:26 | Day by day we are closing the churches, ashrams and temples are empty. |
| 05:11:34 | Why? Because people are simply afraid to know themselves and God. |
| 05:11:45 | Running away, but to run away is not the solution. |
| 05:11:51 | You cannot run away. Finally, you will get back. |
| 05:11:59 | So it's not only the problem of the climate changes. |
| 05:12:06 | My friend Timmy said, "Swamiji, look, |
| 05:12:09 | yesterday the sun was shining and today it is raining." |
| 05:12:13 | Is climate changed? I said, "Yes, thank you." |
| 05:12:18 | Every day, the climate is changing. |
| 05:12:21 | Similarly, the human climate is changing. |
| 05:12:24 | How you think? Mano mātra jagata. |
| 05:12:26 | How you think, like there is a world in front of you. |
| 05:12:30 | We have to learn to love each other, love other creatures, and love trees. |
| 05:12:37 | That's why in India you said, "Oh, |
| 05:12:40 | there are so many goddesses."I said, "Yes." |
| 05:12:43 | And there are so many holy, I said, yes. The whole of India is holy. |
| 05:12:50 | Even each atom, the small grain of sand, is holy because |
| 05:12:54 | that is the holy dust of the holy incarnation and goddess. |
| 05:13:00 | Cow is holy. Buffalo is holy. Snake is holy. Scorpion is holy. |
| 05:13:06 | Trees, of course. |
| 05:13:13 | The lake, the river, the ocean are compared to a holy saint. |
| 05:13:24 | Tarwar is a tree. The tree has the same position as a holy saint. |
| 05:13:34 | And the rain is holy. Rain doesn't make a difference. |
| 05:13:40 | The difference is that I will rain only where the clean ground is. |
| 05:13:43 | Where there is dirt, I will not go, no. |
| 05:13:46 | And the saints who preach or speak for all, |
| 05:13:50 | not only for humans but for the entire planet, |
| 05:13:54 | so now what you do? There is a philosophy of dharma |
| 05:13:59 | and karma. As Dr. Saw said, dharma is the truth, |
| 05:14:06 | the right; adharma is unreality, the sin; karma. |
| 05:14:13 | It is good deeds and ku karma, that is a sin, |
| 05:14:19 | so we are involved in dharma and karma philosophy. |
| 05:14:25 | So now you have your free choice, which kind of meal you will have today. |
| 05:14:34 | Dear brothers and sisters, thank you. |
| 05:14:36 | For the speaker, there is very little time, but for you, |
| 05:14:39 | it is very hard, sitting on the hard chairs all day. |
| 05:14:42 | I have compassion for you. Thank you very much. |
| 05:14:47 | And with this, I thank you and all |
| 05:14:50 | the organizers of Yoga and Daily Life and others, |
| 05:14:53 | and from Śrī Svāmī Madhavānanda and the World Peace Councils. |
| 05:14:57 | Also, many, many travel from far countries, |
| 05:15:03 | from Karnataka, from America, San Francisco, New York, Europe, India, |
| 05:15:10 | from Australia, only to come and |
| 05:15:15 | hear you all, dear New Zealander people, |
| 05:15:20 | and all this expertise, the scientists, and we got a lot of ideas. |
| 05:15:25 | And a lot of work to do for our beautiful planet. |
| 05:15:30 | God bless you. I pray for your good health. |
| 05:15:34 | I pray for this country and especially |
| 05:15:38 | for my dear brothers and sisters, the Maoris, |
| 05:15:43 | for the ceremony which they made here and in other places. |
| 05:15:47 | Ramathi, it was beautiful. It reminded me of India, |
| 05:15:51 | when a saint or some respected person comes |
| 05:15:55 | to a village, they accept them. Then, a beautiful ceremony like this. |
| 05:16:01 | Thank you, and may God protect you and |
| 05:16:04 | your land and all your friends who are living. |
| 05:16:07 | In your land, thank you very much. |
This text is transcribed and grammar corrected by AI. Double click the desired cue to position the recording just before the sentence is uttered.
The text contains hyperlinks in bold to three authoritative books on yoga, written by humans, to clarify the context of the lecture:
- Yoga in Daily Life - The System
Paramhans Swami Maheshwarananda. Ibera Verlag, Vienna, 2000. ISBN 978-3-85052-000-3 - The Hidden Power in Humans - Chakras and Kundalini
Paramhans Swami Maheshwarananda. Ibera Verlag, Vienna, 2004. ISBN 978-3-85052-197-0 - Lila Amrit - The Divine Life of Sri Mahaprabhuji
Paramhans Swami Madhavananda. Int. Sri Deep Madhavananda Ashram Fellowship, Vienna, 1998. ISBN 3-85052-104-4